ObjectivelyDrew

@objectivelydrew.bsky.social

Data over opinion (including mine) College sports metrics Design, UX, human/visual interaction Games of all kinds substack.com/@objectivelydrew drewchristien.com

Houston 71.5% likely to beat Texas Tech; based purely on box score data. But at Week 3 the data pool is shallow and more likely to throw errors. Still, thinking of a shattered Cody Campbell this early in the season is bait for the rest of the Big XII. #cfb

Houston at Texas Tech projections based purely on per play box score data, and strength of schedule. Coogs are projected at 71.5% and 447.5 yards. Red Raiders are projected at 28.5% and 336.5 yards. 

This is largely due to TTU struggling to win over teams like #129 Oregon State, while putting up just the 61st ranked scoring tempo margin.

Big XII chaos is in full swing. Last week's #1, UCF, is now in 10th. West Virginia was in 13th, and is now in 2nd. It's always fun to see how teams' values move when they're purely box-score derived / unaffected by preseason polls, previous seasons, or opinions. #cfb

Modules for the Big XII on objectivelyfootball.com - season progression is shown with BYU in first and Arizona St. in last. A play-balance-o-meter is also shown. The Big XII is 3rd in running plays at 57.8% and 9th in passing plays at 42.2%.

Ducks/OSU coverage: "You just pulled off one of the biggest upsets in the history of college football" is one hell of a statement considering Oregon wasn't even in the top 50 for performance against schedule.

Virginia vaulted back to #1 in the nation last night with a high-scoring win, while bolstered by previously-vanquished NC State having a huge win of their own tonight (Mizzou also leapt up to #2). Don't expect it to hold, the games re-rank instantly whenever any game goes final. #cfb

The ACC conference page on objectivelyfootball.com 

After several big performances already in Week 2, the ACC is now ranked #3 in performance against strength of schedule, #4 in PASS+, or the same performance with a uniform +1 shift, and #5 in scoring tempo margin. 

There is a visual chart of the ACC rankings, with Virginia making a sharp climb into first place with a PASS value over 11 - more than double that of #2 Miami FL. Early week chaos always happens in this system because every team starts level at 0, so it better reflects what's actually happening than opinion polling. Teams blow out FCS schools and when that per play data is combined with quality wins over an FBS school, it has the effect seen here with Virginia.

The ACC is right near the middle of the pack for play balance, with 54.8% of plays being run plays and 45.2% pass plays (Ranked 6th for both).

I also have to wonder how much time he spent in the coaching staff's ears this past week. Campbell's tough-guy talk about 'throwing on opponents while up 40' doesn't align with this performance against an FCS school. More in the alt text. #cfb #cfbsky

Texas Tech's football team page for the current season at objectivelyfootball.com 

The Red Raiders have a poor strength of schedule, ranked 87th. Their first game was a 33-10 win over Abilene Christian. Other supposed playoff contenders had much larger margins over their scheduled "gimme games". 

This means TTU currently ranks 71st in performance against strength of schedule (PASS), which measures box scores on a per play basis. It is an objective measure that includes no opinion polls, no preseason ranks, and no hand-picked stat ratios or historic data. Just box scores from the current season.

With every team beginning at the same equal floor, the chances to make the playoffs or win a conference will grow or shrink each week. As such, it's too early to tell, but the numbers say that Texas Tech is by no means guaranteed to run away with the Big XII as many analysts have predicted.
David at FOIAball@foiaball.com · 5d ago

The man whose sole focus is to protect and/or save college sports was conspicuously quiet as a scandal threatened to completely destroy the idea of amateurism. Why didn’t Cody Campbell speak up on LSU? I think I know whyyyyyyy www.foiaball.com/p/cody-campb...

L'Empereur. I don't even know how I ended up with this cartridge as a kid. My dad may have gotten it thinking he'd play it? But he played Willow once until 3am and then never touched a video game console game again.

The box art for L'Empereur on NES by KOEI. A tactical war/timeline simulator. It says "Relive the past!"
Retro Blast 💫@retroblastpod.com · 5d ago

What's a video game you played for hours as a kid but never understood exactly HOW to play it? You never knew what the goal was, where to go, or what to do, but kept playing anyway! What's that game for you?

The Objective 138 has been live since SMU/FSU's final whistle. It's purely based on per play box score data. No ai, no opinions, no preseason poll, no hand-picked stat ratios, no historic curves. Every FBS team started at the same 0. This is what they did from there.

The objectively football dot com college football rankings week 2. 1-25.
Chris Vannini@chrisvannini.com · last wk.

✍️ This week's Athletic 138, ranking every FBS team: 1. LSU 9. Ole Miss 37. Michigan 38. Western Michigan 69. NDSU 100. UMass (in my top 100 for the first time ever!) Full rankings: www.nytimes.com/athletic/757...