Nick Silkstone

@nick-silkstone.bsky.social

I spend as much time as possible outdoors, running, SUPing, cycling, walking and gardening. Occasional bit of photography. Operational Meteorologist at the Met Office (UK). All opinions my own.

If you live in the Central England region, you've just experienced the hottest 28 day / 4 week temperature on record (records beck to the year 1772). Beating the previous set in 1976! This is as measured by the mean daily CET series published by the @metoffice.gov.uk, and a 28 day trailing mean.

Central England Temperature series, top 10 days for trailing 28 day average. 14 July 2026 is now top with 20.66 C

The whole daily mean UK CET record. 1st and 99th %iles computed, then plotting how many days per year (within each decade) do days <1st %ile and >99th %ile occur. This allows analysis of the occurrence of the extremes), styled like the population pyramids I remember from GSCE Geography. #RStats

Met Office Hadley Centre Daily Mean Central England Temperature dataset, 1st and 99th percentiles computed, and then their occurrence per year within each decade plotted in the style of a population pyramid.

Through time, this shows a marked decrease in the occurrences in extreme cold, and in the most recent few decades a marked increase of the extreme hot days.

The recent #UK extreme #heatwave in context. The daily mean Central England Temperature (CET) record extends back to the year 1771. In dataset of 92,949 dates, the last 4 days in the series have all fallen into the top 20 of all time. The CET area has never seen anything like this in >250 years. 🔥

A table showing the top 20 hottest days in the Central England Temperature mean daily temperatures dataset back to the year 1771.

Keeping up with the potential tropical depression / storm development between the Malay Peninsula / Borneo. A satellite derived surface wind field (from 19/16:30 UTC) suggests it's close to being a tropical depression at 0 deg. Slightly inconclusive on the east side of the circulation for now.

Oceansat-3 pass of showing the satellite derived surface wind field between the Malay Peninsula and Borneo at 16:30 UTC on the 19 March 2025, with the Infrared image (at the same time) in the background.

It shows the circulation (located at 0 degrees north) is very close to becoming closed off and becoming a tropical depression....it might already be at that point. This area will drift north and northeast in the coming days, it will be interesting to see what happens.

The GFS model remains keen on generating a tropical depression between the Malay Peninsula and Borneo at <2 deg of latitude. This last occurred in 2004 when Vamei reached tropical storm / typhoon strength (disputed), such events are estimated to have a 100-400 year return period. Interesting to 👀

Screenshort of the GFS model on Thursday 20 March at 23:00 UTC. Showing a closed 1010hPa isobar around a surface low 1009hPa between  the Malay Peninsula and Borneo. 

This unusual signal at such so latitudes is a consequence of the ambient wind field and the shape of the coastline and topography in the region. Under the right conditions of a cold surge from the northeast, and westerly wind burst associated with the MJO to the south the region the ambient cyclonic vorticity can be enough to allow a compact tropical cyclone to form in this tiny expanse of tropical water (lee than 2 deg from the equator).

Unusually low column ozone and clear skies over the UK again today (Sunday), see ozone anomaly forecast below. UV levels will be higher than normal for the time off year. I got a little sunburn yesterday, so will take the suncream out today. Enjoy! ☀️

Forecast column ozone anomaly, showing before average ozone across the UK on Sunday 02/03/25.

It looks like I saw the optical phenomenon of light pillars at 20:00 UTC 29 Jan 2025 in Devon, UK this evening. Vertical pillars of white light that really stood out in the sky for brightness and dead straightness of the lines.

Image of light pillars from Cranbrook, DevonImage of light pillars from Cranbrook, DevonBild

A #coldwave is forecast for the central US from the weekend into the middle of next week. Extending all the way to the Gulf of Mexico and northeastern Mexico. ECMWF forecasts suggest maximum temperatures for Austin, Texas, may be more than 20 C (36 F) below normal early next week.

ECMWF Ensemble Meteogram for daily maximum and minimum temperatures for Austin, Texas.\

Showing a coldwave from Sunday 19 January to Thursday 23 January with temperatures often 15-20 C below average during this time.

Snow didn't settle in Exeter this week, so I popped up to #Dartmoor to get me #snow fix before it all melted. I drove to South Zeal, about 25 mins from Exeter, and walked up Cosdon Beacon (550 m) with Ollie 🐾 About 10-15cm, deep drifts, and rime on vegetation above 450m. A top afternoon out!

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#Snowdays? My family thinks snowfall that would cause few issues in the 1970s, cause carnage today. Why? My theory: Schools, H&S of the school site, & safety of pupil/staff travel. Many teachers commute greater distances now than in 1970, rendering safe travel more challenging. Data, thoughts?

Confidence is now high for cold weather across parts of Western / Northwestern Europe in early January 2025. Here is a look at the forecast broad regime through the start of the period, and meteogram for London showing the forecast max / min. Compared to recent weeks, it will be notably #cold!

An info graphic showing the forecast:

In the top left a ECMWF meteogram for London shows a period of well below average temperatures being the most probable outcome between the 3rd and 10th of January.

The rest of the image shows the broad pattern, characterised by the ridge over Greenland and trough over Scandinavia, which favours northerly flow into the UK and much of Western Europe.

Across a few days dog walks on my regular routes I've surveyed the damage in my local area from #StormDarragh Mainly tree damage with a few large trees toppled, and plenty of branches / limbs brought down (>3 m in length my criteria for inclusion). A nice reference to future strong wind events.

The images shows a map on the left showing the locations around Cranbrook and Rockbeare in Devon where damage from Storm Darragh has been seen from my walking routes. 

On the right two photos showing some of the damage, the first a fallen mature tree, and the second a panel of sheet metal pulled from a barn.

Another truly hazardous #airquality event is underway across northern India, Pakistan and Nepal. PM2.5 (tiny aerosols harmful to lungs) are exceeding 600 micrograms per metre cubed (see Lahore)! For reference to WHO recommend PM2.5 not above a 24 hours average value of 15, for 3-4 days per year.

A visible satellite image from 27 November showing the smoke / smog across the region.Air quality monitoring stations around Lahore, showing a mixture of very unhealthy / hazardous air quality.

D23: Memory This is my first geographic memory, learning the route from school to home and back, via the people and places I knew along the way (including "mean man"). Likely very inaccurate as memories are well faded since 1997! But it's been great to think back to that time. #30DayMapChallenge

A map of my memory of my route from home to school in West Yorkshire. It shows the route (black dashed line), roads, paths, waterways, and the houses and businesses I remember along the way.