National Journal
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Therein lies the entire problem with “electability” arguments: They rely on polls conducted before primaries, which are imprecise, at best, at anticipating a general election outcome months later. Natalie Jackson with the latest Leading Indicators (unlocked): www.nationaljournal.com/s/732582/pol...
Polling doesn’t prove either Stevens or El-Sayed is more ‘electable’ in Michigan
The data shows a race that will hinge on currently undecided voters.
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Some fear that regardless of whether agents actually appear outside polling locations in November, the mere possibility of their arrival might dampen turnout. Erika Filter reports (unlocked): www.nationaljournal.com/s/732572/wha...
What ICE at the polls could mean for November
Get-out-the-vote groups want to assuage Latino voters’ fears of federal agents at polling stations.
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Across several questions, voters in purple states are more closely aligned with red staters than with blue staters. @charliecookdc with the latest Off to the Races: www.nationaljournal.com/s/732574/the...
The purple-state problem
Swing states might be in the ideological center, but data shows they may be closer to one end than the other.
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Senators elected this November will still be in office by the time Social Security is expected to be unable to pay full retirement benefits in 2032. David Lightman with the latest Following the Money (unlocked): www.nationaljournal.com/s/732569/whe...
When will Congress finally tackle the Social Security crisis?
While members of Congress agree there’s a funding shortage coming, there’s little movement toward fixing the problem.
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With the biggest contests set in a general-election matchup, only a handful of primaries remain competitive in the Old Dominion. Hotline has the Virginia primary primer (unlocked): www.nationaljournal.com/s/732535/iho...
Hotline's primary primer: Virginia
Everything you need to know about the Old Dominion’s primaries.
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Sen. Bill Cassidy is arguably the most prominent GOP critic of the Trump administration’s vaccine policy. But he’s still voting to advance the White House’s health nominees who come before his committee. By Nancy Vu (unlocked): www.nationaljournal.com/s/732545/the...
The contradiction at the center of Bill Cassidy's vaccine politics
The Louisiana Republican voted for Trump’s nominees to lead two major health agencies—despite his objections to past anti-vaccine rhetoric from one pick.
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The action in Kansas is on the gubernatorial front as Gov. Laura Kelly, one of the few Democratic executives in a red state, tries to muscle her chosen successor through a tough primary. Here's Hotline with the Primary Primer on Kansas (unlocked): www.nationaljournal.com/s/732537/iho...
Hotline’s primary primer: Kansas
Here’s what’s up in the Sunflower State primaries.
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The Democratic Senate primary is the biggest election in the country on Tuesday. Here's the Hotline primary primer to the Wolverine State (unlocked): www.nationaljournal.com/s/732536/iho...
Hotline’s primary primer: Michigan
What to watch in the Wolverine State’s primaries.
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The chair of the Senate’s top health committee is seeking assurances from the Trump administration ahead of a tough vote on a nominee who has a history of statements undermining the safety of vaccines. By Nancy Vu (unlocked): www.nationaljournal.com/s/732534/cas...
Cassidy leverages swing vote in talks over Trump's latest anti-vaccine nominee
The chair of the Senate HELP Committee says he spoke with Kennedy's second-in-command at HHS about nominee Sean Kaufman.
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Analysts have been guessing at Trump’s true feelings about Israel and its longest-serving leader since the day he announced his candidacy at Trump Tower in 2015. George E. Condon Jr. with the latest White House File (unlocked): www.nationaljournal.com/s/732539/a-t...
A Trumpian view of U.S.-Israel relations
How President Trump’s position on Israel differs from presidents past.
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Do Republicans care enough about the farm bill to reach a compromise with Democrats on delaying the implementation of a law that will require the states to pay a portion of food-stamp benefits? Jerry Hagstrom with the latest Outside Influences (unlocked): www.nationaljournal.com/s/732523/as-...
As deadline nears, SNAP stands in the way of passing the farm bill
A law requiring states to pay for a portion of the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program is the core of congressional disagreement on farm legislation.
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If you’re Gavin Newsom, Josh Shapiro, Pete Buttigieg, or any other Democrat with dreams of reaching Super Tuesday in 2028, you might want to start sending additional fundraising emails. Erika Filter reports (unlocked): www.nationaljournal.com/s/732522/a-d...
A Democratic candidate’s guide to the 2028 calendar
Six states will hold primaries before Super Tuesday for the first time since 2008.
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Given the stakes of the 2026 election in swing states and districts, this would hardly seem to be the time to prioritize symbolism, message-sending, or self-indulgence over maximizing chances of winning. Charlie Cook with the latest Off to the Races: www.nationaljournal.com/s/732513/the...
The remaining primary risks for Democrats
Upcoming nominating contests could put must-win seats in play for Republicans if progressives prevail.
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While the June Consumer Price Index fell, largely due to lower gasoline prices, prices have rebounded in July and the CPI is expected to once again jump. David Lightman with the latest Following the Money (unlocked): www.nationaljournal.com/s/732511/wil...
Will the Fed raise interest rates? It’s starting to look like that could happen.
Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh presides over his second meeting this week. The financial world waits and watches for his views.
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Facing businessman Toby Doeden, a car salesman and political newcomer who has coalesced the state’s right-most factions, might be a blessing in disguise for South Dakota Gov. Larry Rhoden. @abby-turner.bsky.social reports (unlocked): www.nationaljournal.com/s/732512/hes...
For one of the most at-risk governors, an outspoken opponent may improve his chances
What to expect in Tuesday's historic runoff in South Dakota.
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The Senate’s top health care committee is delaying confirmation votes for President Trump’s picks to lead the CDC and the pandemic-preparedness agency until next week, due to ongoing talks surrounding one nominee and attendance issues. By Nancy Vu (unlocked): www.nationaljournal.com/s/732487/key...
