Paul Bali
@paulbali.com
My views only https://chipsgunsandmoney.substack.com/
It was always naive to think Europe could rely on Washington, or other 'like-minded partners,' to secure its own resource supply www.ft.com/content/3a1e...
US bans exports of various used critical minerals
Washington announces year-long ban on overseas sales of scrap tungsten and ‘black mass’
ft.com
It’s pretty striking how desperate local authorities have become in their hunt for fresh fiscal resource giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/... China launches global tax hunt going back decades
China launches global tax hunt going back decades
Fiscal pressure sparks retroactive campaign and tougher controls on future offshore capital flows
giftarticle.ft.com
This moment will be remembered not just because it exposed deep divisions within Europe, much deeper than most analysts expected, but because of what it says about Europe's ability to act as one coherent political entity on the international stage (and during acute crises)
Finbarr Bermingham@fbermingham.bsky.social · 2d agoCeuta... how depressingly divided Europe is. Zero solidarity. Despite big-character posters draped on the side of EU buildings, zero unity. Does Brussels still believe a "solidarity fund" can convince capitals to band together to take on China in a trade war in the Autumn?
Interesting
Isaac Samuel@rhaplord.bsky.social · 3d agoEthnographers often assume that in Africa the colour white was interchangeable with the Western racial concept of “whiteness” But such inferences are based on an uncritical interpretation of historical data and project modern racial concepts into the past www.africanhistoryextra.com/p/the-white-...
Interesting that no one has criticized the Moroccan regime yet, one of Europe's most important "partners" on migration, which just sent almost 60 of its own people, including children, to drown in the sea, just to annoy Madrid a tiny bit. That doesnt seem like a government we should do business with
Canada’s Alimentation Couche-Tard is set to acquire Poland’s Żabka, Europe’s largest convenience store chain, in a deal worth around €7.5 billion. The takeover could see Żabka leave the Warsaw Stock Exchange just two years after its debut. notesfrompoland.com/2026/07/31/c...
Canadian company launches €7.5 billion bid for Polish convenience store chain Żabka
notesfrompoland.com
(1/3) The IMF finds “China is backing strategic businesses, like green tech, while the west props up old sectors with political clout, like agriculture.” In the West, capital disciplines the state to prop up high profits in old industries.
Komt voornamelijk door de situatie op de oliemarkt
ESB@esb.nu · 6d agoDe economische impact van de oorlog in Iran is beperkter dan die bij eerdere grote energieprijsschokken. Dat komt door de afgenomen olieafhankelijkheid van moderne economieën en een groter aanpassingsvermogen, schrijven Van den End et al. esb.nu/lagere-oliea...
The real driver of Moroccan outward migration is the country's government by a corrupt, extractive Francophone elite that spends more money on football stadiums than providing economic opportunity to its people
Makes no sense to count on market-based financing to close the resources gap. This is an area that needs high public subsidies for a long period of time. Think of it as vital infrastructure, or defense spending www.ft.com/content/5f86...
Hedge funds raise bets against US-backed critical minerals companies
Short sellers increase wagers amid concerns that rally had run too far
ft.com
Caixin: "China’s top leadership is expected to hold off on major new stimulus at a key Politburo meeting in late July, focusing instead on executing existing fiscal policies to stabilize a slowing economy." www.caixinglobal.com/2026-07-28/a...
Analysis: China Likely to Forgo Major Stimulus as Growth Target Remains in Reach
Beijing is expected to prioritize deploying existing funds over new bazookas amid local debt constraints
caixinglobal.com
Proposed Strait of Hormuz Framework Would Ensure Shared Oversight, Not Iranian Control Alone, Source Says
Last week I visited the Woudagemaal, one of the last bastions of classic Dutch industry. The Woudagemaal basically pumps water from Frysland into the Ijsselmeer, helping keep water levels on target (and our feet dry). The Rhine’s low water level was duly commented upon during the tour…
Brick apartments in Arak, Iran Sometimes I wonder if this kind of brickwork is built specifically for cat burglars… The architect is Vahid Gharib
People are talking about the new album but keith richards older stuff is actually also worth checking out
When you outsource industrial and technological innovation, don’t be surprised when your adversary’s military capacity grows at your expense www.nytimes.com/2026/07/26/u...
Trump Seems Trapped by Iran War, Even as He Wields the World’s Biggest Hammer
A president who thought there were no limits to his power has discovered several, leaving him more frustrated and erratic.
nytimes.com
You heard it here first, folks open.substack.com/pub/chipsgun...
Michael Pettis@michaelpettis.bsky.social · last wk.SCMP: "Chinese provinces have now released their growth data for the first half of the year, and the figures show a clear bifurcation between thriving tech hubs and the rest of the country." www.scmp.com/economy/chin...
Good piece on the cockroach protests, and why this wave is different newlinesmag.com/argument/the...
The Protests Gripping India — and Rattling Modi
A youth-led movement over exam scandals has become the biggest challenge to the prime minister’s authority in years
newlinesmag.com
And look I get that as a bank or research shop you have to posit a certain line to preserve access and so on. As an institution you probably cant be super bearish on China without retaliation of some kind. But still
Paul Bali@paulbali.com · 2w agoEvery couple of weeks I have to do some chest thumping about how ahead of the curve I was on the fixed investment decline, and what it would mean chipsgunsandmoney.substack.com/p/chinas-eco...
Every couple of weeks I have to do some chest thumping about how ahead of the curve I was on the fixed investment decline, and what it would mean chipsgunsandmoney.substack.com/p/chinas-eco...
China's 2026 Economic Outlook
The most important narratives in China macro for the new year
chipsgunsandmoney.substack.com
This is also why people underestimate the impact of declining land sales. China's financial system is mostly just the state funneling money into designated sectors. And land sales were the load bearing pillar in the system chipsgunsandmoney.substack.com/p/on-the-fix...
On the fixed asset investment collapse in China
Why it might be a sign of a deeper liquidity shock
chipsgunsandmoney.substack.com
Michael Pettis@michaelpettis.bsky.social · 2w agoSCMP notes that China's venture capital and private equity industries are mostly state funded: "Last year, state-affiliated investors supplied more than 90 per cent of the committed capital tracked in China’s private-equity market, a surge from just under 79 per cent in 2021." sc.mp/x64nq?utm_so...
Glad we established deterrence last year and didn’t roll over immediately
FinTwitter@fintwitter.bsky.social · 2w agoTRUMP: WILL INITIATE 301 INVESTIGATION INTO EU FINES ON US FIRMS - TSL
Sadiq Khan says Netanyahu perpetrating genocide and not welcome in London - https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/sadiq-khan-says-netanyahu-perpetrating-genocide-and-not-welcome-london
Sadiq Khan says Netanyahu perpetrating genocide and not welcome in London
London mayor says if Israeli PM visits city then he would lobby UK government to enforce ICC arrest warrant
middleeasteye.net
