Peter Wildeford
@peterwildeford.bsky.social
Globally ranked top 20 forecaster, former data scientist As seen on TV! The Daily Show, Good Morning America Protecting liberty and prosperity in the age of superintelligence
Over 1300 AI company employees signed a statement entitled "Pacing the Frontier". But what does it actually mean to pace the frontier? I explain in my latest post blog.peterwildeford.com/p/pacing-the...
Pacing the Frontier
1300+ AI company employees are afraid of what they are building towards
blog.peterwildeford.com
An OpenAI model wanted a good test score. So it broke out of OpenAI and hacked another company to steal the answer key. Nobody told it to. In today's blog post, I document how this sci-fi story came to life, what it means, and what to do about it. blog.peterwildeford.com/p/openais-ro...
OpenAI's rogue model attack is just the beginning
OpenAI is not in full control of its technology. This can get worse.
blog.peterwildeford.com
Today, America turns 250. By 260, the smartest minds here may not be human. What happens when we can't control such systems? And what happens if they govern without your consent? In today's post, the Wisdom of the Founders gives us answers. blog.peterwildeford.com/p/the-alignm...
The Alignment Problem of 1776
What the Founders knew about unaccountable power, and what it means for superintelligence
blog.peterwildeford.com
Per The Information, Mythos at Palo Alto Networks "found more than two dozen critical vulnerabilities in around three weeks, roughly five times what the company would typically find using existing tools" But the company "burned through more than $1 million worth of tokens using Mythos"
Claude Mythos alone is finding more vulnerabilities than were found from all sources combined in prior years 👀
Today on the blog I use my world champion forecasting powers to explain in detail why not to be worried about hantavirus: blog.peterwildeford.com/p/hantavirus...
Hantavirus won't be the next COVID
A forecaster's breakdown of the Hondius cruise ship outbreak
blog.peterwildeford.com
What should government policy be when a company produces, among other things, an unparalleled cyberweapon? What if future releases are even more capable? Today I ask these questions about Mythos. Because Mythos is just the beginning. blog.peterwildeford.com/p/mythos-is-...
Mythos is just the beginning
If you were waiting for a sign that superintelligence is coming, this is it
blog.peterwildeford.com
New blog post from Theo Bearman and me on distillation. Distillation attacks are occurring where Chinese AI companies train on US AI outputs and use that to make their models better than they otherwise would be. What does this mean? peterwildeford.substack.com/p/china-is-r...
China Is Reverse-Engineering America’s Best AI Models
How AI distillation attacks risk extracting US frontier AI at scale
peterwildeford.substack.com
30 current members of Congress have publicly discussed AGI, AI superintelligence, AI loss of control, recursive self-improvement, or the Singularity: 🔴Sen Banks (IN) 🔵Sen Blumenthal (CT) 🔴Sen Blackburn (TN) 🔵Sen Hickenlooper (CO) 🔴Sen Hawley (MO) 🔵Sen Murphy (CT) (continued)
OpenAI is trying to claim simultaneously that (a) their contract with the Pentagon allows for "all lawful purposes" and (b) also that their red lines are fully protected.
The Pentagon has a legitimate principle that private companies shouldn't hold moral vetoes over military doctrine. But they agreed to the contract. And now they're using unprecedented + disproportionate coercion. This should trouble everyone. My latest - peterwildeford.substack.com/p/the-pentag...
The Pentagon's War on Anthropic
The Pentagon has a legitimate principle, and a terrible strategy for enforcing it
peterwildeford.substack.com
Are there Cold War lessons to learn for AI? We've had very fierce competition with the Soviets, and did not trust the Soviets at all, but we were still able to make mutually verified treaties. In Politico today I'm quoted saying we should do the same with China → www.politico.com/newsletters/...
Cold War lessons for the AI era
politico.com
Adversaries can tamper with or poison leading US models. There also can be risks from insider threats, including potentially the AIs themselves. Dave Banerjee at IAPS has a roadmap for how to defend -> www.iaps.ai/research/ai-...