Key health nominees stalled amid ‘ongoing conversations’
Attendance issues and continuing concerns over one nominee have delayed confirmation votes in the Senate HELP Committee.
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Independent Dan Osborn is poised to face GOP Sen. Pete Ricketts in Nebraska. His fellow independent candidates elsewhere haven’t been so lucky in clearing the field. @nenonicolosio.bsky.social and Sam Cormier report (unlocked): www.nationaljournal.com/s/732485/spo...
Spoiler alert: Democrats and independents clash in red-state Senate races
Three-way contests appear likely in Idaho, Montana, and South Dakota.
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Party committees’ newfound ability to coordinate spending with candidates might come at the detriment of television stations’ profit margins. Erika Filter reports (unlocked): www.nationaljournal.com/s/732462/nrs...
NRSC v. FEC decision opens floodgates for political advertising
Committees can now spend an unlimited amount in coordination with candidates, which might entitle them to the cheaper broadcast rate offered to candidates.
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When President Trump takes to the podium of the Waldorf Astoria Hotel Friday night, no one quite knows what to expect. George E. Condon Jr. with the latest White House File (unlocked): www.nationaljournal.com/s/732472/wha...
What history suggests about Trump’s redo of the White House Correspondents’ Dinner
The mercurial president’s highly anticipated remarks are the star of the show.
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Frustration with Washington and anti-establishment sentiment have continued to shift gubernatorial races in Democrats' direction. @abby-turner.bsky.social and @kirk-bado.bsky.social with the latest gubernatorial Power Rankings (unlocked): www.nationaljournal.com/s/732450/iho...
Hotline's Gubernatorial Power Rankings
Democrats look to capitalize on anti-Washington sentiment despite some messy primary battles.
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Campaigns reported more than $13 million on food in filings with the Federal Election Commission for this election cycle, covering Jan. 1, 2025, through July 16, the agency's latest disclosure period. Ben Shifrel reports (unlocked): www.nationaljournal.com/s/732445/che...
Check, please: A look inside candidates’ restaurant spending
FEC filings to date show where candidates are forking over their cash, who spent the most, and which D.C. restaurants got the biggest check.
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For the second midterm in a row, we’re talking about how the out-party isn’t dominating polls quite to the degree that one would expect given how badly the president is doing. Natalie Jackson with the latest Leading Indicators (unlocked): www.nationaljournal.com/s/732459/gen...
Generic ballot polls have tightened. Here’s what that may mean.
Democrats have the advantage but do not seem to be in as strong a position as Trump approval might indicate.
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Now that Maine Democrats have effectively decided on former state Senate President Troy Jackson to be their new nominee to take on GOP Sen. Susan Collins, where does the race stand? Charlie Cook with the latest Off to the Races (unlocked): www.nationaljournal.com/s/732448/dem...
Democrats saw Graham Platner as the key. The data said otherwise.
The now-defunct Senate candidacy had big assets and bigger liabilities.
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Prices are subject to the uncertainty regarding the war in Iran. David Lightman with the latest Following the Money (unlocked): www.nationaljournal.com/s/732435/why...
Why do gasoline prices stay stuck despite lower oil prices?
The price of gasoline depends on more than the status of the Iran war or the price of a barrel of oil.
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Key GOP and Democratic senators had high hopes for a new slate of nominees put forward by the White House to lead 2 health care agencies. Now it’s not clear whether the Senate will move ahead and confirm the picks next week. By Nancy Vu (unlocked): www.nationaljournal.com/s/732424/sen...
Senators uneasy over Trump administration's health care nominees
Democrats and a few key Republicans were hoping that the nominees for top HHS posts would break from Robert F. Kennedy Jr. ’s anti-vax messaging—but most were disappointed.
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Top Democratic challengers outraised vulnerable Republicans in April through June, and vulnerable Democratic incumbents outraised top GOP challengers, according to fundraising reports filed Wednesday. @zachblackburn.bsky.social reports (unlocked): www.nationaljournal.com/s/732409/iho...
Hotline's Q2 House fundraising chart
Democratic donors are voting with their wallets.
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Democratic Senate candidates led the money race over the last three months across the battlefield as Republican committees stockpiled cash, according to quarterly campaign finance reports filed on Wednesday. @nenonicolosio.bsky.social reports (unlocked): www.nationaljournal.com/s/732408/iho...
Hotline's Q2 Senate fundraising chart
The battleground is flush with Democratic cash.
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A handful of competitive House races in Arizona will solidify nominees in competitive races that could determine control of the lower chamber. Read more with the Hotline Primary Primer (unlocked): www.nationaljournal.com/s/732384/iho...
Hotline's primary primer: Arizona
Everything you need to know about the Grand Canyon State's primaries.
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Trump's goal, largely achieved by July 4, was less scrutiny of the executive branch, less deference to the other branches, and less accountability for the White House. George E. Condon Jr. with the latest White House File (unlocked): www.nationaljournal.com/s/732382/tru...
Trump has hollowed out the post-Watergate reforms
Presidential historians warn that the chief executive has an increasingly 'monarchical' view of his role while Congress and the Supreme Court keep writing him 'blank checks.'
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The anti-establishment Democratic Socialist wave could crest in Wisconsin, where an open Democratic primary for governor has revealed sharp divides within the party. @abby-turner.bsky.social reports (unlocked): www.nationaljournal.com/s/732369/pro...
Progressives' next front on the war against the establishment is in Wisconsin
The upcoming gubernatorial primary pits a more left-leaning candidate against a splintered field of moderates.
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