PSA: Please do not use margins from pre-election polls as any form of benchmark! Apolling margin is not predictive of elections, nor does it tell us whether someone did well. I’m currently seeing this with the Dem Michigan Primary.

The new proposal to charge foreign students $100,000 to be allowed to work in the US would be very economically costly for the US. Economic research shows us why this is the case.

Final thoughts on Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh press conference: It’s not about whether we increase rates by 25bps or we don’t. The impact either way will be relatively minor. 1/2

Here is my take of the Warsh press conference - there were lots of contradictory statements, which raise concerns about how Warsh would handle a significant economic crisis.

The Federal Reserve kept interest rates steady. That wasn't surprising. The press conference after, however, was perplexing.

Special Edition: A Bizarre Press Conference After the FOMC Holds Interest Rates Steady

On July 29, 2026, a split FOMC meeting decided to hold interest rates steady. However, Warsh's press conference after was both confusing and concerning.

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The changes in the FOMC statement between June and today:

1/2

This should not be a surprise. Rewards credit cards are akin to gambling houses - the rewards are transfers between all payers (including cash payers), while the house (credit cards + banks) get to take a bigger cut.

Here's a question to economists - what in the US market structure prevents the US from having a payment system like Brazil’s Pix, where fees are near zero (unlike US credit cards and other systems)

Former Chair of the Council to Economic Advisers to President Trump penned an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal defending tariffs as a good policy. Here we go over why the assumptions he's making have been shown to be incorrect. This includes: 1/2

Good to see more coverage (by Justin Wolfers) of the Trump Accounts and that they are an inherently a flawed policy. It will only exacerbate inequality and not help families in need. We have covered the economic research that shows this in one of our previous articles: 1/2

You may often see comments saying ‘inflation is just too much printed money’. If that were the case, we would have plenty of research showing this. However, most research shows that the the supply of money does not lead inflation, but, rather, it's the other way around. 1/2

'Greedflation' is contentious term. One way I think about is whether there is sufficient competition in the market. But to understand that, we need to understand how firms price on a macroeconomic scale. 1/4

We all know the World Cup brings people together, but can it actually heal deep societal divides? 📈⚽️ We break down the economic research showing how a national team's success can reduce ethnic conflict and build a stronger, more unified national identity 👇🧵www.nominalnews.com/...

McCloskey on why economics doesn’t have a textbook that can be recommended for people to learn economics I agree- the reason is that economics is a method of formal thinking. That’s why textbooks that focus on models or ideas, and not on how to build the model, become obsolete.

How The World Cup Builds Nations 1/3

This is actually not true. Immigrants in a country (and investors) that pay taxes would also be considered foreigners in this model. So labor and capital taxes are also paid by ‘foreigners’.

My thoughts on Jerome Powell and why I think he was good Fed chair. What really stood out to me was his openness to research and ideas: www.nominalnews.com/p/jerome-pow...

Jerome Powell – A Look-Back at a Great Federal Reserve Chair

It's important to give credit where it's due – Jerome Powell steered US monetary policy very well.

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I promise you that if you read this primer on inflation, you will know more about inflation than 99% of pundits and podcast hosts -

Inflation – a Short Primer

How staggered pricing causes inflation, even without money.

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Given the wide breadth of perspectives on what Kevin Warsh meant about interest policy, Fed communication is already worse.

I think people are significantly misjudging how bad the ‘taskforces’ announced by Kevin Warsh will be. It's undermining the work of all economics. It's like having a ‘taskforce’ for child vaccine schedules.

My quick take on the FOMC meeting and the press conference by Kevin Warsh www.nominalnews.com/p/special-ed...

Special Edition: Federal Reserve FOMC Meeting Update

On June 17, 2026, the FOMC met for the first time with Kevin Warsh as Chairman.

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Oof - we have slower growth and high inflation currently. Also, Q1 GDP, even at 1.6% is ‘artificially’ inflated due to the fact that in Q4 2025, there was a government shut down. Adjusting for this, GDP growth was around 1.2%.

PPI (Producer Price Index - the prices producers receive) increased by 1.3% month over month (not annualized). On a last 12 month basis - this is 6%. Honestly, I'm starting to lean that a rate hike this year should be in order. The risk of inflation unanchoring is increasing.

Inflation in the US came in very hot, with core (i.e not including food and energy) at 2.8 percent. Two comments: 1/5

We can now more comfortably evaluate the impact of tariffs on the US economy, and, unfortunately, as economists had predicted they’re not good: - Prices are up possibly by more than just the tariff; - Inflation is up; - Wages are lower; - Consumers are significantly worse off 1/2

Unemployment Rate in April stayed at 4.3% Number of added jobs in April: +115,000. The US Economy keeps ticking along. I wonder if the recent positive change is driven by the tariffs being voided. Also, with inflation being higher, interest rate cuts should be off the table.

Powell stated that tariff inflation will disappear in inflation readings in the next two quarters. Personally, I think the tariff inflation shock will dissipate at the end of 2026 (assuming no new tariffs and an expiry of all tariffs). A slightly later timeline according to me.

The Federal Reserve has kept interest rates fixed. What’s interesting to see is the debate positioning in the statement. Three of the voters are de facto telling that there is no reason for rate cuts at all. (and they’re probably right for the next 12 months). Image-Nick Timiraos