Nye Cominetti

@nyecominetti.bsky.social

At Resolution Foundation covering labour market, low pay, living wage.

I'm about three episodes short of finishing the whole of the Wire. For the third time, 20 years after I first watched it. Just had Snoop's "how my hair look?" moment. Hopefully it's not tedious to recommend it, I did put someone off it once by overdoing it. But it remains so good

I wonder if anyone will be tempted to shoehorn a Scott-Amundsen reference into the build up today, the classic Eng-Nor rivalry. If so it doesn't bode well: valiant English blokes show great spirit in face of tough conditions but in the end handily beaten by a more efficient team. And several die.

Just occurred to me i hadn't *really* got my head round AI as a thing that will be here forever that permanently changes how we do things. (As opposed to a faddy thing that is big for a while). Mostly that's a sad thought, I prefer no-AI world. I guess that marks me out as old/ fuddy / not Blair

Trying to cool down by reading The Worst Journey in The World, about the Scott antartic trip. Am on the 'winter journey' section where three of them walk for 5 weeks in complete darkness (other than occasional moonlight) in -60c temps. They climbed into *literally* frozen sleeping bags every night.

Named son Elis. I have red hair. On way to hospital realised i was opening him up to "Elis Ginge" should he follow me hair wise and should kids in the 2030s for some reason feel like making nicknames based on probably retired rugby players. In the end my hair genes proved themselves recessive ✌️

If you need persuading of the importance of education funding / structures to UK's NEET problem, this chart was my best attempt at making that point. UK has *higher* % of YP in straight-employment than almost all OECD countries. But still manages higher NEET rates because ed participation so low

Nye Cominetti @nyecominetti.bsky.social · 3mo ago

2. Education. Mechanically, reducing the NEET rate means getting more young people into education or work. Almost all the countries with lower NEET rates than the UK do this via higher education participation. So that seems the main place to look for improvement.

I don't believe there was any such deliberate strategy. Govt ruled out main taxes, and lowering the threshold for employer NICs looks less tax rise-y than raising the rate. Big 2025 NLW increase was a data accident. Emp rights changes don't change agg costs that much (certainly haven't yet).

Ben Zaranko@benzaranko.bsky.social · 2mo ago

Full version in my column for this weekend’s Observer, which has some (other) cracking stories in there: observer.co.uk/news/busines...

Footnote in Gillette add claiming 75% of 135 people said it gave them a smooth shave. Surely don't publish your stats if your results are that bad and/or you apparently put no resources into your survey

Write up of this morning's labour market stats. 👇 Headline is probably that by March real wage growth had already fallen to roughly zero. The UK is quite able to deliver weak wage growth without the help of conflict in the middle east thank you very much

Resolution Foundation@resolutionfoundation.org · 3mo ago

ONS stats published this morning show a weak labour market in the first quarter of the year. In our latest Substack, @nyecominetti.bsky.social takes us through the latest ONS labour market statistics and what these tell us about the UK economy.

The first couple of months of 2026 had presented a bit of a puzzle. Most indicators were pointing to a sluggish labour market with weak demand – vacancy rates were no longer falling but were below pre-Covid levels, and payroll jobs were falling. But the unemployment rate from the Labour Force Survey was pointing in the other direction. The single month estimate was 5.2 per cent in December and fell in both January (to 4.9 January) and February (to 4.6 per cent). Today’s data suggest those falls were a blip rather than a turning point. The single-month estimate for March was 5.5 per cent (the highest since 2015), giving a three-month headline figure of 5.0 per cent for Q1 2026. A useful reminder to take LFS estimates with a pinch of salt.