As the article rightly points out, local polling (especially when party-affiliated) should be treated with skepticism. That said, it's useful for sense checking our electorate modelling. www.thepost.co.nz/nz-news/3610...

In 2023, three seats were decided by overseas special votes: Nelson, Mt Albert, and Tāmaki Makaurau. Also happened to be the three closest races. Only 3% of total votes, but can get as high as 8% in inner-urban seats like Wellington Central or Mt Albert.

Newsroom NZ@newsroom.co.nz · 7mo ago

Erin Gourley, now studying law in Sweden, missed last year’s local elections but says she won’t forget again.

Now out via the newsletter: the final exhaustive (and exhausting) analysis of the effects of the 2025 boundary review on electorate contests. theoverhangaonz.substack.com/p/the-overha...

In your inboxes now: a brief and slight self-indulgent preview of the Wellington City Council race this weekend. theoverhangaonz.substack.com/p/the-overha...

The Overhang: Wellington Special Edition

A brief, belated, and not especially rigorous preview and analysis of the Wellington City local elections.

theoverhangaonz.substack.com

Of interest heading into this weekend's local elections: ward-level estimates of the 2023 general election party vote. Interactive version here: public.flourish.studio/visualisatio...

All wards

A Flourish data visualization by The Overhang

public.flourish.studio

Auckland City Council ballot returns, as of Tuesday 7th October. 18% back as of today. Tracking lower than any previous year.

Wellington City Council ballot returns, as of Monday 6th October. 21% back as of yesterday. Highest turn out at this point since 2010. Whether that points to higher total turnout or is a factor of the early start period remains to be seen.

New piece via The Overhang newsletter: Halfway(ish). This time we look at how the Sixth National Government is doing in the polls, and how that compares historically. tl;dr: Eeehhhhhhh. Not great. Could be worse. theoverhangaonz.substack.com/p/the-overha...

New piece via The Overhang newsletter: Halfway(ish). This time we look at how the Sixth National Government is doing in the polls, and how that compares historically. tl;dr: Eeehhhhhhh. Not great. Could be worse. theoverhangaonz.substack.com/p/the-overha...

NZ polling update: December 2024 We're back! National (33%) hold a reasonable lead over Labour (30%). Figures for ACT (10%), NZ First (6%), the Greens (11%) and TPM (6%) give the right a 3% lead over the left. TOP are on 2.4%. Other right-wing parties on 1.5% combined.

Kia ora. Setting up the Aotearoa politics data store here too. Content to follow in due course.