🚨 New paper out today! 🚨 Using a conceptual box model for the AMOC, our results show that a geometric early warning signal provides more skill in anticipating tipping in a rapidly forced system than conventional EWS. Read the paper here iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1... @gsiexeter.bsky.social

Evaluating the skill of a geometric early warning for tipping in a rapidly forced nonlinear system

Evaluating the skill of a geometric early warning for tipping in a rapidly forced nonlinear system, Ritchie, Paul D L, Kachhara, Sneha, Ashwin, Peter

iopscience.iop.org

Fascinating new paper by Isobel Parry on the impact of Stratospheric Aerosol Injection (SAI) on the well-being of the Amazon rainforest. GeoMIP6 models show increases in forest carbon relative to both unmitigated climate change and to conventional mitigation.

Stratospheric aerosol injection geoengineering has the potential to increase land carbon storage and to protect the Amazon rainforest

Abstract. Solar radiation modification (SRM) aims to artificially cool the Earth, counteracting warming from anthropogenic greenhouse gases by increasing the reflection of incoming sunlight. One SRM s...

esd.copernicus.org

I wrote this paper to work how the climate-carbon system could enter a runaway state 👇 esd.copernicus.org/articles/16/...

Conditions for instability in the climate–carbon cycle system

Abstract. The climate and carbon cycle interact in multiple ways. An increase in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere warms the climate through the greenhouse effect, but also leads to uptake of CO2 by th...

esd.copernicus.org

Fascinating new paper from Joe Clarke et al., which addresses the question: could the climate-carbon system suffer a self-sustaining runaway feedback? @gsiexeter.bsky.social @ukceh.bsky.social @bolincentre.bsky.social esd.copernicus.org/articles/16/...

Conditions for instability in the climate–carbon cycle system

Abstract. The climate and carbon cycle interact in multiple ways. An increase in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere warms the climate through the greenhouse effect, but also leads to uptake of CO2 by th...

esd.copernicus.org

📢 OUT NOW: Global Tipping Points Report 2025 📢 💡 A new report provides a temperature check on the status of dangerous Earth system #TippingPoints and opportunities in #PositiveTippingPoints across sectors. Read the full report: global-tipping-points.org/resources-gt... #GTPR2025 #COP30

CCSS Tutorial on 'Early warning signals for tipping in complex systems' by dr. Paul Ritchie (paulritchie.bsky.social) coming up next Wed Oct 15 Program: 12-13 Lunch 13-14 Introductory talk 14-14:15 Break / Group formation 14:30-16:30 Group work 16:30-17 Wrap-up Info & ✍️ www.uu.nl/en/events/cc...

Crossing a climate tipping point doesn't mean tipping is inevitable - a threshold can be temporarily passed if overshoot is short-lived. Limiting time over 1.5 °C would considerably reduce tipping point risks. New Ideas paper from @exeter.ac.uk & UKCEH: esd.copernicus.org/articles/16/... 🧪

ESD Ideas: Climate tipping is not instantaneous – the duration of an overshoot matters

Abstract. Climate tipping points are not committed to occur automatically upon crossing critical thresholds in global warming, as is often assumed. Instead, it is possible to temporarily overshoot a t...

esd.copernicus.org

New paper in ESD (esd.copernicus.org/articles/16/...) showing duration of overshoot matters for preventing climate systems from tipping. Crossing a tipping point does not equal tipping. Risk reduced if overshoot duration beyond 1.5 °C kept below a century. @coxypm.bsky.social @gsiexeter.bsky.social

📢 Applications welcome for a fully funded PhD project to work on tipping points @utas.edu.au in Australia! Study "Overshoots in Delay Differential Equations" with Dr Courtney Quinn, Prof Michael Charleston and myself (@gsiexeter.bsky.social). Closing date 1st August www.utas.edu.au/research/deg...

Available projects for research degrees | University of Tasmania - Overshoots in Delay Differential Equations

Recently, it has become clear that carbon emissions are not being redu...

utas.edu.au

🚨 Last chance to submit your abstract for the Global Tipping Points conference - submissions close TOMORROW Wednesday 19 March @pik-potsdam.bsky.social @maxplanck.de

Global Systems Institute@gsiexeter.bsky.social · 2y ago

Showcase your research at the Global Tipping Points conference 2025: 📅4 days 👩‍🏫25 research sessions 🌍3 key themes 🌆2 evening poster sessions Find out more and submit your abstract before Wed 19 March: global-tipping-points.org/conference-2... @pik-potsdam.bsky.social @maxplanck.de

Last week for abstracts! This promises to be an exciting, cross-disciplinary conference with lots of opportunity for discussion on all types of tipping point research

Paul Ritchie@paulritchie.bsky.social · 2y ago

Myself, @ruthchapman.bsky.social and Florian Diekert are covening a session on 'Early Warning Signals for Tipping Points: From Detection to Action' at the Global Tipping Points conference 30th June-3rd July 2025, Exeter. Just 1 week left to submit abstracts global-tipping-points.org/conference-2...

Myself, @ruthchapman.bsky.social and Florian Diekert are covening a session on 'Early Warning Signals for Tipping Points: From Detection to Action' at the Global Tipping Points conference 30th June-3rd July 2025, Exeter. Just 1 week left to submit abstracts global-tipping-points.org/conference-2...

Global Systems Institute@gsiexeter.bsky.social · 2y ago

👉 Only 1 week left to submit abstracts for the research and poster sessions at the Global Tipping Points conference 2025. Submit your abstract here: global-tipping-points.org/conference-2... 📅 Deadline: 19 March

A date for your diaries: 2-4 July, the Exeter Climate Conference "...will present cutting-edge research related to climate change and its impacts, and discuss possible solutions"

Exeter Climate Conference

exeterclimateforum.com

I am convening a session with @paulritchie.bsky.social (University of Exeter) and Florian Diekert (University of Augsburg) on ‘Early Warning Signals for Tipping Points: From Detection to Action’. We welcome all abstract submissions and look forward to an interesting discussion around this topic.

Global Tipping Points Conference 2025 This conference is a ‘call to action’ to the research community, policymakers, and business to raise awareness and understanding of the importance of tipping points and to accelerate the required action. @gsiexeter.bsky.social @exeter.ac.uk #academicsky

It's my first day here on Bluesky, and what an excellent way to start with another paper being published. iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...

Quantifying risk of a noise-induced AMOC collapse from northern and tropical Atlantic Ocean variability - IOPscienceSearch

Quantifying risk of a noise-induced AMOC collapse from northern and tropical Atlantic Ocean variability, R R Chapman, P Ashwin, J Baker, R A Wood

iopscience.iop.org