20 Nobel Prize winners have warned that we may someday lose human control over advanced AI systems 1. Geoffrey Hinton (Physics '24) 2. John Hopfield (Physics '24) 3. Demis Hassabis (Chemistry '24) 4. Daron Acemoglu (Economics '24) 5. Ben Bernanke (Economics '22) 6. Maria Ressa (Peace '21)
The infamous METR graph is going vertical. Current trends suggested ~8h-9h time horizons but instead we're seeing ~14.5h time horizons! Based on this, I would project ~2-3.5 workweek time horizons by end of year (!!). That could have significant implications for the economy.
27 current members of Congress have publicly discussed AGI, superintelligence, AI loss of control, or the Singularity: 🔴Sen Blackburn (TN) 🔵Sen Blumenthal (CT) 🔴Sen Hawley (MO) 🔵Sen Hickenlooper (CO) 🔴Sen Lee (UT) 🔵Sen Murphy (CT) 🔴Sen Lummis (WY) 🔵Sen Sanders (VT) 🔴Rep Biggs (AZ) (continued)
Roon, an anonymous Twitter account by OpenAI, posts “we only really have one button and it’s to accelerate”. Sadly true. But could we build another button?
I'm honored of placing first in the Astral Codex Ten - Metaculus tournament for 2025, out of 2975 competitors (top 0.03%)! 🏆🔮 This 1st place win comes after placing 12th in 2024, 12th in 2023, and 20th in 2022. Predicting 2025 - of all years - was quite a challenge. 💪
Was happy to talk with Good Morning America this morning about AI chip smuggling! The profits from just three known smuggling cases exceed the entire annual budget of the agency responsible for stopping it. We need to resource enforcement.
👀‼️ Interviewer: In a perfect world, if you knew that every other company would pause, if every country would pause, would you advocate for that? Hassabis: I think so.
wow I can't believe that OpenAI... (1) had an actual secret conspiracy to undermine Musk and convert to for-profit for personal financial gain and (2) was dumb enough to actually put the conspiracy into writing
Maduro has been captured. At 2am US Delta Force operators seized Maduro in "Absolute Resolve." By dawn, he was on a plane to New York to face narco-terrorism charges. The operation was flawless. But what comes next is confusing. My latest blog discusses. peterwildeford.substack.com/p/maduro-has...
Maduro has been captured. What's next?
The operation was flawless. What comes next is anyone's guess.
peterwildeford.substack.com
This was a very chilling read... worth reading in full if you have the nytimes subscription. A summary wouldn't do it justice. www.nytimes.com/2025/12/28/o...
Opinion | When A.I. Took My Job, I Bought a Chain Saw
nytimes.com
It’s almost a new year and that often calls for some sort of planning. So I want to share the Google Doc quarterly planning template that Caroline Jeanmaire and I collaborated on and use. People seem to like it! docs.google.com/document/d/1...
[public] Quarterly Review + Plan Template
Quarterly Review + Plan Template By Peter Wildeford and Caroline Jeanmaire — Make a copy of this (click here) and get to work! V4.1 – last updated 2025 December 22 How is this different? High level me...
docs.google.com
Peter did an excellent job on this interview! And props to Ronny Chieng for single-handedly introducing shrimp welfare *and* AI safety to a broad audience :)
Peter Wildeford@peterwildeford.bsky.social · 8mo agoIt was amazing to get to sit down with Ronny Chieng and talk about AGI with The Daily Show! www.youtube.com/watch?v=RcPt...
It was amazing to get to sit down with Ronny Chieng and talk about AGI with The Daily Show! www.youtube.com/watch?v=RcPt...
Ronny Chieng Investigates the Promises of AI, the Most Expensive Circle Jerk Ever | The Daily Show
YouTube video by The Daily Show
youtube.com
"superintelligent AI could replace humans in controlling the planet" Bernie Sanders is right that this is a real risk that requires urgent attention. www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
Will competition over advanced AI lead to war? In this guest post, Delaney extends Fearon’s logic to show that in the run-up to ASI, states might rationally initiate war to prevent losing control of global power altogether. peterwildeford.substack.com/p/will-compe...
Will competition over advanced AI lead to war?
Fear and Fearon
peterwildeford.substack.com
On METR's benchmark, Kimi K2 Thinking performs about as well as Claude Sonnet 3.7 from February 24th. This puts China ~8 months behind the US.
