Dr Maria Shagina
@mshagina.bsky.social
Diamond-Brown Senior Research Fellow for Economic Sanctions, Standards and Strategy, IISS | Ex @FIIA_fi and UniZurich | Economic statecraft, sanctions & energy.
Excited to share my latest piece on American state capitalism and critical-mineral diplomacy, which now runs on three tracks: 🏈 “America First” deals; 🤝 Bilateral agreements; 🌍 Pax Silica, a coalition-of-capabilities framework. www.iiss.org/online-analy...
My final publication of the year is on supply-chain resilience as the backbone of economic security. Without resilient supply chains, no economic security, and thus no national security.
Supply-chain resilience: the foundation of economic security
Supply-chain resilience has moved from being a technical concern to the backbone of economic security. As pandemics, wars and export controls expose dangerous dependencies, Western governments are racing to map supply-chain vulnerabilities, rebuild economic resilience and rethink cooperation in an era of weaponised interdependence.
go.iiss.org
The US' growing intervention in corporate America signals a shift towards a more state-influenced capitalism–one that blends market power with political leverage, which resembles the 🇷🇺 model, where firms share profits in exchange for market access or protection. My take www.iiss.org/online-analy...
America’s quiet turn towards state capitalism
Washington’s growing intervention in corporate America signals a shift towards a more state-influenced capitalism – one that blends market power with political leverage.
iiss.org
No, the EU won't impose 100% tariffs on China overnight as Donald Trump has demanded. Here's why.
Why the EU won't hit China with the 100% tariffs that Trump wants
Donald Trump's request for 100% tariffs on China is unlikely to gather the necessary support among European Union countries. #EuropeNews
euronews.com
The recent US-China tit-for-tat over chip-design software and rare earths raises key strategic questions. Which export controls are non-negotiable and which can be used as leverage? How do US and Chinese strategic leverage compare? And how are chokepoints evolving? www.iiss.org/online-analy...
From national security to strategic leverage
As export controls evolve from national security tools to instruments of strategic leverage, the US–China strategic competition is entering a new, more transactional phase. The recent tit-for-tat over chip-design software and rare earths reveals a shifting geopolitical battleground defined by chokepoints, coalition-building, and the race to reduce dependencies.
iiss.org
Since 2019, China has been modernising its economic statecraft, beefing up one economic tool in particular – export controls. China’s recent use of export controls demonstrates the evolution of Beijing’s economic statecraft. www.iiss.org/online-analy...
"Druck auf #Putin: Haben die #Sanktionen #Russland geschadet?" Mit einigen Einschätzungen, mit @mshagina.bsky.social und Alexandra Prokopenko. Danke, Sabine Adler www.deutschlandfunk.de/druck-auf-pu...
Druck auf Putin: Haben die Sanktionen Russland geschadet?
Seit dem Angriff auf die Ukraine im Februar 2022 hat der Westen mehr als ein Dutzend Sanktionspakete gegen Russland verhängt. Sind Folgen im Land spürbar?
deutschlandfunk.de
China has been modernising its economic statecraft, beefing up one economic tool in particular – export controls. On the latest changes in China's use of export controls from me and my colleagues 👇 www.iiss.org/online-analy...
China’s use of export controls
In recent years, China has been modernising its economic statecraft and offensive toolkit, with particular attention paid to its export-control strategy.
iiss.org
Consider returning to Russia? Be prepared to pay for it. RU Avtovaz says Renault can buy back its majority stake if it pays $1.3 bn. Another bonanza for the Kremlin and Moscow is ready to leverage it: stricter demands for localization and tech transfers à la China. www.reuters.com/business/aut...
Renault's Russia buyback to cost at least $1.3 billion, says Russia's Avtovaz
Should French carmaker Renault wish to buy back its majority stake in Russia's top carmaker Avtovaz, it would have to pay at least 112.5 billion roubles ($1.3 billion) to cover investments made since selling for only one rouble in 2022, Avtovaz said.
reuters.com
How do sanctions give Washington leverage in negotiations with Moscow? And what can Europe and Ukraine do if the U.S. eases restrictions? For answers to these and other questions, Meduza spoke to researcher @mshagina.bsky.social.
