My new hobby: asking Gemini "who would win" questions.

👀

Kelton Halbert@stormscale.io · 6d ago

A little sneak peek at my talk. I am also not exaggerating when I say some significant firsts are going to occur this fall. I’m excited this is finally happening.

That was a *special* set of 7 overnight outlook shifts. Nothing like setting yourself up for the atmosphere to make you look like a fool. And the best part is, we save it for everyone else to go back and re-read it!

Thick smoke impacts other weather phenomena, too. Thick smoke reduces incoming solar radiation, which keeps temperatures lower than they otherwise would achieve. This in turn reduces the atmospheric buoyancy (all things equal), which impacts storm development, intensity, and longevity.

@cira-csu.bsky.social · 3w ago

Thick smoke from Canadian wildfires descends across the U.S. East Coast.

Beautiful lightening display kept me company on my drive home after my shift this morning! It was on fire!

@wxfront.bsky.social Is there an outage or issue with the MRMS feeds? It has not worked for me since sometime yesterday.

Our Hope has been shaken …

Dave Snider 🌞@davesnider.bsky.social · last mo.

4.4 in hope

The SCN was not approved …

daryl herzmann@akrherz.bsky.social · 2mo ago

Sad that Moose Warnings are **still** zone based and not moose based polygons.

Almost 10 minutes with 100mph gusts and about 30 minutes of severe gusts (more than 58mph).

JimmyC@jimmyc42.bsky.social · 2mo ago

Salina be rocking, hat tip @pmarshwx.com

First and foremost … CONGRATULATIONS!!!! I HAD NO IDEA YOU TWO WERE DATING!!!! Secondly … we need to have a conversation about keeping things from your boss! 😉 Thirdly … This better not impede development on Heimdall or I’m sending you back to indoctrination camp! Fourthly ... Can I officiate?!?

Kelton Halbert@stormscale.io · 2mo ago

Today, I hit a pretty big life moment and got engaged to my best friend and favorite person in the world. Got so nervous that I accidentally placed myself behind the railing. Oh well 🙃😂. Celebrated with a lovely picnic in Central Park!

For clarity: SPC does not run any numerical model. We use the official models run by NOAA. What Kelton is saying is that SPC will choose which members of the REFS and potentially other available CAMs to form our own “ensemble” for SPC post processed guidance and ensemble probability calculations.

Kelton Halbert@stormscale.io · 3mo ago

SPC will be running its own config of the REFS once HREF retires (SPC REFS). It incorporates the HRRR since it’ll still be around, and removes members that have undesirable convective characteristics due to their convective schemes. It stops some of the bleeding, but it’s going to be a big change.

With proceeds going to various disaster relief funds!

Jeremy Gibbs@gibbs.science · 3mo ago

Hear me out — NWS/SPC makes a plushie tornado named Toren, with similar changes in expression based on threat level. cc/ @stormscale.io @pmarshwx.com @wxliz.bsky.social

Take the wrong lesson from a movie: Twister Storm chasing with your fiancé will help you rekindle your passion for your wife.

☈H^2@goaskascientist.bsky.social · 4mo ago

Take the wrong lesson from a movie: Stand By Me Goofy can't be a dog....He wears a hat and drives a car.

Air travel is so predictable these days … You travel 10 miles or nearly 700,000 miles only to arrive at your destination on time and still have to wait an hour for a gate to open so you can exit the aircraft …

Even NASA falls victim to cell phone dead spots ….

a man talking on a cell phone with the words " can you hear me now " on the bottom

ALT: a man talking on a cell phone with the words " can you hear me now " on the bottom

media.tenor.com

Call it a hunch, but I don’t think this package is being delivered this morning …

This is amazing …

Kevin Manross@kmanwx.bsky.social · 4mo ago

As a Simpsons fan, this made my day. m.youtube.com/watch?v=83US... At the 3:26 mark he does a Hurricane Florence quote as Dr. Nick Riviera. 🤌

I don’t know if I now own the original or a replica, but I now proudly displace this infamous forecast in my office!!! Thank you, Daryl (and son)!!!!!

daryl herzmann@akrherz.bsky.social · 5mo ago

My son got a 3D Printer 15 months ago and I thought "worthless toy". Then my son makes a lithopane of the H-Triple-R for May 20th and now tears are in my eyes.

I am known for holding “CAPE Release” … uh … discussions at SPC. Much better to bleed of the CAPE in a controlled, little-at-a-time venting sessions than to let it boil up and break through a thermonuclear cap!

MSJ | Student | DFW@wxandpi.bsky.social · 5mo ago

Cap or no cap? (I'm sorry)

For completeness, I am not mad, upset, or hold any ill will toward the author of the now deleted post. As I posted last week, I have said far worse about far better people than this. I bet most reading this have all said something that was regretted or poorly phrased. I am a stable genius though 🤪

Patrick Marsh@pmarshwx.com · 5mo ago

It’s me! 👋🏻 I’m the genius mentioned below responsible for implementation. Did I achieve “stable genius” status?!?!

It’s me! 👋🏻 I’m the genius mentioned below responsible for implementation. Did I achieve “stable genius” status?!?!

It was not very long ago we were getting bashed for not talking up an event enough. The take away: unless SPC is perfect, we will be bashed by someone. Comes with the territory. I am good with this because it means people are listening. If people said nothing, that would be worse.

Brian Matilla@bxmatilla.bsky.social · 5mo ago

It’s a bit demoralizing to see SPC get bashed as much as they are for how today’s event isn’t living up to the so-called hype. Are there failure modes which have led to the lack of widespread severe? 100% yes. It will never be a perfect science, but this means there’s that much more to learn.

I have publicly criticized my fair share of the weather enterprise as I tried to make a name for myself, especially when I was younger. I wish I knew then what I know now. And this not-so-vague vague thread is not directed at any one person or entity. But rather a reflection come full circle.

Today is SPC's first explicit forecast of significant tornadoes possible (CIG1) in a tornado probability less than 10%. Based on radar data and environment a significant tornado may have occurred in parts of that forecast area. SPC could not have explicitly forecast this kind of scenario previously.

I'm sorry to inform everyone this way, but I just found out from Gemini.

Here is a fun hazing ritual … err … challenge … Write coherent meteorological discussions, for multiple days, in the middle of the night. Then do it several more nights in a row. For me it has been convective outlooks for Days 2, 3, and 4-8. Finding my words gets harder each subsequent night!