ProfColinBean

@profcolinbean.bsky.social

Freshwater fish biologist - big on rare species, their ecology and conservation. Also known to dabble in non-native species issues. Personal account and all views are entirely my own. Leantóir Celtic FC 🍀

The Arctic Circle just reached a temperature that once seemed almost impossible for such a frozen region: above 100°F, or 38°C … a shocking first … fragile regions are rapidly changing. Sometimes one number can tell a much bigger story … climate change is no longer distant. It’s here. It’s now.

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Navigating the salinity gradient: Individual variation in habitat use and migration of European eel revealed by otolith microchemistry. doi.org/10.64898/202...

Navigating the salinity gradient: Individual variation in habitat use and migration of European eel revealed by otolith microchemistry

Knowledge regarding variation in habitat use among individuals is crucial for understanding population dynamics and for management and conservation measures. This is especially important for diadromous fishes that shift between habitats, being affected by external pressures and environmental change in different habitats over ontogeny. Herer, we assessed individual variation in habitat use of European eel along a salinity gradient, ranging from fully marine to freshwater in northern Europe, using otolith microchemistry data from >3600 eel together with established time-series segmentation and clustering methods. We show that eel display high degree of individual variation in habitat use. Assigned life-histories included coastal resident, freshwater resident, and coastal and freshwater habitat shifting individuals. Coastal resident eels were observed in a large range of salinities. Given the widespread occurrence of migration barriers in freshwater, it is unknown whether the coastal resident eel preferred that habitat, or if it was the only available habitat for them. Our findings nonetheless highlight the need to include coastal habitats when assessing population development and silver eel production of the critically endangered European eel. ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. Swedish Centre for Sustainable Hydropower (SVC), VKU31026 Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, https://ror.org/02yy8x990, SLU.ua.2024.4.1-3372, SLU.aqua.2025.1.1-46

doi.org

Data-driven forecasts of regional arrivals of non-native vertebrates worldwide. doi.org/10.64898/202...

Data-driven forecasts of regional arrivals of non-native vertebrates worldwide

Aim To forecast near-future arrivals of non-native terrestrial and freshwater vertebrates at the regional level. Location Global (geopolitical regions worldwide, including countries and main administrative divisions). Methods We compiled first regional record data and assembled functional and macroecological variables for 1,931 non-native vertebrate species. For each region, we identified ‘recently arrived’ non-native species using retrospective windows of thirty and twenty years ending in 2015 (1986–2015; 1996–2015). We then fitted region-specific random-forest models classifying recently arrived species versus those not yet arrived using as predictors: (i) harmonised species traits (e.g., habitat, diet, body size and native-range attributes) and (ii) spread history, capturing time since first record elsewhere. Predictive performance was evaluated using leave-one-out cross-validation, comparing full models with trait-only and spread-only variants. We also assessed relationships between predictive accuracy, predictor importance, and the geographic positioning and trade connectedness of regions. Finally, we predicted region-specific probabilities of arrival for species not yet recorded. Results Forecasting accuracy was consistently high across regions and taxa, with AUC values above 0.9 in more than half of the focal regions. Full models substantially outperformed models using either predictor set alone, and spread-history-only models typically exceeded trait-only models. Relative importance of spread-history predictors declined with geographic distance to the focal region, whereas predictability was lower in highly trade-connected regions. Predicted near-future high-risk arrivals were dominated by birds and freshwater fishes and showed strong regional structuring. A small set of species ranked highly across many regions (e.g., birds: Phasianus colchicus, Acridotheres tristis, Amandava amandava, Colinus virginianus, Corvus splendens and Lonchura malacca ; fishes: Coregonus peled and Oreochromis mossambicus ; mammal : Oryctolagus cuniculus ), suggesting substantial unrealised spread potential. Main conclusions Near-future regional arrivals of non-native vertebrates are predictable from spread history and species traits. This enables scalable, updateable regional watchlists to support prevention, early detection and horizon scanning. ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia, https://ror.org/00snfqn58, https://doi.org/10.54499/2023.12533.PEX, https://doi.org/10.54499/UID/00295/2025

doi.org