‘The U.S. came to the peace talks unarmed’ Sanctions expert Maria Shagina explains how the West can use its main economic weapon in negotiations with Russia — Meduza
The U.S. and its allies have levied more than 20,000 sanctions against Russia in the three years since Moscow launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Though they’ve failed to stop the Kremlin’s…
buff.ly
On the prospects of Western corporates returning to Russia (spoiler: very low). In great company with @jakluge.de and @edwardfishman.bsky.social www.wsj.com/world/russia...
Russia’s Withering Economy Is a Tricky Place to Do Deals—Even for Trump
The country abounds in oil and mineral wealth, but in many cases it is hard to reach and the threat of intervention from the Kremlin casts a long shadow.
wsj.com
The EU is exploring more aggressively ways to seize Russia’s frozen central bank assets as a collateral to compensate for the destruction of Ukraine's energy infrastructure. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
EU Seeks Ways to Seize Part of Russia’s Frozen $280 Billion
The European Union is exploring more aggressively ways to seize Russia’s frozen central bank assets as the bloc scrambles to ensure financial and military support for Ukraine amid indications the US m...
bloomberg.com
Russia says it could concede $300bn in sovereign assets as part of the peace deal. Further evidence that Moscow wrote off the assets a long time ago, but is happy to leverage them b/c it knows the West thinks Russia cares about them. www.reuters.com/world/europe...
Exclusive: Russia could concede $300 billion in frozen assets as part of Ukraine war settlement, sources say
Russia could agree to using $300 billion of sovereign assets frozen in Europe for reconstruction in Ukraine but will insist that part of the money is spent on the one-fifth of the country that Moscow's forces control, three sources told Reuters.
reuters.com
🎶Tune in to listen to our podcast on Trump's Russia policy, sanctions and the peace deal: www.iiss.org/podcasts/sou...
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: three years on
Podcast host Meia Nouwens is joined by Dr Nigel Gould-Davies, Dr Maria Shagina and Franz-Stefan Gady to discuss the recent developments in Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine.
iiss.org
What can give the EU a seat at the table? Sanctions can play a key role here. Brussels and London can leverage their lion's share of Russian sovereign assets. www.ft.com/content/b427...
US and Russia agree to ‘lay the groundwork’ for ending Ukraine war
Negotiations were first high-level talks on the conflict since early months of Vladimir Putin’s invasion
ft.com
"Lay the groundwork for future cooperation on matters of mutual geopolitical interest and historic economic and investment opportunities which will emerge from a successful end to the conflict in Ukraine." Wtf? www.state.gov/secretary-ru...
Secretary Rubio’s Meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov - United States Department of State
The below is attributable to Spokesperson Tammy Bruce: Secretary of State Marco Rubio met with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov today as a follow up to President Donald Trump’s conversation with...
state.gov
Waltz: the negotiated exchange serves as a show of good faith from the Russians and a sign we are moving in the right direction to end the brutal and terrible war in Ukraine. Low-level exchange from Russia. The Q is what concessions the US gave in return. www.ft.com/content/00d0...
New US attorney general Bondi has disbanded DOJ's Task Force KleptoCapture responsible for enforcing sanctions on Russian oligarchs and refocused the resources to tackle cartels and transnat'l crime organisations. So much for Trump's harsh talk on Russia! www.compliancecorylated.com/news/us-atto...
US Attorney General disbands DOJ’s kleptocracy task force, curtails AML and corruption work - Compliance Corylated
US attorney general Pam Bondi disbanded the DOJ Task Force KleptoCapture and refocused the criminal division’s FCPA unit and AML section.
compliancecorylated.com
Great example, which shows the limitations of a 'smart sanctions' approach: Russia and Turkey used the nuclear project in 2022 to dance around US sanctions imposed on Russia’s central bank, with Rosatom and Gazprombank playing the key role. www.wsj.com/politics/pol...
🤦When will Europe learn from its past mistakes? It's Russia who gambled and lost its game of weaponization. Going back to business as usual on energy will not incentivise Russia to come to the negotiating table, but encourage it to double down on its maximalist goals in UA www.ft.com/content/a19a...
EU debates return to Russian gas as part of Ukraine peace deal
Advocates say reopening pipelines could help settlement with Moscow and cut energy costs
ft.com
On Trump's madman strategy: "Persuading leaders of foreign governments to yield to a demand, after all, requires not just convincing them that resisting will be punished. It also requires convincing them that yielding will actually prevent punishment."
