Phillips OBrien
@phillipspobrien.bsky.social
Professor of Strategic Studies, Author, Lover of Sicily. Purveyor of a “righteous-but-rational vibe”
The USA has helped maneuver Ukraine into this position, where the Russians will murder masses of Ukrainian civilians. Thanks to America! www.reuters.com/business/aer...
EXCLUSIVE: North Korean missile unit deploys in Russia for Ukraine war, Kyiv says
The missile unit could be equipped with 120 ballistic missiles and six launchers.
reuters.com
All you Trump backers who lie about supporting Ukraine…this is what you actually support. These Ukrainians are being killed partly through the policy choices of the Trump administration. The USA could have saved many of these lives but chose not to. www.cnn.com/2026/08/05/e...
Russian attack kills 17 in Kyiv region, Zelensky says | CNN
Russian strikes on Ukraine’s capital and nearby areas have killed 17 people and wounded dozens of others overnight, officials said, as both sides step up attacks on facilities that underpin daily life...
cnn.com
Hi all, I had the pleasure of doing a Substack live with @frhoffmann.bsky.social last night. A deep dive into the Ukraine-Russia missile war and where ranged warfare is heading globally. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...
Live with Phillips P. OBrien and Fabian Hoffmann
A recording from Phillips P. OBrien's live video
open.substack.com
Man, if Putin had told Trump exactly what he wanted the US to do to help Iran and Russia and hurt Ukraine, it would have been exactly what Trump did in his war. This is a Russian strategic dream we are watching.
Donald Trump stands out historically in one way. He has demilitarized the US military more quickly than any other political leader in US history. A full blown pacifist would have struggled to throw away weapons faster than he has.
That’s a heck of a lot of advanced weaponry to use up while losing a war in record time…. www.reuters.com/world/us-has...
EXCLUSIVE: US has used 'virtually all' of its long-range precision missiles during Iran war, sources say
The U.S. Army has used up much of its stockpile of highly accurate long-range missiles during its five-month war with Iran, according to three people familiar with the data, raising concerns about the...
reuters.com
Phillips OBrien@phillipspobrien.bsky.social · yesterdayLatest piece: people often overlook one of the fundamental questions of war. How do you fund it. The Trump administration is actually facing real problems in each area (historically in one). Even if they wanted to escalate, they might not get the money for it. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...
Latest piece: people often overlook one of the fundamental questions of war. How do you fund it. The Trump administration is actually facing real problems in each area (historically in one). Even if they wanted to escalate, they might not get the money for it. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...
Do Not Forget That Wars Demand Money
I Doubt The US Can Afford To Escalate And Fight A Long War, Even If It Wanted To
open.substack.com
Btw, just in case you had any illusions left that Trump’s promise of a license for Ukraine to was genuine, the US NATO ambassador just said nothing can happen until winter at the earliest. It was all a cruel joke to weaken Ukraine by the USA. www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/202...
US ambassador to NATO believes agreement on joint production of interceptors for Patriot systems is unlikely before winter
US Ambassador to NATO Matthew Whitaker has said that talks on the joint production of interceptors for Patriot air defence systems with Ukraine and European partners are ongoing, but that an agreement...
pravda.com.ua
Latest in @theatlantic.com . Recent developments not only show we are experiencing an RMA, we should be witnessing a revolution in how states organise their defense. Relying on others, especially for production and adaptation, is a dangerous game. www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/0...
The U.S. Isn’t Making Enough Weapons
Allies that depend on U.S. military equipment need a Plan B.
theatlantic.com
They are fighting fantasy wars in their heads and all the while they are losing badly to a country without a Navy and and Air Force.
The USA is at the same time a nuclear armed superpower, and one of the most ridiculous states in the history of the world.
The idea that the Russia-Ukraine War and the US-Iran War are merging into one global conflict is perplexing. The US is siding with Russia even as Russians help Iranians kill American soldiers. So the new global war would have to involve the USA helping others kill Americans.
"Russia, with the help of the USA, can now attack Ukraine with ballistic missiles and the Ukrainians are practically defenseless to stop them once they are launched"
Phillips OBrien@phillipspobrien.bsky.social · 3d agoFree weeked update is out. The big story this week was once again people had hope in Trump and once again that hope was delusional and served Putin's interest. The toll for this misplaced hope is being written in blood. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...
