Ebola's R0 in African outbreaks is around 2, driven by funeral practices and care of the sick without PPE. In a developed-country setting, the R0 falls well below 1. This is one of the reasons why the risk of an Ebola outbreak in developed countries is low.

My latest article: How flu overtook COVID as Australia’s deadliest respiratory virus theconversation.com/how-flu-over...

How flu overtook COVID as Australia’s deadliest respiratory virus

In the second half of 2025 influenza killed more Australians a month than COVID. Here’s how it happened.

theconversation.com

Ebola in the DRC. Hantavirus on a cruise ship. Almost nobody mentions: about 8% of your DNA came from viruses. One captured viral gene is why mammals can grow a placenta. New piece: medium.com/@adrian.este...

Viruses Are Trying to Kill Us. They Also Built Us.

With Ebola and a hantavirus outbreak in the news, here’s the stranger truth about one of biology’s most peculiar things — including the…

medium.com

My latest article in The Conversation. Why diphtheria, whooping cough and measles have come back in Australia theconversation.com/why-diphther...

Why diphtheria, whooping cough and measles have come back in Australia

Diseases once thought confined to history are making a comeback in Australia. And vaccination is only part of the story.

theconversation.com

Australia is seeing a sharp rise in diphtheria cases in 2026, mainly in the NT, with a recent death highlighting how serious it is. Diphtheria can cause severe respiratory illness from a bacterial toxin. Childhood vaccination works well, but immunity fades. Many young adults are under-protected.

The elderly are the group that tend to end up in hospital with COVID, yet few protect themselves. Read my latest Medium article: medium.com/@adrian.este...

The world has stopped watching COVID. The risk for older people hasn’t.

An epidemiologist, aged 77, explains what the data still shows - and the simple steps that can still save lives

medium.com

Loneliness sits awkwardly in public health. It’s not infectious. It’s not a classic lifestyle risk. But it still affects mortality. The “as deadly as smoking” claim isn’t quite right, but the real story matters. My latest article in Medium: medium.com/@adrian.este...

Loneliness Is Not Quite As Deadly As Smoking. It Still Deserves The Same Attention.

An epidemiologist explains what the “loneliness vs smoking” claim gets wrong — and why the real problem is being overlooked.

medium.com

I just published America Left the WHO. Here’s What That Actually Means medium.com/p/america-le...

America Left the WHO. Here’s What That Actually Means

An epidemiologist and former WHO staff member explains what the US withdrawal really costs, and who pays the price.

medium.com

I just published The world has moved on from COVID. The risk hasn’t. medium.com/p/the-world-...

The world has moved on from COVID. The risk hasn’t.

An epidemiologist explains what the evidence says about when the next pandemic might happen — and why the risk isn’t declining

medium.com

Latest data from the Australian Department of Health, Disability and Ageing, show that Only 13% of people aged 75 and over are up to date with their booster. We need our governments, GPs and pharmacists working to improve this dire situation.

If you’ve had COVID and never quite felt the same afterwards — you’re not imagining it. Long COVID sits in an uncomfortable space: real, common enough to matter, but still not fully understood. I’ve written a plain-English explainer on symptoms, risk, and recovery. medium.com/@adrian.este...

Do you have long COVID? You’re not alone — here’s what we know

An epidemiologist explains what it is, how common it is, and what to expect

medium.com

A quick explainer on what WHO actually does seems to be resonating. I you haven't see nit: medium.com/@adrian.este...

What the World Health Organization actually does — and why it matters

An epidemiologist and ex-WHO staff member explains how the WHO works, how it’s funded, and why global coordination still matters

medium.com

Most people have heard of the WHO. Far fewer could explain what it actually does. Having worked within it, I’ve tried to set out how it works in practice, and why it matters. medium.com/@adrian.este...

What the World Health Organization actually does — and why it matters

An epidemiologist and ex-WHO staff member explains how the WHO works, how it’s funded, and why global coordination still matters

medium.com

During COVID. many epidemiologists found themselves explaining complex, uncertain data in real time - often without any training in communication. I wrote about what it was actually like: medium.com/@adrian.este...

I got called at 6am and sat alone in the dark for an hour.

What it was actually like to explain a pandemic in real time

medium.com

rdcu.be/e9ZSc My new article about epidemiologists and the media. Some of us got thrown into the media spotlight during the early years of the COVID pandemic, with little or no training.

Another good article from The Conversation about how measles is impacting on the USA (and many developed countries). theconversation.com/we-study-pan...

We study pandemics, and the resurgence of measles is a grim sign of what’s coming

Controlling the spread of many infections, including measles, depends on trust in public health, which is eroding.

theconversation.com

Journals are always struggling for reviewers, but many of them have such awful websites, it puts people off from accepting.

This is one of the many wonderful projects I am involved with www.talkingscrubs.com.au

Talking Scrubs

Talking Scrubs enable first-person communication for patients with permanent or temporary communication disabilities.

talkingscrubs.com.au

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This week’s uptick in SA COVID notifications highlights a broader issue. Without wastewater data or routine hospital reporting, we’re relying on a single surveillance stream. For respiratory viruses, triangulation is everything.

South Australian COVID notifications rose from 79 to 104 this week. Small numbers — but a clear upward move. If this continues next week, we may be seeing the start of the summer wave that never quite materialised.

This week’s uptick in SA COVID notifications highlights a broader issue. Without wastewater data or routine hospital reporting, we’re relying on a single surveillance stream. For respiratory viruses, triangulation is everything.

South Australian COVID notifications rose from 79 to 104 this week. Small numbers — but a clear upward move. If this continues next week, we may be seeing the start of the summer wave that never quite materialised.

Adelaide Aquatic Centre closures look like a precautionary response, not an outbreak. Parasites such as Cryptosporidium are uncommon, chlorine-resistant, and well known to pool managers. Temporary closures and deep cleaning are standard practice. Risk remains low. Public health working as intended.

Case numbers reflect testing, not true spread. Hospitalisations, aged-care outbreaks and wastewater matter more — but in Australia they’re reported inconsistently. The new CDC has a real opportunity to fix this.

COVID, flu and RSV haven’t suddenly changed. They now circulate year-round, but testing and reporting don’t. When surveillance weakens, outbreaks aren’t prevented — they’re detected later. Hospitalisations/aged-care homes/wastewater now matter more than raw case counts. Hopefully, CDC will help.

Adrian Esterman@profesterman.bsky.social · 6mo ago

COVID notifications in South Australia are very low for summer. Why? Short answer: this says more about surveillance than about the virus disappearing.

This is why raw case numbers now mislead. Surveillance should shift from population-wide testing to fragments: hospitals, aged care, wastewater - however, very sporadic reporting in Australia at the moment. When signals weaken, outbreaks don’t vanish — they arrive late.

COVID notifications in South Australia are very low for summer. Why? Short answer: this says more about surveillance than about the virus disappearing.

Australia isn’t facing new viruses. We’re facing weaker surveillance. When testing and reporting drop, outbreaks don’t disappear — they’re just seen later, making events look sudden and alarming.

Herd immunity isn’t ideology — it’s arithmetic. Dilute school-entry requirements and you shift risk onto infants, immunocompromised kids, and pregnant women.

Elizabeth Jacobs, PhD@elizabethjacobs.bsky.social · 6mo ago

State vaccine requirements for school entry are absolutely essential if we have any hope of maintaining herd immunity. It is madness for states to repeal these requirements. And vaccine exemptions should not be permitted unless for a documented medical contraindication.