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DC Office of Revenue Analysis

@oradcgov.bsky.social

Visit: https://ora-cfo.dc.gov Contact: ora@dc.gov A division of the DC Office of the Chief Financial Officer, ORA supports the budget and policymaking process with forecasts, estimates, and analyses that ensure the District's financial integrity.

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DC Office of Revenue Analysis @oradcgov.bsky.social · yesterday

Our latest blog examines wraparound services and industry clusters with growth potential for DC residents such as technology, construction, and business support functions industries. Read more: ora-cfo.dc.gov/blog/wraparo...

This data table outlines Washington D.C.’s top ten prioritized economic clusters, ranked by a weighted index score out of 100 that balances feasibility (“Right to win”) and impact (“Want to win”). Federal Government Services holds the highest priority with an index score of 77.8, driven by a massive local talent pool of over 213,000 jobs and a high Location Quotient of 9.0, despite seeing a slight negative local growth rate of -0.5% and a 41% BIPOC workforce. Consulting Services follows in second with a score of 53.9, boasting strong local growth at 5.0% and high average annual wages of $139,000. Technology ranks third at 44.8, showing robust local growth at 4.3% and an even 50% BIPOC representation. Education and Research scores 42.2 with a sizable talent pool of nearly 66,000 jobs, while Communications and Design scores 40.8, commanding the highest annual wages on the chart at $141,000 but holding the lowest diversity rate at 31% BIPOC. The remaining five sectors show lower overall index scores but highlight specific regional trends. State Government Services scores 36.8 and leads the entire list in diversity with an 87% BIPOC workforce, alongside steady 2.3% local growth. Real Estate and Construction sits at 35.5 with moderate local growth but low feasibility indicators, followed by Distribution and Electronic Commerce at 32.9, which suffers from a very low Location Quotient and a small local talent pool. Business Support Functions ranks ninth with a score of 31.8, offering high wages of $116,000 and 59% BIPOC representation. Finally, Hospitality, Tourism, and Entertainment rounds out the list at 21.9; despite a highly diverse workforce at 65% BIPOC, the sector is constrained by negative projected U.S. growth and the lowest annual wages on the chart at $57,000. The underlying data is sourced from EMSI and Harvard Business School’s U.S. Cluster Mapping Project for the Government of the District of Columbia.

DC Office of Revenue Analysis @oradcgov.bsky.social · 2w ago

Good morning, DC! Take a break with us and catch up on the latest DC Economic and Revenue Trends Review for June 2026. Read it here: ora-cfo.dc.gov/publication/...

Image reports the highlights from the DC Economic and Revenue Trends report published by the District of Columbia Office of Revenue Analysis for June 2026. The image highlights that DC jobs declined 5.3% over the last year; federal government accounted for 24.6% of all wages in DC; at mid-year 2025, DC’s population was estimated to be 2,335 or 0.3% higher than the prior year; the office vacancy rate has increased to 18.3%; single-family home sales were up 5.4% from a year earlier, while the average home price was 2.5% lower; condo sales were down 9.0% from last year and the average price was 4.3% lower; and, there were 3.8% fewer hotel-room-days sold than a year ago. The report highlights changes in employment, wages, office vacancy rate, single-family home sales, condo sales, and hotel-room-days. Users can read more by clicking the link in the post.

DC Office of Revenue Analysis @oradcgov.bsky.social · 2mo ago

Good afternoon, DC! Take a break with us today, and catch up on the latest DC Economic and Revenue Trends Review for May 2026. Read it here: ora-cfo.dc.gov/publication/...

DC Office of Revenue Analysis @oradcgov.bsky.social · 2mo ago

New: We examine wraparound services. Programs providing services such as childcare, transportation, food, or housing during job training or searches. Upon completion, studies report participants generated substantial and persistent earnings. Read more: ora-cfo.dc.gov/blog/wraparo...

This image is a map of Washington, D.C. showing the boundaries of Wards 1 through 8. Numbered red dots (1 through 36) mark the locations of community organizations across the city.

DC Office of Revenue Analysis @oradcgov.bsky.social · 2mo ago

Good morning, DC! We are back with the latest DC Economic and Revenue Trends Review for April 2026. Read it here: ora-cfo.dc.gov/publication/...

