Lukas Dufka

@poorlyevolved.bsky.social

Let's hope that Zelensky will again prove amenable to public pressure. He's done it in the case of Yermak, kicking and screaming though he was, and given enough outcry over Fedorov, we might at last see the end of Syrskiy, too.

We may be entering a feedback loop that inevitably deepens every crisis in an autocratic system. As things get worse, it becomes less palatable to report facts up the chain of command, in turn making a bad situation deteriorate faster, until it unravels completely.

Russia-Ukraine war: Crimea's Sevastopol without power after Ukraine strikes

Sevastopol's Moscow-installed governor warns there will be no electricity in some areas until the evening.

bbc.com

As the scale of the UA mid-range campaign against the critical logistics infrastructure in the south increases, it’s looking less like its goal is to just interdict the Russian supply lines, and more like a battlefield shaping effort. Mark your calendar. September could be interesting this year.

The relatively good thing about the absolutely terrible Iran deal is that Trump presumably signed it with the full intention of not sticking to it. Unfortunately, this won't be as easy as when he used to stiff his creditors. A president of a country can only operate like a grifter for so long.

2014: Crimea was the weakest spot of the weakened Ukraine. 2026: Crimea is quickly becoming an Achilles heel for the Russian war effort. A mass exodus from Crimea will not only cause chaos in the Russian rear, it will damage the morale of frontline troops (already low) and make Putin look weak.

Imagine if Steve Job's name was included with every mention of the iPhone. As in, "Steve Job's iPhone". That's how weird it is when people insist on endlessly saying "Elon Musk's Starlink" or "Elon Musk's SpaceX". Yes, I know who the CEO/owner of these companies is. Can we stop glorifying him?

There probably are some lessons to be learned by democrats around the world about defeating autocrats from Hungary’s Tisza victory over Orbán. But what we have really learned was how to defeat Viktor Orbán in Hungary in 2026. We haven’t suddenly obtained a template for defeating all autocrats.

Let’s hope that Magyar isn’t going to pull a Biden, being lenient on a clearly criminal regime and hoping that good governance alone is going to convince people who are living in a fact-free reality.

Trump’s claim of a successful regime change may eventually turn out correct. But it’s a bit like washing your car by drowning it in the river. A moribund theocracy led by a frail octogenarian has been transformed into a junta of hardline generals who prefer martyrdom to defeat.

If you elect a laughing stock as your president, your country will become a laughing stock also. It happens more quickly if you’re a Moldova or a Kyrgyzstan, because nobody owes you respect. But even the world’s dominant superpower eventually succumbs. We’re all witnessing that moment now.