Is Russia preparing for another mobilisation? Five warning signs to watch ⬇️🧵
New Eurasian Strategies Centre (NEST Centre)
@nestcentre.bsky.social
We bring together the best expertise on Russia and the surrounding region. Based in London and Washington, DC. https://nestcentre.org/
What to watch this week, from NEST experts: ➡️ The prosecution of Pavel Durov ➡️ The alleged assassination attempt on the Commander-in-Chief of the Aerospace Forces in Moscow ➡️ Moscow’s response to the first visit by Trump’s negotiators to Kyiv
'Increasingly aggressive rhetoric, new repressive legislation, moves to put the economy on a war footing, and the prospect of a new wave of military mobilisation all indicate that the Kremlin is not planning to de-escalate.' New briefing note: nestcentre.org/mobilisation...
Mobilisation 2.0: The Kremlin is preparing for the next phase of the war – New Eurasian Strategies Centre
Drone and missile strikes by the Ukrainian Armed Forces against civilian and industrial infrastructure have accelerated the transformation of the Putin regime. Previously, it was characterised by an i...
nestcentre.org
Why did Kazakhstan’s president tell Putin that the war in Ukraine 'has to be stopped'? Ben Goodwin joins John Lough this Thursday to discuss what Tokayev’s intervention reveals about the changing Russia-Kazakhstan relationship. Register to attend: zoom.us/webinar/regi...
Turkey is moving closer to the West, but Moscow sees no geopolitical realignment. Ruslan Suleymanov examines how energy dependence, shared interests and Erdoğan’s transactional diplomacy keep Ankara close to Russia. nestcentre.org/a-trusted-pa...
A trusted partner: Moscow is unconcerned by Ankara’s westward pivot – New Eurasian Strategies Centre
Kremlin tends to interpret Ankara’s closer engagement with Western countries as a series of tactical, transactional moves rather than a fundamental geopolitical pivot.
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'The Lukashenka regime is helping Russia prolong the conflict.' Katia Glod spoke with Le Monde about the role Belarus plays in providing Moscow with logistics, training grounds and the means to exert hybrid pressure on Europe. www.lemonde.fr/internationa...
Guerre en Ukraine : l’Europe redoute une participation plus active de la Biélorussie
Sommé par Kiev de rompre ses liens militaires avec Moscou, courtisé sans succès par les Occidentaux, Alexandre Loukachenko, le président biélorusse, maintient son pays dans une posture d’appui discret...
lemonde.fr
What to watch this week: FOM weekly public sentiment indicators, the impact of the EU's 21st sanctions package, and US-Russia dialogue ⤵️
'For the first time since the start of the full-scale war in Ukraine, Russians’ negative expectations outweigh positive ones regarding both their own and the country’s future.' New briefing note: nestcentre.org/growing-pess...
Growing pessimism in Russia could unnerve the Kremlin – New Eurasian Strategies Centre
As war disrupts everyday life, growing pessimism could fuel emigration, capital flight and an increasingly repressive Kremlin response
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Ukraine’s strikes are bringing the war deeper into Russia, while Russian forces advance in Donbas and bombard Ukrainian cities. John Lough spoke to The Australian Financial Review about the current military balance—and why neither side is ready to stop. ➡️ afr.com/world/europe...
Russia’s car sales have rebounded from their 2022 collapse—but domestic production has not. Import barriers, subsidies and taxi regulations are creating an industry that imitates a functioning market while becoming ever more dependent on the state. ➡️ nestcentre.org/the-artifici...
Russia is now producing less petrol than it consumes. Ukrainian strikes have not destroyed Russia’s refining industry—but their cumulative impact is turning disruption at individual refineries into a national supply problem. 🧵
What impact would the proposed Graham sanctions bill have on Russia and its relationships across Asia? This Thursday, Bobo Lo joins @JohnLough to discuss how the bill may be perceived in Moscow and what it could mean for China and India. Register to attend: zoom.us/webinar/regi...
Russia’s economy resembles a parachutist in descent: still being buffeted by changing winds, not yet at the moment of impact. Sergey Aleksashenko examines the forces shaping its trajectory—and the growing risks of a hard landing. New economic monitoring: nestcentre.org/slow-decline/
Slow decline: Russia’s economy is worsening, but neither collapse nor recovery is likely – New Eurasian Strategies Centre
The Russian economy continues to decline under the influence of well-established factors: military spending, high interest rates, and sanctions.
nestcentre.org
What to watch this week: tensions over Ukraine’s military transformation, obstacles facing tougher US sanctions on Russia, and whether declining refinery output becomes a sustained crisis.
'The Kremlin is simultaneously testing mechanisms for external de-escalation while reminding domestic elites that they will have to submit to increasingly restrictive wartime conditions.' Read the NEST Centre's latest briefing note: nestcentre.org/pragmatism-f...