DC Office of Revenue Analysis @oradcgov.bsky.social · 3mo ago

Good morning, DC! We are back with the latest DC Economic and Revenue Trends Review for March 2026. Read it here: ora-cfo.dc.gov/publication/...

DC Office of Revenue Analysis @oradcgov.bsky.social · 4mo ago

The District's real retail activity has grown steadily by an average of 2.2 percent annually since 2019, despite job and resident losses during the pandemic. Read more in our latest: ora-cfo.dc.gov/blog/dc-rest...

This image shows annual General rate (retail) sales tax collections from 2019 to 2025. Each year’s total (represented by the bars) is divided into the inflationary portion, indexed to 2019, and the real, inflation adjusted portion. The 2025 amount was 38.9 percent higher than the FY 2019 level in nominal terms. After adjusting for inflation, we find that 17.8 percent of the retail tax collections in 2025 were due to inflation.

DC Office of Revenue Analysis @oradcgov.bsky.social · 4mo ago

Good morning, DC! We are back with the latest DC Economic and Revenue Trends Review for February 2026. Read it here: ora-cfo.dc.gov/publication/...

DC Office of Revenue Analysis @oradcgov.bsky.social · 4mo ago

Rising prices, not increased sales, was the sole driver of restaurant sales tax revenue between 2019-2025 in DC. Read more: ora-cfo.dc.gov/blog/dc-rest...

The image shows a bar chart that reports the nominal restaurant sales tax revenue grew by 27.1 percent from 2019 to 2025. But during the same period, average restaurant prices across the District increased by 33.2 percent. After accounting for price increases, we find that restaurant sales volume declined 15 percent. The observed growth in restaurant sales tax revenue over this period was driven solely by rising prices, not by increased sales.

DC Office of Revenue Analysis @oradcgov.bsky.social · 5mo ago

Nearly 47% of separations in DC from federal employment in 2025 reported having a Master’s degree or higher. These losses accounted for nearly $2.4 billion, or 53%, of the total federal annual pay lost in 2025 from separations. Read more in our latest: ora-cfo.dc.gov/blog/deep-di...

The image shows a bar chart for those with a Master’s degree or higher that separated from federal employment in the District of Columbia in 2025. The highest bar, Master’s degree, reported 8,266 individuals separating from federal employee in the District and the second highest, First Professional, 3,350. The total of these separations accounted for 47 percent of the total federal separations in the District in 2025, and 53 percent of total lost wages, or $2.4 billion.

DC Office of Revenue Analysis @oradcgov.bsky.social · 5mo ago

Our latest blog analyzes newly released Office of Personnel Management data for 2025 on federal separations and the impact it had on the District. We found that the net loss to the District is about 22,356 jobs and $3.656 billion in annualized pay. Read more: ora-cfo.dc.gov/blog/deep-di...

The image shows a bar chart reporting the federal separations by month for the year of 2025, for federal employees that report to the District of Columbia. The largest month of separations is highlighted in this bar chart as September 2025 with 10,890 federal employees reporting as separated from federal government employment.

DC Office of Revenue Analysis @oradcgov.bsky.social · 5mo ago

Millennials represent the largest share of income tax filers in Washington, D.C., with most officially relocating to the city after 2017. Read more here: ora-cfo.dc.gov/node/1818301

The image shows a bar chart with three charts for the Rate of In-migration of Current Millennial Tax Filers in the District of Columbia between 2018 to 2022. The first bar is for years of in-migrations 2008-2012 which represents 8.7 percent of the total millennial tax filers share. The second bar shows that the 37.7 percent of millennial tax filers in-migrated to the District between 2013 and 2017. Finally, the last bar shows the remaining 53.6 percent in-migrated to the District between 2018 and 2022.

DC Office of Revenue Analysis @oradcgov.bsky.social · 5mo ago

ORA's latest report: Millennials make up the largest The latest study categorizes them into two cohorts, Newcomers and Longtimers, and analyzes their role and impact on the city’s economy. Read more here: ora-cfo.dc.gov/node/1818301

The image shows a summary statistics table for DC Millennials by two categories: Newcomers and Longtimers. The statistics are for 2022, ranging from Average Annual Income, number of tax filers, total reported income, tax filing status, average household size, number of homeowners, average home value, average total household income for homeowners, average estimated housing cost burden for renters, average estimate housing cost burden for homeowners, and those that are reported as living with parents in their parent's DC Homesteads.