Foreign Affairs@foreignaffairs.com · 2y agoWill Donald Trump’s erratic foreign policy make U.S. adversaries more likely to comply with Washington’s threats—or more likely to challenge the United States?
Russia's shadow fleet isn't immune to Western chokepoints: flags of convenience are convenient until the US, UK and EU exert enough pressure on them. Barbados will remove 48 ships b/c of UK sanctions, Panama will delist 68 ships sanctioned by the US. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Russian Oil Ships Hunt for New Flags to Hide From Sanctions
A chunk of Russia’s oil tanker fleet is being forced to change the flag they sail under as US and UK sanctions heap pressure on Moscow’s shipping network.
bloomberg.com
Despite all the hype, Trump is unlikely to succeed in using sanctions as leverage to bring Russia to the negotiating table. Three reasons why: www.ft.com/content/64b7...
Trump tells Putin to reach Ukraine ‘deal’ soon or US will increase sanctions
US president says Washington could impose more trade restrictions on Moscow
ft.com
The EU's finally thinking out of the box: to ensure that Russia sanctions are extended and thus to safeguard the bloc's measures on sovereign assets, Brussels' one fallback option is to utilise a wartime decree from Belgium to block the transfer of assets from the country. www.ft.com/content/3c99...
EU eyes enlisting Belgian king to help safeguard Russia sanctions
Royal wartime decree seen as fallback option to keep Russia’s frozen €190bn in EU if Hungary vetoes renewal of sanctions
ft.com
"In the past, Beijing’s responses were measured. But its words and actions are growing sharper, and the targets of its retaliatory blows are widening to include supply chain vulnerabilities, critical minerals and individual companies." www.nytimes.com/2025/01/17/b...
Facing a Flurry of U.S. Sanctions, China Prepares to Hit Back
With days until Donald Trump is sworn in, China is bracing for a trade war, aiming at industries as diverse as semiconductors, apparel and industrial plastic.
nytimes.com
In the incoming Trump admin, energy sanctions will be a key piece of leverage over Russia. The important Q is of sequencing: will Trump ramp up energy sanctions pressure ahead of negotiations or will he ease them to incentivise the oil majors to seal the deal? www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Trump Team Readies Oil Sanctions Plan for Russia Deal, Iran Squeeze
Advisers to President-elect Donald Trump are crafting a wide-ranging sanctions strategy to facilitate a Russia-Ukraine diplomatic accord in the coming months while at the same time squeezing Iran and ...
bloomberg.com
Following latest US sanctions, tanker rates from Russia to China have tripled. Higher freight costs and deeper oil discounts will push Russian crude closer to non-sanctioned crude. www.tradewindsnews.com/tankers/tank...
Tanker rates more than triple from Russia to China as US sanctions hike profit
US sanctions on tankers importing Espo crude are hitting buyers in the pocket
tradewindsnews.com
The Biden administration has issued sweeping new sanctions against Russia's energy sector, incl. measures against GazpromNeft and Surgutneftegas, more than 180 vessels, and dozens of oil traders, oilfield service providers, insurance companies, and energy officials ofac.treasury.gov/recent-actio...
Russia-related and Russia-/Ukraine-related Designations; Venezuela-related Designations; Publication of Russia-related Determinations; Issuance of Russia-related General Licenses and Frequently Asked ...
ofac.treasury.gov
"Chinese track": Due to massive problems with 🇨🇳 banks, major 🇷🇺 banks are calling for the creation of a centralised system that would simplify payment settlements. Facilitated by 🇷🇺 &🇨🇳central banks, the scheme would be linked to 11 🇨🇳 provinces. www.moscowtimes.ru/2025/01/10/k...
«Китайский трек». Крупные российские банки создали новую схему расчетов с Китаем - Русская служба The Moscow Times
moscowtimes.ru
Trump changed his claim to end the war in Ukraine from '24 hours' to 'six months': “The whole [Trump] team is obsessed with strength and looking strong, so they’re recalibrating the Ukraine approach".
Financial Times@financialtimes.com · 2y agoDonald Trump pushes back Ukraine war deadline in sign of support for Kyiv https://www.ft.com/content/989dc02e-2a13-4c21-8ad0-0b32e098c410