OBrien on the folly of gambling on Rusamerican help 🎯👇 "Maybe it was desperation, maybe it was strategic miscalculation, maybe it was just human optimism, but once again the Ukrainian government was basing its strategic future (or at least one of them) on the hope of getting support from the USA."
Phillips OBrien@phillipspobrien.bsky.social · 3d agoFree weeked update is out. The big story this week was once again people had hope in Trump and once again that hope was delusional and served Putin's interest. The toll for this misplaced hope is being written in blood. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...
Free weeked update is out. The big story this week was once again people had hope in Trump and once again that hope was delusional and served Putin's interest. The toll for this misplaced hope is being written in blood. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...
Weekend Update #196: The Week When Hope Killed, Literally
Drapatyi and Fedorov update; Ports/Shipping Update
open.substack.com
Latest piece is out. Reports from the last few days indicate that China is about to send advanced, finished munitions to Iran--of the type that could chaos for any US escalation. However, Trump pretends otherwise. China might be going in for the kill--with US help. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...
Is China Going In For The Kill?
Trump Has Left The US More Vulnerable Than It Has Been Since 1861
open.substack.com
Just a reminder that since Laura Loomer announced her support for Ukraine, Trump has: 1) walked back a promise to let Ukraine build Patriots, 2) denied a ukrainian request for 300 PAC3s, 3) slow walked 400mil in congressionally approved aid for Ukraine. But the vibes were good!
Q: You said you're not sure whether to grant Ukraine the patriot missiles. Do you want to see more from Zelenskyy? TRUMP: It's a big step. We have to be very careful about letting somebody build them. We haven't agreed to that. They could turn on you.
So the USA is going to institute a land blockade against Iran? I am personally so excited to see US ground forces go back into Afghanistan--let alone see them try and start patrolling in Pakistan and Turkmenistan. The US is so screwed it is now writing science fiction.
If you cannot accept that what Trump has done over the last year and a half is starve Ukraine of air defense, and put off any new aid for as long as possible, so Putin can terrorize Ukraine from the air for as long as possible--you cannot accept reality.
Fool me once- shame on you. Fool me twice- shame on me.
Phillips OBrien@phillipspobrien.bsky.social · 5d agoWait--I thought it was guaranteed that the US would allow Ukraine to build Patriot interceptors. Everyone told me Trump was pivoting to Ukraine and Laura Loomer was onside. newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/trump-q...
Wait--I thought it was guaranteed that the US would allow Ukraine to build Patriot interceptors. Everyone told me Trump was pivoting to Ukraine and Laura Loomer was onside. newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/trump-q...
Donald Trump questions plan to let Ukraine produce Patriot missiles - FT
Read more
newsukraine.rbc.ua
I'm wondering if Gianni Infantino took strategy lessons from Donald Trump's brilliant plan for the Iran War?
If Trump wanted to help Ukraine, he could right now. He could send weapons such as Patriot interceptors, he could sanction Russian companies and those who do business with them--immediately. There is nothing stopping him except for the fact that he doesnt want to. Why is that?
It is tragic watching Ukraine backers getting completely played by Loomer and Trump. She will say whatever she needs to to get paid while he laughs and gives Ukraine nothing of value and continues to help Putin. Nothing has materially changed in the last weeks--nothing.
Latest Midweek Update is out. Iran toyed with the USA this week. Trump continues to want out of the war, but Iran escalated. Their strategy seems pretty sophisticated and the end result is looking even worse for the USA. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...
Midweek Update #21: Iran Is Toying With The USA
Plus: Iranian Strategy; How Does This End?
open.substack.com
China has the US on the ropes in Iran and is going in for the kill. www.reuters.com/world/china/...
EXCLUSIVE: Iran to get Chinese shoulder-launched missile systems in weeks, sources say
Iran is expected to receive within weeks a first shipment out of up to 400 Chinese-made air-defence missile launchers.
reuters.com
What the world is learning is that the US now lacks the capability to fight for any other state, and probably will so for many years until it retools its industry and creates a new defense plan. That will never happen while these corrupt clowns run things, so will take a while.