Pragmatism for export: The Kremlin offers a vision of the post-war future – New Eurasian Strategies Centre
Andrey Melnichenko’s article signals Moscow’s terms for post-war dialogue while seeking to reassure Russia’s increasingly anxious business elite
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'Russia never had to annex Belarus to achieve most of its strategic objectives.' Watch Katia Glod and Ian Bond discuss the findings of Glod's latest paper on Russia's influence in Belarus and what it means for European security. youtu.be/LURV0dpxuKo
Russia's policy towards Belarus since 2022: Implications for European Security
YouTube video by NEST Centre
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Russia's coal industry was once one of the country's biggest export success stories. In a new short analysis, Nikolay Kulbaka explains why it's now in crisis—and what that reveals about the Kremlin's economic model. 🔗 nestcentre.org/the-coal-trap/
The coal trap: How Russia’s own policies are undermining a once-profitable export sector – New Eurasian Strategies Centre
The Russian coal industry has reached a point at which preserving the existing economic model of the country's coal-producing regions will require permanent, ever greater state support unless structur...
nestcentre.org
Russia's pro-war Z community has built powerful volunteer networks, media platforms and direct links to the front. But could growing frustration with the authorities become a political challenge? New report by Ella Paneyakh: nestcentre.org/angry-but-st...
Angry, but still loyal: Will Russia’s pro-war community turn against the Kremlin? – New Eurasian Strategies Centre
A network of active supporters of the war has emerged among Russians – the so-called Z community. This group may account for up to one third of the population and has considerable potential for politi...
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Is Andrey Melnichenko's recent intervention a rare act of dissent, or a carefully calibrated message from the Kremlin? Join The Economist's Arkady Ostrovsky and NEST Centre's Sergey Aleksashenko this Thursday to discuss. Register: zoom.us/webinar/regi...
NEST Centre's John Lough and Nikolai Petrov joined Meduza's Russian-language podcast to discuss the findings of our recent report, 'Cracks in the Kremlin Walls,' and what could actually threaten the stability of the Putin regime. 🔗 youtu.be/hWqTR6F1el0
Угрозы путинизму. Политологи о слабых местах Путина
YouTube video by Meduza
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77% of Russians believe the war is harming the economy. NEST Centre's latest nationwide polling suggests economic pessimism is growing and attitudes are shifting. Read Sergey Aleksashenko's latest analysis: nestcentre.org/the-war-come...
What to watch this week from NEST Centre experts: ➡️ The Kremlin's reading of the NATO summit ➡️ Growing tensions between Moscow and Russia's business elite ➡️ Whether fuel shortages begin to trigger public protest
Ukraine's strikes on Russian oil refineries have triggered a fuel crisis that is exposing one of the Kremlin's greatest vulnerabilities: its inability to respond quickly to complex crises. Read the latest NEST Centre briefing note 🔗 nestcentre.org/russias-fuel...
Russia's fuel crisis has exposed the Putin regime's greatest vulnerability – New Eurasian Strategies Centre
Ukraine's refinery strikes have exposed not only fuel shortages, but the structural weaknesses of Putin's highly centralised system of governance
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How prepared is the West for a post-Putin Russia? John Lough spoke to The Sun about why the West should be planning for the possibility that change in Russia could come more rapidly than expected, alongside the NATO summit, fuel shortages and the war. www.youtube.com/watch?v=VDQa...
Why Putin might escalate war by striking Poland | John Loach
YouTube video by The Sun
youtube.com
There is still time to register for this online discussion on 15 July. 🔗 zoom.us/webinar/regi...
New Eurasian Strategies Centre (NEST Centre)@nestcentre.bsky.social · last mo.How has Russia reshaped its relationship with Belarus since 2020, and what does it mean for European security? Join Katia Glod in conversation with Ian Bond on 15 July for an online discussion hosted by the NEST Centre. Register: zoom.us/webinar/regi...
The recording of this week's Midweek Briefing is now available. Eugene Rumer joined John Lough to discuss how the NATO summit, Europe's rearmament, and Ukraine's battlefield gains are reshaping Russia's security calculations. youtu.be/T1cYsETtusc
The Ankara summit: Implications for Russia
YouTube video by NEST Centre
youtu.be
In a new short analysis, Nikolay Kulbaka examines Russia's shipbuilding industry to show how the Kremlin's industrial policy works in practice—and why understanding the micro-level of the economy is essential to understanding the bigger picture. nestcentre.org/putins-indus...
Putin's industrial policy: Nationalise and make the private sector pay – New Eurasian Strategies Centre
The state nationalises most of the companies operating within a 'a strategic sector'. Private businesses are compelled to finance the state's plans through mandatory payments.
nestcentre.org
'Even under an authoritarian system, elections can still serve a variety of purposes.' In a new interview with Ben Noble, Nikolai Petrov explains why Russia's September State Duma elections still matter—and what they reveal about the Kremlin's wartime politics. 🔗 nestcentre.org/the-meaning-...
The meaning of September’s State Duma elections – New Eurasian Strategies Centre
Russia’s first national parliamentary elections since the 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine will take place in September this year.
nestcentre.org
'Russians are very much concerned and aware of these disruptions.' NEST Centre's Head of Sociology Ella Paneyakh spoke to The Straits Times about Putin's declining popularity in the face of widespread fuel shortages. www.straitstimes.com/world/europe...
It’s a different, more confident Ukraine President Zelensky coming to NATO this year
Ukraine is “doing so much better over the last couple of months”, said Nato. Read more at straitstimes.com. Read more at straitstimes.com.
straitstimes.com
Join this week's 30-min briefing: 'The Ankara summit: implications for Russia.' Eugene Rumer joins John Lough to discuss the results of the NATO summit and how they are likely to be interpreted in Moscow. 9 July | 16:00 CET | 10:00 EST | Online Register: zoom.us/webinar/regi...
