Patrick Flynn
@patrickjfl.bsky.social
Pollster and Senior Data Journalist at Focaldata. Hoping this platform takes off. (he/him) 🏳️🌈 patrick@focaldata.com
New post from me on 'Ossoffism' and party brands in the US 👇 www.focaldata.com/blog/ossoffi...
'Ossoffism' and the GOP's Elite Problem
This month's survey sought to find out which party’s brand was more ‘elite-coded’, and whether the nascent ‘Ossoffism’ has a future in US politics over the next few years.
focaldata.com
The Republican brand in the US has become *heavily* 'elite-coded'. Out of 40 archetypes we tested in our latest survey with @financialtimes.com, billionaires, CEOs, and country club members were the most Republican-leaning groups in the eyes of American voters.
Labour electing Burnham unopposed is a big risk in my view. Sure, it avoids potential party in-fighting over the summer, but is that risk really bigger than electing a new PM in a matter of weeks where few MPs, let alone the public, actually know what his plan is for the country?
New post-locals piece with my brilliant colleague @matthewbprice.bsky.social unherd.com/2026/05/six-...
Six coping myths about the local election
unherd.com
Excited to reveal the first @focaldata.bsky.social House of Representatives MRP poll of 2026. 🔵 Democrats: 228 seats (+13) 🔴 Republicans: 207 seats (-13) Fieldwork conducted up to Monday this week, and the model accounts for last night's redistricting referendum in Virginia.
The economy might cost Donald Trump the House in November. Economic hardship is driving voter behaviour at more than twice the rate of the next biggest issue.
Greens up to a record high of 13% in our first post-G&D poll. 🟣 RFM: 27% (+1) 🔴 LAB: 20% (-1) 🔵 CON: 18% (-2) 🟠 LDM: 14% (-) 🟢 GRN: 13% (+3) ⚫️ Restore Britain: 2% (NEW) ⚫️ Your Party: <1% (NEW)
Attention spans have collapsed. So why are some politicians more popular than ever?
We're about to release a piece on the attention crisis gripping young people. Some pretty shocking stats in it
We just released our first US midterms polling of 2026. The main story is a familiar one, that the cost of living is again set to punish the incumbent. Since 2024, the Democrats' vote margin has increased by double digits with those most concerned about food/gas prices.
Great to see our latest geopolitics white paper written up by the Guardian's dataviz team! www.theguardian.com/world/ng-int...
These charts show how Trump is isolating the US on the world stage
Analysis shows that the world is moving closer to China, as Trump’s isolationism rears its head at the United Nations
theguardian.com
The geopolitical centre of gravity is shifting towards China, driven primarily by Europe's increased distance from the US under the Trump II era. We analysed decades of UN voting data to create a new US-China axis, and found the US advantage is at its lowest level this century.
Over the last month, I've been analysing the results of thousands of UN votes to create a new geopolitical axis. I was struck by just how severe the Trump effect has been since his second term began. UK-US alignment is now at an all-time low.
Our first voting intention poll of 2026 sees Reform slipping to 26%, down 3 points since late November. 🟣 RFM: 26% (-3) 🔴 LAB: 21% (+1) 🔵 CON: 20% (+2) 🟠 LDM: 14% (+1) 🟢 GRN: 10% (-2)
Pleased to say we've just launched a new white paper on digital sovereignty (a phrase we'll probably be hearing more of in the next 12 months). Download it here: www.focaldata.com/blog/britain...
Britain's Digital Future: A new white paper from Focaldata
We are delighted to announce the release of our latest white paper, Britain's Digital Future: Why digital sovereignty could become the next major political divide.
focaldata.com
On the eve of the Autumn Budget, our latest polling finds that *over half* of 2024 Labour voters who are 'finding it difficult' economically have now switched parties. 17% now back the Greens, and a further 17% back Reform. 🧵
With COP30 coming to a close today, which party do Brits trust most on climate and energy topics? Greens are trusted most on core environmental issues, but fare less well on energy policy. Reflects a common issue, that voters aren't sure climate action = better economic outcomes.
Our latest blog looks at attitudes to proportional representation in the UK, and why the debate is likely to go mainstream in the next couple of years. But how would a PR referendum campaign go? What would the House of Commons look like under PR? 👇 www.focaldata.com/blog/has-the...
Has the time come for Proportional Representation?
After bubbling away in policy circles since the AV referendum in 2011, the debate over electoral reform is likely to burst back into the mainstream in the coming years. There are a few major factors d...
focaldata.com
NEW: Brits would back Zack Polanski if they had a vote in the Green Party leadership election. After seeing campaign videos from each candidate, voters across all age groups, parties and regions preferred Polanski to the Adrian Ramsay and Ellie Chowns candidacy 👇
Patrick Flynn@patrickjfl.bsky.social · last yr.We've got some polling coming on the Green Party leadership race this week, with voting still open for party members. We showed the public videos from the two campaigns and asked who they would vote for if they were eligible. One campaign leads with voters of *all parties*.
We've got some polling coming on the Green Party leadership race this week, with voting still open for party members. We showed the public videos from the two campaigns and asked who they would vote for if they were eligible. One campaign leads with voters of *all parties*.
We've just released a new white paper here at @focaldata.bsky.social, explaining why support for overseas aid has fallen among both voters and governments in the West, and why Net Zero risks going the same way. 🧵 Quick thread of some of the findings:
Small samples so would be careful over-interpreting, but seeing evidence of the young gender split in our poll (Reform at 25% with male 16-17 year olds, 10% with female)
Oliver White @oliverdwwhite.bsky.social · last yr.Do you have breakdowns of 16-17 olds by gender?
Latest Westminster voting intention from us at @focaldata.bsky.social sees minor impact of votes at 16 (Reform's lead cut from 3.7 points to 3.3)
Stats-based forecast for tonight's Eurovision final. The model is based on a combination of historical voting patterns, running order analysis, betting odds, and my own subjective opinion. Basically a coin flip that Sweden 🇸🇪 gets its 8th victory tonight based on 5,000 simulations.
Labour about to fall into *sixth* including independents...
🇨🇦🧵 Quick thread on some of our findings ahead of today's Canadian election. Our headline results put the Liberals ahead, but we've uncovered evidence that the Conservatives may have won the election (or at least the most seats) if Trump had not won in November.
Our poll for Monday's Canadian election finds the Liberals with a narrow 3-point lead, with 40.5% of the vote to the Conservatives' 37.5%. Some very interesting findings under the hood -- more details coming over the weekend.
Latest UK voting intention from us finds Labour, Conservatives and Reform neck-and-neck... www.focaldata.com/blog/westmin...
New piece from me on where the public in 🇬🇧🇫🇷🇩🇪 stands on defence and security. www.focaldata.com/blog/will-se...
Will security be the wedge issue which splits Europe’s radical right?
The radical right in Europe is achieving its best election results in history. In Germany, the far-right AfD surged to 21% of the vote in last month’s election, finishing in second place nationally fo...
focaldata.com
