Introducing the Poll Bludger's Victorian election guide and seats projection model. Current reading: L-NP 45, ALP 25, ON 15, GRN 3. pollbludger.net/2026/09/29/v...

All over now in Secret Harbour -- 13,000+ votes added from Secret Harbour Early Polling Place (around half the total count) are even stronger for One Nation that those counted earlier. www.pollbludger.net/2026/08/29/s...

Secret Harbour by-election live - The Poll Bludger

Live results and commentary from Western Australia's Secret Harbour state by-election.

pollbludger.net

I had access to old Labor party scrutineer stuff when I was doing things in Qld, and historically, it wasn't irregular that in seats where One Nation got the highest first preference, they also got the highest last preference. That carried across through time, and seems kind of apt elsewhere now.

After Farrer, this is the second by-election where I've been surprised by One Nation's weak preference flow: grist for the theory that the remaining Lib voters are moderates. Also (very likely) the second by-election where it ultimately didn't matter.

Possum@pollytics.bsky.social · 2mo ago

I was chuckling the other day about how long until the weird One Nation for and against would start breaking models. Thought we'd have to wait for the Vic election - but here we are already eh? 🤣

A bit of a wrinkle here: the first TCP results show preferences flowing surprisingly heavily to Labor. My system is still calling it for One Nation, but I'm no longer sure that it should be.

William Bowe@pollbludger.bsky.social · 2mo ago

Looking good for One Nation in Secret Harbour. My results system is calling it for them, and it's doing so on the basis of a more modest projection than the ABC's (7.7% margin rather than 10.5%). www.pollbludger.net/2026/08/29/s...

Looking good for One Nation in Secret Harbour. My results system is calling it for them, and it's doing so on the basis of a more modest projection than the ABC's (7.7% margin rather than 10.5%). www.pollbludger.net/2026/08/29/s...

First result from Secret Harbour is a batch of 1277 postals. It's more than consistent with a One Nation win, though Labor can hope on the tendency of early batches of postals to lean conservative. Full coverage: www.pollbludger.net/2026/08/29/s...

Secret Harbour by-election live - The Poll Bludger

Live results and commentary from Western Australia's Secret Harbour state by-election.

pollbludger.net

Labor look like they've scraped home in the Stafford by-election, but my system isn't quite calling it yet. They lead by 768 at the end of the night, which I expect late-arriving postals will cut by about half. www.pollbludger.net/2026/05/16/s...

After a bad result for Labor in the Chermside South booth (with 9.1% now counted, still nothing on TCP): pollbludger.net/qld2026by1/R...

William Bowe@pollbludger.bsky.social · 6mo ago

Queensland's Stafford by-election so far living up to expectations of a tight result in seat Labor holds by 5.3%. My system is generously still allowing the chance of a GRN win. Primary votes only so far, with 3.6% counted out of expected turnout of 80%. pollbludger.net/2026/05/16/s...

Queensland's Stafford by-election so far living up to expectations of a tight result in seat Labor holds by 5.3%. My system is generously still allowing the chance of a GRN win. Primary votes only so far, with 3.6% counted out of expected turnout of 80%. pollbludger.net/2026/05/16/s...

My results system is calling Nepean a LIB RETAIN. Quite a few of the best areas for One Nation are still outstanding, but even so, they're running well behind the second-placed independent. www.pollbludger.net/2026/05/02/n...

As predicted, the Liberals capitulated in the South Australian election. But as election analyst @pollbludger.bsky.social writes, One Nation's strong showing offers a warning to Labor as well. www.crikey.com.au/2026/03/23/s...

One Nation's strength in SA leaves Liberals floundering. It should spook Labor, too

Rival Liberal factions are already offering wildly contradictory prognoses as to what went on in South Australia. But the strength of Pauline Hanson's party in working-class suburbs also offers a…

crikey.com.au

The Liberals have made a late rally in Morphett after doing quite a lot better at the electorate's early voting centre than they did on election day. Now lineball. pollbludger.net/sa2026/Resul...

Not I know it seems to be working, a plug for the Poll Bludger's South Australian election live results system: www.pollbludger.net/sa2026/Resul...

Exactly that: I estimate the primaries at ALP 42.7% (-2.7%), LNP 39.6% (+1.6%), GRN 13.0% (+1.4%). Would no doubt have had the effect you assumed in earlier times.

