Would Paraguay have done better in the final?

Penalty taking and stopping skill for Spain and Argentina. Both teams have excellent penalty stoppers. Argentina got a slight edge in a shootout per my model. Expect Spain to bring in Borja Iglesias for penalties as he has one of the best shot maps around. #WC #WorldCup #ARGESP #WorldCupFinal

Argentina in the knockout stage of this World Cup: 1' to 67': -3 goal differential 68' onward: +8 goal differential

Penalty taking and stopping skill for Spain and Argentina. Both teams have excellent penalty stoppers. Argentina got a slight edge in a shootout per my model. Expect Spain to bring in Borja Iglesias for penalties as he has one of the best shot maps around. #WC #WorldCup #ARGESP #WorldCupFinal

Penalty skills for England - Argentina. England have some of the best takers in Harry Kane and Ivan Toney, but Argentina has an edge in the shootout if England play Pickford instead of Henderson. #WorldCup #WC2026 #ARGENG #WorldCup2026 #FIFAWorldCup

In a penalty shoot out, which team would you pick to win? 1: best 10 pk takers in the world (eg Kane), but the worst pk GK (Begovic) 2: worst 10 pk takers (eg Chricarito) but best pk GK (eg Diego Alves). Simulation informed answer to follow! #WorldCup #WorldCup2026

Penalty stats

And Rice is right, England has very good penalty takers! (Also a very bad one with Ollie Watkins) #WorldCup #WC2026 #NORENG #WorldCup2026 #FIFAWorldCup

Penalty stopping skills for both teams:

Max@oostermax.bsky.social · 4w ago

Tuchel would never do it because England has won 3 shootouts with Pickford and I imagine the media backlash would be huge if they lose (and pks are still a game of chance), but Henderson has been the better penalty stopper in his career by far. #WorldCup #WC2026 #NORENG #WorldCup2026 #FIFAWorldCup

Tuchel would never do it because England has won 3 shootouts with Pickford and I imagine the media backlash would be huge if they lose (and pks are still a game of chance), but Henderson has been the better penalty stopper in his career by far. #WorldCup #WC2026 #NORENG #WorldCup2026 #FIFAWorldCup

Courtois off injured for Lammens. If the match gets to pks, this may in fact increase Belgium's chances as my model gives a 63% chance that Lammens is the better pk stopper. They need every advantage they can get with Unai Simon being one of the best penalty stoppers #WorldCup #WC2026 #ESPBEL

France - Morocco penalty taking and stopping skills. Two of the very best penalty stoppers with Maignan and Bounou. Both teams consist of very average penalty takers on the other hand. If they get to a shootout, we may see multiple saves. #WorldCup #WC2026 #FIFAWorldCup #FRAMAR

And bonus: all of the penalties Mbappe took in his career. #WorldCup #WC2026 #FIFAWorldCup #FRAMAR

France - Morocco penalty taking and stopping skills. Two of the very best penalty stoppers with Maignan and Bounou. Both teams consist of very average penalty takers on the other hand. If they get to a shootout, we may see multiple saves. #WorldCup #WC2026 #FIFAWorldCup #FRAMAR

and here are the other estimated skills for both teams. Camilo Vargas is really excellent at stopping penalties! Columbia their penalty takers seem to be (sub)par. #WorldCup #WC2026 #FIFAWorldCup #SUICOL

no goalkeeper substitution by the Swiss. this could cost them.. (or not because football)

Max@oostermax.bsky.social · 4w ago

If we get to a shootout, Switzerland would do well to sub Keller on for Kobel. My model estimates a 77% chance that Marvin Keller is the better penalty stopper. And according to a new model of mine, this could improve their chances from 39% (with Kobel) to 47% (with Keller) in the shootout! #SUICOL

if Switzerland vs Columbia gets to a penalty shootout, they should bring on Keller for Kobel to increase their shootout chances by 8 percentage points (per my Monte Carlo simulation based on estimated skill levels)! #WorldCup #WC2026 #FIFAWorldCup #SUICOL

Max@oostermax.bsky.social · 4w ago

If we get to a shootout, Switzerland would do well to sub Keller on for Kobel. My model estimates a 77% chance that Marvin Keller is the better penalty stopper. And according to a new model of mine, this could improve their chances from 39% (with Kobel) to 47% (with Keller) in the shootout! #SUICOL

If we get to a shootout, Switzerland would do well to sub Keller on for Kobel. My model estimates a 77% chance that Marvin Keller is the better penalty stopper. And according to a new model of mine, this could improve their chances from 39% (with Kobel) to 47% (with Keller) in the shootout! #SUICOL

Messi and penalties: likely even below average over this career. He's been especially bad at deceiving the keeper, ranking in the bottom decile in sending the goalkeeper the wrong way. #WorldCup #WC2026 #FIFAWorldCup #EGYARG

The reversal of Balogun's suspension could harm the US's shootout chances #USABEL #BELUSA #FIFAWorldCup #WC2026 #WorldCup

Max@oostermax.bsky.social · last mo.

Penalty takers for both teams. Tielemans has not always been a sure bet for penalties surprisingly enough! US squad has not taken many penalties #USABEL #BELUSA #FIFAWorldCup #WC2026 #WorldCup

Which Matt defends the net for a US-Belgium penalty shootout? The US has rotated both, but my model backs Matt Turner. Data gives him a 77% probability of being the superior career penalty stopper (other pk statistics below) #USABEL #BELUSA #FIFAWorldCup #WC2026 #WorldCup

Penalty taking / stopping skill for England and Mexico. Some of the very best penalty in football play tonight with Jiménez, Kane and Toney. Henderson has likely been the better penalty stopper than Pickford during his career. Will Tuchel dare to put Henderson on? #ENGMEX #WorldCup #FIFAWorldCup

Penalty taking / stopping skill for Brazil and Norway. Both teams have very good penalty stoppers on the bench. I can't imagine Brazil substituting Alisson Becker though. Norway also unlikely with the uncertainty in skill level. Brazil appear to have the better takers #NORBRA #WorldCup #FIFAWorldCup

Cape Verde defeats Argentina via a 2-3 loss in extra time

The ref should simply let them play until Cape Verde wins

trashcans for hearts

i can't believe i'm posting this, but penalty taking and stopping skills for Argentina and Cape Verde #ARGCVP #FIFAWorldCup #WorldCup2026

both Australia and Egypt should consider a goalkeeper substitution as the better penalty stoppers are on the bench #AUSEGY #FIFAWorldCup #WorldCup2026

To illustrate just how great Bounou’s save was: the shot had a 99% goal probability based on location. But knowing Summerville seems to have a habit of shooting to the left, Bounou gambled on a small step to his right #NEDMAR

and a small fix to this post, because the scraper accidentally picked up some non-professional games (U21 level etc., also filtered some second tier non-European leagues) - conclusions largely the same