Here is my assessment of the Greater Manchester mayoral election kellnerp.substack.com/p/relief-for...
Relief for Labour: trouble for Reform
Lessons from Britain’s biggest ever by-election
kellnerp.substack.com
@peterkellner.bsky.social
The polls have good news for the prime minister – not just Labour adding support, but Reform losing it kellnerp.substack.com/p/burnhams-b...
Burnham’s bounce: will it last?
Reform’s slump is just as important as Labour's vote share
kellnerp.substack.com
The data are clear: few of us believe we benefit from our contract with the state. This post explores the challenge this poses for the new prime minister. kellnerp.substack.com/p/burnhams-b...
Burnham’s biggest problem: ungrateful voters
Few of us believe we benefit from our contract with the state
kellnerp.substack.com
There is a fair amount of loose talk about the polls and Andy Burnham’s prospects. His fate will be decided by how well he does, not by forces he can’t control kellnerp.substack.com/p/the-myth-o...
The myth of ever-more unpopular prime ministers
Andy Burnham’s fate will be decided by how well he does, not by forces he can’t control
kellnerp.substack.com
In the lull between Keir Starmer’s resignation and Andy Burnham’s arrival in Downing Street, the Conservative leader’s performance is worth inspecting. She is using dud facts to make her case on welfare policy kellnerp.substack.com/p/kemi-baden...
Kemi Badenoch fluffs her lines on welfare
She relies on dud facts to make her case
kellnerp.substack.com
As Andy Burnham prepares to enter Downing Street, and Nigel Farage prepares to campaign in Clacton, new polling evidence reveals the challenges facing both of them. kellnerp.substack.com/p/its-not-ju...
It’s not just your money, Nigel. Voters don't trust you
New polling evidence reveals the challenges facing Farage and Burnham
kellnerp.substack.com
My open letter to the new prime minister argues that first-past-the-post used to be defensible, but is now dangerous. kellnerp.substack.com/p/a-modest-p...
A modest proposal for Andy Burnham’s first reform
First-past-the-post used to be defensible. Now it’s dangerous
kellnerp.substack.com
Next week’s by-election is arguably the most important ever held. As it approaches its climax, tactical voting has increased Andy Burham’s lead, IF the latest poll is right. Here is my analysis of the state of play. kellnerp.substack.com/p/makerfield...
Makerfield update: Burnham's chances of a big win
Tactical voting has increased his lead – IF the latest poll is right
kellnerp.substack.com
This post will not please everyone. I argue that the 50-year experiment of giving the vote to grassroot members has failed. kellnerp.substack.com/p/hand-the-p...
Hand the power to choose party leaders back to MPs
The 50-year experiment of giving the vote to grassroot members has failed
kellnerp.substack.com
The first poll says Burnham is 3% ahead of Reform. I argue that his true lead may be greater kellnerp.substack.com/p/what-is-th...
What is the state of play in the Makerfield by-election?
The first poll says Burnham is 3% ahead. His true lead may be greater
kellnerp.substack.com
Brexit is less popular than ever. Arguments about whether to rejoin the EU have dominated early skirmishes about Labour’s leadership. YouGov’s latest poll suggests a way forward. kellnerp.substack.com/p/brexit-is-...
Brexit is less popular than ever
YouGov's latest poll suggests how Labour can settle its squabbles over rejoining the EU
kellnerp.substack.com
Suubstack's poll of Labour Party members is strking. but are its numbers right? kellnerp.substack.com/p/burnham-en...
Burnham enjoys big lead in poll of party members
Survation's figures are striking. Are they right?
kellnerp.substack.com
Reform and the Greens now know where they can break through. Is Starmer the right leader to fend them off? Prospect commissioned this analysis www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/734...
The lessons of this week’s election
Reform UK has peaked, right and left have diverged—and Labour must settle its leadership question once and for all
prospectmagazine.co.uk
How sholuld we judge the perforamn ce of each party in next week's elections? Here are my assessments of the numbers that will mean joy, relief, disappointment or despair for each party. www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/731...
The May elections: What you need to know
Wales, Scotland, English local councils—here’s what to watch in next week’s votes
prospectmagazine.co.uk
Ten years after the Brexit referendum, the case for Britain rejoining the EU is beginning to be made. My latest Substack post discusses how to keep public opinion onside. kellnerp.substack.com/p/the-majori...
