Owen Winter
@owenwntr.bsky.social
Covering politics, elections and data at The Economist
you'd have thought they could get better audio/video quality for Zack's big comeback speech
The Green Party of England & Wales@greenparty.org.uk · 2d agoZack Polanski delivers ‘reality check’ to Burnham over ‘biggest crisis since WWII’ after summer of extreme heat
Restore's vote share in Greater Manchester is the highest for any far-right (right-of-Reform) party since 2010, when Nick Griffin won 15% in Barking
Bev Craig's first preference share is four points higher than Labour won in the 2024 general election
Labour's share: Manchester 54% (+23 vs local elections) Stockport 50% (+37) Trafford 50% (+27) Wigan 47% (+22) Bury 47% (+21) Salford 47% (+19) Tameside 42% (+18) Oldham 42% (+21) Rochdale 41% (+16) Bolton 40% (+21)
Restore got 14% in Tameside, 12% in Rochdale and 12% in Oldham
Manchester mayoral results, first round Bev Craig - Labour 47% (+24 vs local elections) Reform 21% (-10) Green 12% (-7) Restore 9% (new) Conservative 8% (-3) Lib Dem 3% (-7)
Second round between Labour and Reform in Greater Manchester. Greens, Tories and Lib Dems knocked out
With today's poll from BMG, it looks like Labour's poll bounce under Burnham has been on average ~4.7 points. A 2 point bounce when Starmer resigned and a further 2.7 points when Burnham became PM
Average income tax per person, 2023/4: London £14,700 Greater Manchester £5,450 West Yorkshire £5,050 West Midlands £4,850 South Yorkshire £4,550 www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
Andy Burnham to give regional mayors share of income tax
The prime minister says the move will give power to "every postcode" but critics say the plans lack detail.
bbc.co.uk
In a best PM matchup, Nigel Farage loses against every other party leader: Burnham +26 Badenoch +24 Davey +11 Polanski +2 yougov.com/en-gb/articl...
This week's YouGov/Economist poll gives Donald Trump a net approval of -28. Lowest of any YouGov/Economist presidential approval since the poll began in 2009
Man City started the world cup with the most players in the tournament (19). By the final, Atlético Madrid had the most (9) followed by Barcelona (8)
Do Andy B's northern creds win votes? Stack Data Strategy asked voting intention with and without listing him as PM. When Burnham is included, Labour's share rises by as much as 10pts in Manchester and other areas of the north www.economist.com/britain/2026...
Burnham’s self-branding as the PM for the north has been phenomenally successful. If you’re a Labour MP for the Thames estuary, perhaps too successful. By the great @owenwntr.bsky.social economist.com/britain/2026...
Find it interesting/surprising that neither of Kemi Badenoch or Zack Polanski did any social posts about the World Cup
Well, we will always have the Azteca thriller & tonight’s absolute goalfest Best performance since 1966 & a foundation to build on.
Think the alarming part for Reform about the Burnham bounce is that the Tories are rising too. His poll bump is likely to be fleeting, theirs might not be
Election Maps UK@electionmaps.uk · 3w agoWestminster Voting Intention: RFM: 23% (-1) LAB: 22% (+3) CON: 20% (+2) GRN: 14% (-2) LDM: 11% (-1) SNP: 3% (=) Via @opiniumresearch.bsky.social, 15-17 Jul. Changes w/ 7-10 Jul.
Lula leads polls for the first round of Brazil's election by around. 8 points and for the second round by 4 points over Flavio Bolsonaro (the son of Jair Bolsonaro)
Keir Starmer's official spokesperson: "The World Cup might not be ours but the Falkland Islands definitely are” Asked who the PM would be supporting in the final, the spokesperson said: “The PM wishes both teams well for the final, especially Spain.”
Outrageous: doesn't seem to be weighted for tournaments over qualifiers and friendlies!
Owen Winter@owenwntr.bsky.social · 3w agoSo far, Keir Starmer has the highest England win rate of any British Prime Minister (76%). Liz Truss has the lowest (0% of two games)
So far, Keir Starmer has the highest England win rate of any British Prime Minister (76%). Liz Truss has the lowest (0% of two games)
Find it interesting how little Wales features in Labour's leadership conversation, given this happened only two months ago
73% say Farage is sleazy. I was also genuinely surprised that more people think Polanski is sleazy than any of Burnham, Badenoch or Davey yougov.com/en-gb/articl...
Why has Nigel Farage pulled the by-election stunt? Because it's easier than convincing voters Reform is a government-in-waiting. My take on what Clacton tells us about Reform: www.economist.com/britain/2026...
Feel like we might look back on this as the beginning of the end of Farage. Such a weird misstep
Owen Winter@owenwntr.bsky.social · last mo.Struggle to see what Farage gets out of a by-election with no major opponents. Talking to himself in Clacton while the headlines follow Burnham's first 100 days?
Struggle to see what Farage gets out of a by-election with no major opponents. Talking to himself in Clacton while the headlines follow Burnham's first 100 days?
Not sure the other parties should stand candidates in Clacton. Labour didn't in 2008 to deny David Davis his stunt
I wonder how big of a problem is for South East Wales that the new Welsh govt is predominantly based in North and West Wales and is sceptical of economic integration with England