DC Office of Revenue Analysis @oradcgov.bsky.social · 6mo ago

While most new arriving residents have consistently been around age 23 and exiting residents typically range from 25 to 27, Gen Z is steadily emerging as the dominant demographic among new residents. Read more in our latest: ora-cfo.dc.gov/blog/populat...

The image shows an area chart of in-migration and out-migration by age of residents over the period of 2019-2023. The chart demonstrates that a large portion of DC's in-migration happens most around 23, and that the most popular age of out-migration 25-27 from the District.

The image shows a Figure from the blow post about the Distribution of in-migration to DC between 2019 through 2023 by age-generation of resident. The data indicates that Gen Z is becoming a larger share of the in-migration on an annual basis to DC.

DC Office of Revenue Analysis @oradcgov.bsky.social · 6mo ago

ORA examined annual tax records for migration from 2019-2023. This post examines DC's sharp population decline between 2019-2021, finding it was driven not only by an increase in out-migration but also a decrease in the average number of in-migration. Read more: ora-cfo.dc.gov/blog/populat...

The image shows two graphs from the blog post. The first graph to the left reports annual in-migration of new tax filers to the District of Columbia by quarter from 2019 thru 2023. This graph shows the majority of in-migration occurs during quarter 3 of a year. Whereas the second graph to the right shows annual out-migration of former tax filers by quarter for the District between 2019 thru 2023. Both quarters 2 and 3 were nearly equal for individuals moving out of the District of Columbia within a given year. Quarter 2 of 2020 had a significant effect on the out-migration in 2020 that may have contributed to the significant increase in out-migration in quarter 3 of 2020.

DC Office of Revenue Analysis @oradcgov.bsky.social · 6mo ago

Between September and November, the District lost 19,000 jobs, bringing total employment to 739,200. Despite these losses, District residents didn’t fare as badly as resident employment remains 1.8% above pre-pandemic levels. Read more about the latest job report: ora-cfo.dc.gov/blog/what-do...

Alt Text: The image shows a graph for DC Jobs vs. DC Resident Employment from January 2020 through January 2026. Using January 2020 as the base, the line graph shows the difference over time where less than 100 would be a loss from January 2020 and greater than 100 shows a gain from January 2020. As of January 2026, total jobs in the District are 92 percent of January 2020 levels; whereas, DC Resident Employment is 101.8 percent of January 2020 levels.

DC Office of Revenue Analysis @oradcgov.bsky.social · 8mo ago

In ORA’s latest blog post, we find that the District’s population is the second youngest among U.S. states with a median age of 34.9. Moreover, women outnumber men with 11% more women than men. Read more here: ora-cfo.dc.gov/blog/populat...

The images show two graphs. The first graph reports the share of DC's population by generational cohort, and the second is a pie chart reporting the share of men to women of DC's population. Both graphs are for the year 2024. Findings include that millennials out number all other generations in DC and women outnumber men by 52.6% to 47.4%.

DC Office of Revenue Analysis @oradcgov.bsky.social · 9mo ago

Homeownership trends in DC are shifting amid housing affordability challenges and demographic changes. Notably, more women are becoming homeowners. In our latest blog post, ORA explores several factors that likely contributed to this change. Read here: ora-cfo.dc.gov/blog/women-d...

The image in this post shows the difference of Homestead Owners in the District of Columbia between 2014 and 2024. In 2014, women accounted for 38.3% of homestead ownership, whereas men accounted for 61.7%. By 2024, women accounted for 47.6% vs men, who only accounted for 52.4% by this time.

DC Office of Revenue Analysis @oradcgov.bsky.social · last yr.

How will the federal government’s downsizing impact wages and personal income in the District? We look to lessons from the 1990s, when federal downsizing between Q1 of 1993 and Q2 of 1996 decreased wages by $4 billion. ora-cfo.dc.gov/blog/lost-de...

