The Orca Fin
@orcafin.bsky.social
A good message will always find a messenger. https://orcafin.beehiiv.com/
Since this post: $CTSH +38%, $ACN +37%, $BAH +19%, $EPAM +31%
The Orca Fin@orcafin.bsky.social · last mo.Everybody is rushing to build a consulting business, but the market has been dumping $ACN $CTSH $BAH $EPAM etc. Lots of misunderstanding in the AI space, but it opens up opportunities for discerning investors.
1. Iran has no benefit in doing a deal. They want the disruption to last till the midterms. Iran can get much more favorable terms when the global economy is hurting badly due to the conflict. 2. Currency intervention leads to worse outcomes, as they never work.
Smart people go broke through three things: liquor, ladies, and leverage. - Charlie Munger Warren Buffett noted that Munger added the first two because they started with the letter "L," while leverage is the true danger that actually destroys fortunes.
Samsung Q2 DRAM bit shipments grew by a low-double-digit %, and NAND bit shipments increased by a single-digit % compared to the previous quarter. Q3 Bit growth to remain in the single-digit range. Huge demand, right? How long can prices keep going up to sustain revenue growth?
I warned about KOSPI on June 26. The horror show, if it plays out, is that it rides the band lower.
The Orca Fin@orcafin.bsky.social · last mo.Negative divergence on the KOSPI daily chart. A short-term sell-off is highly probable. Kospi down 7.5%. More to come.
SK Hynix reports on the 29th, and Samsung releases its Q2 report on the 30th. Stat to focus on? Bit shipments. Ah, well, if Micron bulls had focused on that when Micron reported, they wouldn't be holding the bag on MU and SNDK. Everybody has access to SEC filings; read them.
I told you this was going to happen. The bigger implication is that the Frontier labs are not getting much of the $40 trillion being spent on white-collar workers globally. So, I will ask again: what is the TAM now to justify the trillions in CAPEX?
Being associated with OpenAI in any shape or form is like the kiss of death for any company.
Nice rebound in $BAH ... cyber and defense (AI) drive ... up 14% ... and people thought IT consulting was dead ... lol ... opportunities galore for those who understand...
The Orca Fin@orcafin.bsky.social · last mo.Everybody is rushing to build a consulting business, but the market has been dumping $ACN $CTSH $BAH $EPAM etc. Lots of misunderstanding in the AI space, but it opens up opportunities for discerning investors.
I warned about KOSPI on June 26. The horror show, if it plays out, is that it rides the band lower.
The Orca Fin@orcafin.bsky.social · last mo.Negative divergence on the KOSPI daily chart. A short-term sell-off is highly probable. Kospi down 7.5%. More to come.
1. High intelligence does not protect against market psychology, herd mentality, or emotional decision-making. 2. Successful market participation requires patience, discipline, and risk management rather than a mathematical formula.
Global economy in trouble. This time, oil is going parabolic big time. If this gets worse, $200+ Brent is not out of the question. That blows out yields and compresses valuations across the board. So: - AI trade blowing up - Endless war - Inflation going crazy Be safe.
Albertsons, $ACI: - cut its annual identical-sales and profit forecasts - higher gas and food prices have caused households to become more selective in their spending - middle- and lower-income consumers continue to trade down ACI down 17% pre-market. Hello, subprime credit!
As hyperscalers raise CAPEX guidance, they will sell off, as there is no path to sustainable ROI; however, semis will benefit as the CAPEX flows to them. Since CAPEX is unsustainable, further valuation re-rating of semis is unlikely. Finally, everything crashes.
The Orca Fin@orcafin.bsky.social · last mo.The headline-driven seesaw between hyperscalers and semis is the new norm till both flash crash in a generational flameout. Not many are prepared for such a scenario.
As the 10-Year Yield continues to rise, currently 4.66%, valuation compression will continue, especially in the tech space. Valuations do matter; it's not a matter of if, but when.
$TSLA FCF turns negative. ~60% of EPS came from non-operating income. I am fully aware that there is no point in discussing Tesla's valuations or its operations. It's a fanboy stonk, so there is that.
Semiconductor bottleneck investors are about to learn a lesson Sir Issac Newton learnt a long time ago, the hard way.
Stocks go parabolic for a while as the currency, the Yen in this case, crashes, but eventually, as it happened in Zimbabwe, stocks crash.
The Orca Fin@orcafin.bsky.social · last mo.Zimbabwefication of Japan. As the Yen crashes, the Nikkei 225 goes parabolic.
What is happening to Oracle will eventually happen to all hyperscalers. That might be a 2027 thing, though. Lever up your balance sheet to fund garbage, and you will eventually be treated as such.
Even the most powerful technology on earth still has to pass through the boring discipline of cost curves, capacity limits, and marginal returns.
It is a snooze fest in the defense space, even though the $1.5 trillion defense budget will eventually get passed. If enterprises announced a one-year $1.5 trillion CAPEX plan on AI today, the semi-space would be 30+%. Not sure which one is a rational or retarded reaction.
