Oswald

@oswald.bsky.social

I haven’t seen AI as a bubble in some time, but I really question those with a strong opinion that it isn’t if you are not up close and personal with how knowledge workers are using these tools.

I feel like it’s under-reported how variable AI output is becoming. Would Google have become as dominant if every 3 weeks, searching for a restaurant yielded extremely different quality results?

2026 Predictions: * Consumer preferences will go from hostile to only mildly negative for AI in media/outputs. * The Year of AI Psychosis * We’ll keep ascending AI benchmarks, keep hyperbolizing, and keep wondering why it doesn’t quite get the job done.

A few observations on AI that have been interesting to me: * A significant rise in engineers calling the recent models AGI. * A general investor reluctance to admit there’s a bubble, even though most of the industry admit one * The implication that there’s no value in deterministic processes.

“We’ll see how [obviously bad thing] turns out in the data” is such a good online position to always hold because it lets you be both incredibly pompous and so late to everything that you can pretend “but that’s obvious” when you turn out to be wrong.

The serious person take on all this is that somehow SCOTUS and other institutions thought the Fed would somehow still be off limits? There was an implicit bet or bargain? C’mon. You’ll be marks until your last day.

Trump’s lasting legacy will be America’s transition to state capitalism, and embrace of authoritarian measures to safeguard it. We’ll have no push back from the normal free enterprise crew, as long as they’re promised a place on top of the plebs in hierarchy…until we have a new president.

Spoke with a patent lawyer on an unrelated topic and he told me: “I know it sounds crazy but I tell clients to never, under any circumstances, discuss the contents of a potential patent with an LLM”

Oswald@oswald.bsky.social · last yr.

We’ve burnt our Library at Alexandria and are starting all over from here. Only new information/knowledge is valuable. Everything else has been commoditized. New techniques are to be hoarded and never, ever discussed on the internet.

Watching Yellowstone for the first time and I think it’s perhaps the greatest show ever made with atrocious politics. Can’t think of another one in its class.