Note: Craig Munger apparently reported that the absentee ballot counts in Detroit aren't complete and could take hours and involve thkusands of ballots potentially. On X and I don't have a screen shot (I'm in an election night stream when I'm not posting here)

Every Michigan pollster being wrong means I've already won

There's a problem when you are projecting too soon in michigan, that's not a knock but esrly returns are not indicative of latter performance

G Elliott Morris@gelliottmorris.com · 17h ago

The numbers coming out of Detroit are not enough for Stevens. It’s a bloodbath

Every poll was wrong, they all showed huge primary margins

Weird ass primary Senate map

Anyone have a count on the transit ballot issue?

Reminder, 4 counties in michigan are different, so it'll be an hour until results come in I'd think

UAW with the numbers

UAW@uaw.org · yesterday

UAW Power! UAW members have knocked 15k doors and made 135k phone calls. We’ve turned out 112,877 UAW voters as of Sunday, 9.3% of all early votes cast in Michigan.

Okay, for MI US Senate: I've been negative on both campaigns because this is the first time I truly can't project how either candidate will play in the general. There's a good *and* a bad potentjal scenario for both major Dems and the dichotomy is frustrating me

Former local CAP Chair here, I'm not anymore but I'm proud ofnthe hardwork of my old union (don't think they're showing R1 though, miss seeing my Region 1 people)

UAW@uaw.org · yesterday

It's Election Day! As Michiganders head to the polls, our members continue to make last minute phone calls to get out the vote for working class champions like Abdul El-Sayed, Jocelyn Benson, and Donavan McKinney for Congress. Every vote matters!

Also, weird primary for MI in that either the contested top seats aren't really competitive (if Gov or Wayne Co Exec are even close it'll be a Parting of the Red Sea type event) or both campaigns have actively pissed me off (US Senate)

Oh, my personal choices for downballot this year: MI Congress 13th: Donovan McKinneu State Senate District 2: Erin Byrnes District 9: Brendan Johnson Michigan State Rep District 2: Joanna Whaley Ann arbor coty council ward 3: Ashley Hall

It's primary day Michigan. Can you feel it?!

Guesses only on the Michigan US Senate primary: EPIC-MRA did not release head to head figures for the primary, but that doesn't mean they didn't do them. That also leads me to guess that the hypothetical/likely head to heads had Stevens winning, which is why they weren't released *NEXT*

Okay with a certain Election Twitter person claiming "a leak" in the MI US Senate primary...I have the added feast or famine bonus that he loses all credibility if he's wrong, in addition to pote tially some pollsters going down? As much as I hate this primary, their are some side stories for me...

Start interactions pleasantly, even if it's with other Dems/folks center yo left/etc that you dislike. Why? Because if you start at asshole, there's no place to go if things break down. At least starting out pleasant gives you options...

RFK Jr has no training in any scientific field. He's a history major who got a law degree and worked as an environmental advocate but has never spent any meaningful time doing science, or understanding how science is done. This isn't "an alternative scientific view". It's just kooky opinions.

Aaron Rupar@atrupar.com · 3d ago

BASH: The WSJ reported the president is pressuring you to conduct studies probing the link between vaccines and autism. Is that true? RFK Jr: Did you say 'probing the link'? BASH: I'm just quoting the Wall Street Journal RFK Jr: He certainly does

Dr El-Sayed isn't getting blown out, but this isn't good either. And, unlike Mitchell Research, I do trust EPIC-MRA

Polling USA@usapolling.bsky.social · 3d ago

Michigan - Senate Polling: 🔴Rogers: 46% 🔵El-Sayed: 43% 🔵Stevens: 44% 🔴Rogers: 42% EPIC-MRA / July 31, 2026

Has EPIC-MRA contracted to a campaign this cycle or something? Kinda weird to not see a US Senate primary poll from them by now

Proviso on this: Emerson is the only one of these I believe has a decent track record. Now, I've never heard of SoCal and Tavern Research is very new (so not a good or bad track record) but Mitchell Research is shit, they're the main offender of "but Hillary led in Polling" in 2016

#StupidSuez@diplomatofnight.com · 6d ago

FOUR POLLS IN TWO DAYS Mitchell Research 🟦El-Sayed 52% 🟦Stevens 38% Emerson poll 🟢 Abdul El-Sayed 54% 🟠 Haley Stevens 39% Tavern Research Poll 🟦Abdul El-Sayed 48% 🟦Haley Stevens 37% SoCal poll 🟢 Abdul El-Sayed 56% 🟠 Haley Stevens 39%

It's impressive for the outside Michigan folks to simultaneously believe the polls showing Dr El-Sayed winning the nomination but ignore the polling showing him capable (if not outright leading) for the general election. They're the same pollings...

The positive about the MI US Sen primary: when it's done, onw or more polling companies are gonna have a Seltzer level of egg on their face (either the Dr El-Sayed is leading by a ton polls are wrong or the Stevens is leading by a ton poll is wrong...or theyre all wrong. So that'll be entertaining

Important lesson on attempting to make change and win elections: while confidence is essentially to move forward, to ensure we also don't commit harm along the way we need to ask ourselves the following: Can I be wrong? Oh yeah, I can be. Because *NEXT POST*

Okay, I'm wondering what the deal is, in the past few days I experienced a bunch of new folks seeming to discover me (at a rare of my standards, still nothjng extraordinary). Since I know my posts haven't gotten better, what happened?

After a check verifying that Sludge reporting is reliable...fuck I hate this primary sooooo much...

Sludge@sludge.bsky.social · last wk.

NEW: Haley Stevens and other Democratic campaigns are paying fundraising consultants who run a Google- and Amazon-backed nonprofit that gives Google, Meta, Palantir and other AI companies direct access to the staff writing AI legislation. readsludge.com/2026/07/29/d...

🚨 98 DAYS TO GO! 📣 #OHIO Democrats need your help! 🚨 This is an #UnlikelyHeroes page *deliberately* featuring Dems running in RED districts to boost statewide turnout & force Republicans to defend their turf. Donate today! #Blue26 secure.actblue.com/donate/oh26h...

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By the way Mitch McConnell voted against paid leave many many times

Some good news: Trump's DOJ has finally dropped its baseless prosecution of SEIU California president David Huerta for protesting ICE's brutality. This case should have never gotten this far, but its dismissal reveals how weak Trump truly is. Remember: attacking unions is a hallmark of fascism.

I worry on Michigan. We don't have to always get along (this is politics, not kindergarten) but I do worry that things are getting done on all sides that make going forward difficult. And Michigan has bucked national trends before (voting D in the mess thatwas 2002)