These have seen better days.

A streaky breaking of local runs of no measurable rainfall over the past 24 hours. Many within the palest blue shading saw no more than a trace amount. Local to me this looks to be the 34th day in a row without measurable rainfall.

One shower-inhibiting factor for CS & SE England today is a brisk westerly wind. This limits surface heating, with showers mostly restricted to wherever higher ground forces near-surface air upward. Another big factor is drier air moving across from the west.

The 0.7 mm total now spans 48 days here. Less than a third of the pre-2026 lowest on record for that timespan. Just 16% of the pre-2018 record lowest. The 1973-2025 average for 18th June to 4th August is 72.0 mm. So the past 48 days has seen less than a hundredth of the usual.

Sunday's potential rainfall for the widely still-waiting CS & SE England is putting up a fight. It requires a weakening disturbance to interact with a decaying weather front at just the right moment, but here we have 3 reputable forecast models saying 'yes'.

So near, yet so far. This just before dawn was the closest pass by measurable rainfall since 2nd July, 33 days ago. An area from Bere Regis to Lyndhurst saw 15-20 minutes of light to moderate rainfall. Normally, this would be entirely unremarkable!

Parched landscape, oppressively humid air without any rain here. The weather has a rather dark sense of humour!

Radar-estimated rainfall totals for the 24 hours to 6 pm BST today. As forecast, little to none across most of CS & SE England, while it was a rainier day further northwest, especially near or beyond a line ~Lancaster-Durham.

Latest run from the UKMO model keeps low pressure further north on Sunday, with dry weather much more widespread than on the overnight run. Aligns with what GFS has been predicting. If ECMWF's new run (due soon) concurs then yet another chance of rain in S UK has been lost.

As with many parts of southern England, 2026 has flatlined since 18th June for rainfall-to-date here. Notice how 1976 doesn't feature here. The severe water shortages that summer were down to a run of mostly drier than usual months reaching all the way back to spring 1975.

Today we have weather fronts over the UK, but over E&W they're heavily decayed. This happens sometimes, especially in summer - fronts mature before arrival & hence rainfall during the passage of the low is largely associated with wind-driven convergence.

As far as CS & SE England goes, Abington to south-eastern Oxford appears to have hit the jackpot with a heavy shower producing the only radar-estimated totals of 1 mm or more. Very locally up to 3 mm may have fallen. Enough to temporarily help out the local flora & fauna.

Added another day in the 30s here yesterday. This summer is well clear of the prior record holder (1976) for up to 3rd August. It's also taken the record for most days at 25 or above. 2018 increasingly faltered as August went on.

Despite the meagre radar readings, I keep looking out the window in case I get to see more than a fine sprinkle of rain falling for the first time since 30th June. So far it seems all is being lost to evaporation on the way down.

Overnight AROME run predicted just a few slight streaks of accumulated rainfall in CS & SE England during the next 48 hours. Activity in southern England is highly concentrated in a zone northern Cornwall to just beyond Bristol. Even there, totals are mostly pretty small.

Such sustained anomalous warmth so far this year, not one stat below average for any month here. A focus on daytime warmth since March, even before the landscape became parched. July's +6.0 for mean daily max temperature is the largest positive anomaly on record for that stat.

So here we are, the week that has long shown the greatest potential to bring drought relief to southern UK &... it's likely to be in the lowest third of climatology there. All that was needed was a further south track to the low pressure system but nope!

ECMWF ensemble-derived probabilities of at least 1 mm in the 24 hours to 7 pm BST each of Tue-Fri. Tomorrow brings the greatest chance away from the far S/SE. Beyond that, much of southern UK is in the 0-5% range.

Local to me, July 2026 wasn't just the sunniest calendar month on record, but also the most anomalously sunny. This is incredible considering July has the highest long-term average at 220.8 hours. That sunny February 2018 was 54.7 hours above the LTA, last month 160.7 hours!

15z UKV shows that on closest approach of the low to southern England on Tuesday, it's so weak that heavy showers are dependent on convergence lines, which don't look favourably aligned for CS/SE England to receive those showers. By Wednesday conditions are more stable in S UK.

July 2026's distribution of daily max temperatures here is more fitting of a small Mediterranean island like Menorca. The daily mins, not so much. The parched landscape & shortage of hot, humid air imports from the south kept most of the nights relatively comfortable.

0.7 mm here in the past 45 days. One & a half months! Nothing close in the historical record. The next two lowest values are also held by 2026. 2018 felt incredibly dry yet has been undercut by 1.5 mm. Probably two more dry days to come before... something. Much? Not sure.

July 2026. Hottest, driest, sunniest calendar month on record here in NE Dorset. Hottest by 1.50°C for mean daily max & by 0.84°C for overall mean (mean daily min 0.05°C short of July 2006). Sunniest by 46.1 hours, driest by 1.4 mm (with just 0.1 mm!). One to remember.

Severely parched. Whenever the grass is regularly walked upon it has largely been reduced to its roots.

Monday has been subtly trending hotter, with the latest UKV suggesting a 36°C peak in the London area. Like with last Wednesday it’s a flash in the pan with mainly mid-high 20s in England the next day.

Interesting dipole structure to the sea surface temperature anomalies around Europe at the moment. An easterly from Scandinavia would feel unusually fresh in the UK but there's little sign of that within the next week or so (nearly happens Mon-Tue but air comes from SE instead).

Bit of a teaser for when I delve into the July stats for my local area... it'll be the third warmest on record month in a row. Also the 6th in a row to be in the warmest 5. That sort of thing simply doesn't happen with a steady long-term climate.

If the GFS 06z run through 12th August was on the mark, some parts of southern UK would be close to 2 months since the last substantial rainfall. It's among the drier scenarios I've seen today, but I'd not rule it out.

It was pot luck with the rainfall yesterday. A few spots may have seen more than 5 mm based on radar estimates, though the highest measurements at official weather stations were 1.6 mm in the SE (Middle Wallop) & 3.4 mm in the SW (Okehampton).

People who’ve lived in the area some 40 years say they’ve never seen the River Avon drop this low at Fordingbridge. I know I haven’t in 30. Yet the Gov UK website reports this as “within the normal range” 🤔