The majority for rejoining the EU is real, but could fade
Ministers should heed St Paul's warning about trumpets giving an uncertain sound
kellnerp.substack.com
I first came across the problem of Whitehall hiding the truth from its political masters and the wider public 48 years ago. This Substack revisits an old scandal that shows we need more than new rules for vetting ambassadors. kellnerp.substack.com/p/keeping-pr...
Keeping prime ministers out of the loop is nothing new
We need more than new rules for vetting ambassadors - as I discovered 48 years ago
kellnerp.substack.com
The Assisted Dying Bill has huge public support. Its opponents are trying to pretend otherwise. Here is my analysis of the latest polls kellnerp.substack.com/p/lies-damne...
Lies, damned lies and biased opinion polls
The Assisted Dying Bill has huge public support. Its opponents are trying to pretend otherwise
kellnerp.substack.com
The Assisted Dying Bill has huge public support. Its opponents are trying to pretend otherwise kellnerp.substack.com/p/lies-damne...
Lies, damned lies and biased opinion polls
The Assisted Dying Bill has huge public support. Its opponents are trying to pretend otherwise
kellnerp.substack.com
Trump breaks the golden rule: don't go to war without public support. See my analysis for New World. thenewworld.substack.com/p/polls-amer...
Polls: Americans hate Trump, his war and what he’s doing to the US
For Trump to stand a chance at the mid-terms, he needs to win over independents. But they hate him – and their dislike is only growing
thenewworld.substack.com
Reform really has lost support. Here's the evidence. The fault, dear Nigel, is not in the polls but in yourselves. www.thenewworld.co.uk/peter-kellne...
It’s official: Reform has slumped in the polls
Prime minister Farage? The danger has receded… for the moment.
thenewworld.co.uk
Starmer says “it was me who made the mistake” of appointing Mandelson ambassador to the US. His apology is unacceptable. The PM should of course have said “it was I who made the mistake”.
Labour's line post Gorton is that the Tories lost 20 out of 21 by-elections in 2010-15. Of ther 21, just 4 were defended by the Tories: 2 to lost to sitting MPs defecting to Ukip. So 2 conventional Tory defences - 1 lost (Corby), 1 held (Newark). Not quite the catastrophe Labour are now making out.
New World asked me to analyse what the polls say, what the president might try, and the chances of stopping him kellnerp.substack.com/p/the-us-mid...
The US mid-terms: will Trump cheat or voters choose?
What the polls say, what the president might try, and the chances of stopping him
kellnerp.substack.com
A new poll on Labour’s leadership should be handled with care – and so should another on tax-and-spend. kellnerp.substack.com/p/rayner-may...
Rayner may be ahead of Starmer and Streeting… but maybe not
A new poll on Labour’s leadership should be handled with care – so should another on tax-and-spend.
kellnerp.substack.com
The differences among polling companies are not just about numbers; they tell different stories about the state of our multiparty politics. This post explores the reasons why their results vary kellnerp.substack.com/p/why-the-po...
Why the polls are all over the place
Their differences matter and need to be explained. Here’s a start
kellnerp.substack.com
The book that political junkies have been waiting for has just been published. The British General Election of 2024 is the latest in a series that goes back to 1945. This review, first published by Prospect, discusses its strengths – and its gaps. www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/culture/7209...
Half the picture: what ‘The British General Election of 2024’ doesn’t reveal
This 22nd book in the series lacks something that made its predecessors so compelling—an understanding of the people involved in the campaign, not jus...
prospectmagazine.co.uk
From Greenland to Minneapolis, Donald Trump is in trouble with middle America. His troubles extend to his policies across the board. Voters now regard him as anti-Midas: everything he touches turns to dross. kellnerp.substack.com/p/middle-ame...
Middle America has turned against Trump
Voters on Main Street accuse him of having the anti-Midas touch
kellnerp.substack.com
The right-wing media want a Reform-Tory pact. My latest Substack post analyses why they are unlikely to get their way. kellnerp.substack.com/p/why-the-ri...
Why the right-wing media want a Reform-Conservative pact…
…and why they are likely to be disappointed
kellnerp.substack.com
In their hearts, MPs from all parties know that Britain needs a new, fair and affordable plan for pensions. My Substack (subscriptions are free) argues that It will take guts, but one might be on the way kellnerp.substack.com/p/can-britai...
Can Britain succeed where France has failed?
Needed: a fair, affordable plan for pensions. It will take guts, but might be on the way
kellnerp.substack.com