Studying identification and optimal policy design in a broad class of principal-agent models, from Brent R. Hickman, John A. List, Ian Muir, and Gregory K. Sun www.nber.org/papers/w35547

LinkedIn histories aren’t fixed; 19 percent of users edit past jobs. These “time-travel” edits track job moves and reveal rising AI language after 2022, and fading DEI mentions after 2025, from @nickbloom.bsky.social, @gideonmoore.bsky.social, Simon, and Wilkie-Rogers www.nber.org/papers/w35546

Studying whether AI can spot history's turning points using 120 years of newspaper data, to measure institutional uncertainty and detect critical junctures as they unfold, from Michael Callen, Gregory Levy, Saipremnath Muthukumaran, Jonathan L. Weigel, and Noam Yuchtman www.nber.org/papers/w35545

Proposing a solution for bias that results from non-random sample entry, from John A. List www.nber.org/papers/w35544

Diagnosis-contingent incentives that tie treatment incentives to diagnostic results reduce unnecessary treatment and improve welfare, from Maria Dieci, Paul Gertler, Jonathan T. Kolstad, and Carlos Paramo www.nber.org/papers/w35543

Technology-driven creative destruction in the product market passes through to worker earnings, from Brice C. Green, Leonid Kogan, Dimitris Papanikolaou, and Lawrence D.W. Schmidt www.nber.org/papers/w35542

Featured in the latest Digest: How Japanese Fuel-Economy Subsidies Affected Cars Sold in America www.nber.org/digest/20260...

Open call for proposals, Roybal Center for Behavior Change in Health - Clinical Trial Applications. Submit papers by 11:59pm EDT on October 1, 2026. More information: www.nber.org/calls-papers...

Intermediated debt markets give rise to two-tiered liquidity effects at currency and asset market levels. Government policies to join a currency area affect competition in asset markets, from Zhengyang Jiang www.nber.org/papers/w35541

Examining whether algorithmic risk assessments improve child-protection decisions, where supervisors decide which cases need closer scrutiny, from E. Jason Baron, Arkadev Ghosh, and Richard Lombardo www.nber.org/papers/w35540

A quantitative picture of the discourse on China in the US over time and across official documents and media, from Mert Geyiktepe and Dani Rodrik www.nber.org/papers/w35539

The cognitively impaired account for approximately 29 percent of total long-term care expenditures in the Netherlands, from Gaia Bagnasco, Pieter Bakx, Stijn Coremans, and Bram Wouterse www.nber.org/papers/w35538

Mark Duggan, Stanford University (Soon to be University of Toronto), presented the 18th Annual Martin Feldstein Lecture on "Social Security Reform in an Era of Fiscal Deficits". www.youtube.com/watch?v=4lCG...

Large-scale randomized trial finds low-cost reminders increased influenza vaccination, while machine learning identified patients most responsive to incentives, from Kelsey Moran, Gail M. Rosenbaum, Amir Goren, Michelle Meyer, Christopher Chabris, and Joseph J. Doyle Jr. www.nber.org/papers/w35537

A citywide experiment in the DR Congo finds that progressive property taxation raised revenue by 56 percent, boosting compliance at the bottom while raising liabilities at the top, from Tourek, Laroche, @abergeron.bsky.social, Naritomi, Weigel, and Mavungu Ngoma www.nber.org/papers/w35536

China's Yangtze fishing ban unintentionally boosted science as research funding rose about 22 percent and publications/citations nearly doubled for protected fish, by restoring specimen supply, from Minhao Chen, Lin William Cong, Haoyu Gao, Andrew Karolyi, and Hui Wang www.nber.org/papers/w35535

Tax avoidance through personal holding companies in Sweden and Norway shelters 50 percent of dividend income from taxation, leading to a sharp drop-off in effective tax rates at the top, from Marius A. K. Ring, David G. Seim, and Gabriel Zucman www.nber.org/papers/w35534

County health departments established in the early 1900s increased longevity for those exposed in utero or early childhood, with the largest gains among disadvantaged children, from Hamid Noghanibehambari and Jason Fletcher www.nber.org/papers/w35533

Arguing that the “Confucian Fertility Paradox” dissolves once two strands of the tradition are separated and recognize that modernization affected them very differently, from Hanming Fang and Chang Liu www.nber.org/papers/w35532

Reforms that anonymized China’s imperial exams and ended local recommendations increased commoner entry into office and reduced, especially scholar-led, social unrest, from Jingjing Chen, Jianlei Han, Shing-Yi Wang, and Yongxiang Wang www.nber.org/papers/w35531

Curtailing renewables wastes cheap, clean energy. In nationwide trials in Great Britian and Spain, letting prices go to zero for consumers captured welfare gains curtailment leaves behind, from Daniel Lopez Garcia, @rmetcalfe.bsky.social, Andrew R. Schein, and Yixin Sun www.nber.org/papers/w35530

Positive temperature shocks have persistent and detrimental impacts on weekly US state economic conditions, possibly due to the effect of heat on labor productivity, from Kimberly A. Berg, Chadwick C. Curtis, and Nelson C. Mark www.nber.org/papers/w35529

Finding a core tension in active asset management: skilled managers generate performance through policy insights while attracting flows through sentiment alignment, from Zhenyu Gao, Wei Xiong, and Jian Yuan www.nber.org/papers/w35528

Examining how networks formed through college athletics influence the early-career trajectories of Ivy League graduates, from Paul Gompers, George Hu, Will Levinson, and Sachin Srivastava www.nber.org/papers/w35527

When deliberation noise varies systematically between individuals, accounting for decision processes is essential to accurately determining preferences, from Cesar Chavez Padilla, Shuaizhang Feng, James J. Heckman, and Zhe Yang www.nber.org/papers/w35526

Investigating whether, by providing better and more timely information, the first mandatory online reporting and auditing program for wastewater discharge releases in the US improved facility compliance and environmental performance, from Gray, Shadbegian, and Wolverton www.nber.org/papers/w35525

Studying Canada’s unemployment insurance system, where benefit duration increases discretely when prior hours worked crosses various thresholds, from @yourfriendlen.bsky.social and Simon Quach www.nber.org/papers/w35524

Higher immigration rates predicted higher labor productivity growth across OECD countries over the period 1990–2024, from Gaetano Basso, Mitali R. Mathur, and Giovanni Peri www.nber.org/papers/w35523

In India’s 4G rollout, spillovers across phones and networks shape entry and product variety. Policies that curb foreign firms can weaken the complementary market and backfire, from Chirantan Chatterjee, Ying Fan, and Debi Prasad Mohapatra www.nber.org/papers/w35522

Machine learning lets lenders predict who's profitable, boosting margins 7–9 percentage points, but cuts out women and poorer borrowers. Heterogeneous treatment effects on borrowers inconclusive, from Athey, Fava, @deankarlan.bsky.social, Osman, and Zinman www.nber.org/papers/w35521