The image is a table reporting the change in Wages and Salaries and Personal Income in DC between Quarter 1 of 1993 to Quarter 2 of 1996, around the time of the last big federal downsizing. Over this period, DC wages and salaries declined by nearly $4 billion, or about 7 percent. Over this same period, DC Personal Income declined by approximately $1.2 billion or 3 percent.

DC Office of Revenue Analysis @oradcgov.bsky.social · last yr.

What happens to the District when the federal government shrinks significantly to wages and income? In Part 2 of our series looking at the last time the federal government downsized we examine these impacts in the District: ora-cfo.dc.gov/blog/lost-de...

Image of a line graph showing the change of wages and salaries, and personal income in DC from the first quarter of 1970 through the fourth quarter of 2024. The blue line is DC Personal Income and the yellow line is Wages and Salaries in DC throughout this period. The graph also highlights periods where recessions occurred throughout this time using grey bars. Data for this graph was sourced from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

DC Office of Revenue Analysis @oradcgov.bsky.social · last yr.

Good morning, DC! We can't think of a better way to spend the morning than catching up on the latest DC Economic and Revenue Trends Report! Read it here: ora-cfo.dc.gov/blog/dc-econ...

DC Office of Revenue Analysis @oradcgov.bsky.social · last yr.

How will the federal government’s downsizing impact the District? We look to lessons from the 1990s, when the federal workforce in DC was cut by 22%. ora-cfo.dc.gov/blog/lost-de...

The image show a graph derived from employment data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The graph has two lines, one blue for the federal government employment and one orange for total non-farm employment. The two lines report the employment from 1990-2025, comparing the last time federal government employment had a significant decline in the 1990s.

DC Office of Revenue Analysis @oradcgov.bsky.social · last yr.

What happens to the District when the federal government shrinks significantly? We looked at the last time it happened: the 1990s. ora-cfo.dc.gov/blog/lost-de...

DC Office of Revenue Analysis @oradcgov.bsky.social · last yr.

It's the end of the month, and that means a new DC Economic and Revenue Trends report! Catch up on all the changes here: ora-cfo.dc.gov/blog/dc-econ...

The image shows the highlights from DC's Economic and Revenue Trends report for March 2025 on: jobs, wages, population, office vacancy, home sales, and hotel stays.

DC Office of Revenue Analysis @oradcgov.bsky.social · last yr.

How are we monitoring the federal downsizing and its impact on DC? This week’s blog post dives into the data we are monitoring and the dashboards we built for DC and Nationwide to track these impacts. ora-cfo.dc.gov/blog/federal...

The image shows two maps for federal civilian continued unemployment claims and state unemployment claims for US states with a color that indicates states with more or fewer claims. This image is a scree capture from a nationwide dashboard built by ORA to track impacts from federal downsizing.

DC Office of Revenue Analysis @oradcgov.bsky.social · last yr.

Our office is actively monitoring the federal government layoffs and impacts on the District. Read our new blog post about the data we are tracking and two new dashboards we have built: ora-cfo.dc.gov/blog/how-we%...

Image shows a dashboard that reports state data for state unemployment insurance claims, federal civilian unemployment insurance claims, federal unemployment insurance claims payments, and working adjustment and training notifications.

DC Office of Revenue Analysis @oradcgov.bsky.social · last yr.

While you wait for the cherry blossoms to bloom, catch up on our latest DC Economic and Revenue Trends Report for February 2025! Now available: ora-cfo.dc.gov/publication/...

DC Office of Revenue Analysis @oradcgov.bsky.social · last yr.

It may rain today, but a good cup of tea and a new DC Economic and Revenue Trends Report is a good way to spend the afternoon. Read the latest for January 2025 here: ora-cfo.dc.gov/publication/...

DC Office of Revenue Analysis @oradcgov.bsky.social · 2y ago

It's cold outside, but this data is hot off the press! Take a break, and check out the latest monthly DC Economic and Revenue Trends. Read the full report here: ora-cfo.dc.gov/publication/...

DC Office of Revenue Analysis @oradcgov.bsky.social · 2y ago

We recently released our quarterly revenue estimate for DC: ora-cfo.dc.gov/blog/dc-reve... • Estimate for FY 2025-2028 remains unchanged • Actual preliminary revenue for FY 2024 is higher than expected • US election introduces uncertainty in future years due to potential new federal policies