Lucas@lucasdstewart.bsky.social · 8mo ago

Looking at the maps before reading this, I'd have thought Mt Ommaney might have got a lot worse for Labor, losing Darra to Inala and gaining the tree lined streets of the Chelmer peninsula from Miller. Perhaps a few green-tinged votes in that area balance it out?

Big losers: mooted future ALP leader Meaghan Scanlon, whose seat of Gaven becomes borderline unwinnable, and Katter's Australian Party, which stands to lose one of the two seats left to it after its Hinchinbrook by-election defeat

William Bowe@pollbludger.bsky.social · 8mo ago

Estimated new margins from today's Queensland state redistribution proposal: www.pollbludger.net/2026/03/10/q...

Estimated new margins from today's Queensland state redistribution proposal: www.pollbludger.net/2026/03/10/q...

Queensland state redistribution proposal - The Poll Bludger

A Queensland state adds two seats to outer Brisbane and abolishes a seat in North Queensland.

pollbludger.net

Queensland state redistribution proposal www.pollbludger.net/2026/03/10/q...

Queensland state redistribution proposal - The Poll Bludger

A Queensland state adds two seats to outer Brisbane and abolishes a seat in North Queensland.

pollbludger.net

After strong pre-poll results for the LNP, my system is now calling the Hinchinbrook by-election www.pollbludger.net/2025/11/29/h...

Hinchinbrook by-election live - The Poll Bludger

Live results and commentary from the Queensland state by-election for Hinchinbrook.

pollbludger.net

The race is tightening in Hinchinbrook as larger centres come in, the early rural booths having swung massively against KAP. LNP still favoured, but a different dynamic on pre-polls could change things. www.pollbludger.net/2025/11/29/h...

Katter's have a vague hope in the Hinchinbrook by-election stemming from the fact that the swing against is weaker at the Townsville end than in the rural booths that have mostly reported so far. www.pollbludger.net/2025/11/29/h...

The Katter's vote has fallen by more than half across six rural booths in the Hinchinbrook by-election, leaving the LNP well placed to gain the seat. I'm projecting a One Nation vote of 15.4%, compared with 4.6%, which they would need to improve on to get in contention.

Newspoll: 58-42 to Labor. ALP 36% (steady), L-NP 24% (steady), GRN 13% (up two) and ON 15% (steady). www.pollbludger.net/2025/11/23/n...

Newspoll: 58-42 to Labor (open thread) - The Poll Bludger

Labor's two-party lead back out to its equal widest since the election, though Sussan Ley remains favoured to lead the Liberal Party.

pollbludger.net

I'm now calling #kiamavotes for Labor www.pollbludger.net/2025/09/13/k...

Not calling it yet, but with three booths in on the primary vote, the Liberals look well short of where they need to be in #kiamavotes pollbludger.net/2025/09/13/k...

Tasmanian voters have been treated to a state election result that pleased no one and resolved nothing, @pollbludger.bsky.social writes.

Tasmanian Labor just bought itself an extra year in opposition

crikey.com.au

Now it's Labor's turn to "wait for the pre-polls to come in" #tasvotes

Eric Abetz on the ABC wishes he has 2024 figures for comparison from Irishtown. Right here, Eric. Swings shown below compared with that booth from last time. #tasvotes

William Bowe@pollbludger.bsky.social · last yr.

First booths are in for #tasvotes and the big news is that my live results system seems to be working. Huge result for the Liberals in Irishtown, FWIW (not much). Follow the action here: www.pollbludger.net/tas2025/Resu...

First booths are in for #tasvotes and the big news is that my live results system seems to be working. Huge result for the Liberals in Irishtown, FWIW (not much). Follow the action here: www.pollbludger.net/tas2025/Resu...

You appear to be asking for the dataset, which you're never going to get, but the question of who's paying for it (nobody, in this case) is answered in the methodology statement d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/Yo...

Dr Annetta Mallon PhD@gdepau.bsky.social · last yr.

I want to know who is being polled (income, postcode, etc.) and who pays for this polling before giving much credence. No one we talk to here in the central north has participated in any polling - last election our house had been contacted 4 or 5 times for polling purposes. #research #politas