Paul Middleton

@profpaulmiddleton.bsky.social

Professor of NT and Early Christianity, University of Chester. Researcher in violence and martyrdom in the ancient world. Double Bass player and SNP member.

I can tell you from experience, this essay by @profpaulmiddleton.bsky.social teaches *very well* and served as the reading for the capstone session to my martyrdom course this semester. Highly highly recommend.

Ancient Jew Review@ancientjewreview.bsky.social · 3mo ago

All this week we are featuring essays from our latest #forum celebrating the work of Elizabeth Castelli. Today we continue with an essay from Paul Middleton @profpaulmiddleton.bsky.social

I'm a bit surprised the post-mortem of Labour's worst Scottish Parliament result focus on the hope the 'surprise' by-election win in the Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse gave them. In fact, a 2% win in an easy seat was precisely in line with the SNP's 12% national opinion poll lead at the time.

The media don't seem to know how First Ministers are chosen in Scotland and Wales. You can either vote for a candidate or abstain; you don't get a vote against. The only way Labour could "block" Rhun ap Iorwerth is by voting for Reform's nominee with the Tories. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

Plaid Cymru's Rhun ap Iorwerth hopes to be first minister on Tuesday

With the largest Cardiff Bay group, ap Iorwerth needs to win a vote of Senedd members to take over.

bbc.co.uk

Against John Swinney's target of a majority, the SNP's 58 seats may feel flat. However, the Parliamentary arithmetic remains exactly the same. The SNP has more seats than the combination of *any* four of the other five parties, so as the last session, agreement can be struck with any single party.

A couple of interesting Scottish Election statistics: *In both the 1999 and 2003 Scottish Elections, the Liberal Democrats came *fourth* with 17 seats. In 2026, both second placed parties won 17 seats. *In 2026 Labour and Conservative combined achieved fewer seats than the Conservatives in 2021.

Scottish Election Result Constituency SNP 38.2% (-9.5) Labour 19.2% (-2.4) Reform UK 15.8% (new) Conservative 11.8% (-10.1) Liberal Democrat 11.4% (+4.4) Scottish Green 2.3% (+1) Top up List SNP 27.2% (-13.2) RefUK 16.6% (new) LAB 16% (-1.9) ScotGRN 14% (+5.9) CON 11.8% (-11.7) LibDem 9.4% (+4.3)

So after the election of the Presiding Officer and the First Minister, do Anas Sarwar and Malcolm Offord play a game of rock, paper, scissors to see whether Labour or Reform, both on 17 seats, get to call themselves the 'official opposition' (although the position is convention rather than formal).

Final Scottish Election 2026 result. SNP 58 (-6) Labour 17 (-5) Reform UK 17 (+17) Greens 15 (+7) Conservative 12 (-19) Liberal Democrats 10 (+6) *Best ever Scottish Green result *Worst ever Labour and Conservative results *Largest ever winning seat margin between first and second (41).

Waiting up for the Highland and Islands List result. Assuming the pattern of constituency and list votes, the SNP could be compensated for some constituency losses (despite picking up Shetland). Probably 2 each for Reform, Greens, Conservatives, and 1 for SNP. But we await the official count.

Been out and see that they are still counting in the Scottish Election. Still 7 regional list seats to come in. On a quick (and given I've had a few drinks perhaps incorrect) calculation on the likely spread of the Highland seats, Labour and Reform may both end up in joint second on 17 seats.

Scottish results going to be several hours for the 56 Regional seats. No doubt SNP has won a fifth consecutive term, but a good few seats short of a majority (although reminder it's a PR voting system). With 69/73 constituency seats declared: SNP 55 LibDem 5 Conservative 4 Labour 3 Greens 2

Final Wales Election result is sensational. Labour and Conservatives only have 16/96 seats between them! Plaid Cymru 43 Reform UK 34 Labour 9 Conservative 7 Green 2 Liberal Democrat 1 Plaid should have no difficulty forming a minority government.

Less well reported as we go into election week are the four April Scottish Independence polls. Should Scotland be an independent country? YES 53% NO 47% (Find out Now/Scotgoespop) YES 52% NO 48% (Survation/Diffley) YES 52% NO 48% (Survation/Ballot Box) YES 55% NO 45% (Norstat/Sunday Times)

Given there is a Scottish Parliament election in a few weeks time, there hasn't been very many polls. One from Survation last week: Constituency: SNP 35% LAB 19% REF 19% CON 11% GRN 8% LD 8% List: SNP 32% REF 18% LAB 17% CON 13% GRN 11% LD 8% Seat estimate SNP 62 REF 19 LAB 18 CON 12 GRN 11 LD 7

It's often said that those who are opposed to Assisted Dying legislation are standing up for and speaking for the most vulnerable in society. This is, of course, important. However, we always need to make sure thinking we're speaking up for folk doesn't mean speaking over them and failing to listen.

A difficult decision for all Scottish Parliamentarians today as the final vote takes place on the Assisted Dying bill. I am personally for this bill, for which the eligibility is restricted to residents of Scotland with a terminal illness, and a 6 month prognosis. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

Will Scotland be the first to legalise assisted dying?

The final vote on the Assisted Dying for Terminally Ill Adults (Scotland) Bill is seen as too close to call.

bbc.co.uk

Three Scottish Parliament Election polls this week. (Yougov/Ipsos/Survation) Two months out, the SNP are still well in front, with seat projections from 57-64. Some shuffling in all other positions with Labour and Reform battling for a poor second. Two polls show substantial Green gains. #SP2026

Scottish Election polls showing the SNP significantly down on 2021 performance, but that was a colossal 48% of the vote. Worth bearing in mind, Labour are the only other party which has ever received more than 35% of the vote at a Scottish Election: just once, in the first elections in 1999 (38.8%)

More Scottish Parliament polls out last week. Yougov/Find Out Now. Same basic story: SNP way out in front, Reform leading Labour Constituency SNP 34%/36% REFuk 18%/21% LAB 14%/12% GRN 11%/10% LD 10%/9% CON 10%/7% Regional SNP 28%/29% REFuk 19%/20% LAB 14%/12% GRN 16%/14% LD 10%/9% CON 10%/10%

Norstat Scottish Parliament poll 15 Feb 2026. Constituency: SNP 35% Reform UK 19% Labour 17% Conservative 10% Green 8% LibDem 8% Regional List: SNP 30% Reform UK 19% Labour 17% Conservative 11% Green 11% LibDem 7% Alba 3% Seat estimate (John Curtice) SNP 60 RUK 22 LAB 16 CON 13 GRN 10 LD 8

John Curtice projection on today's Norstat Scottish Parliament election poll. To put this in perspective, the highest number of seats attained by a party other than the SNP in Holyrood is 56 (LAB, 1999). 38 would be (by far) largest lead in seats between winners and second. (33, SNP v CON, 2021)

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There's a lot of very silly commentary on this poll, which was almost certainly commissioned by Restore. It does *not* say these are the current voting intentions; It does not suggest there's anything wrong with the polling firm. The question was designed to 'advertise' Restore.

Election Maps UK@electionmaps.uk · 6mo ago

"Yesterday, Rupert Lowe MP launched a political party named Restore Britain. If there were a General Election tomorrow, how would you vote in that election?" RFM: 25% GRN: 20% LAB: 15% CON: 13% RES: 10% LDM: 10% Via @findoutnow.bsky.social, 14 Feb.

Scottish Election (Holyrood) poll (More in Common, 5 Feb 2026). Constituency: SNP 35% Reform 19% LAB 18% CON: 11% LibDem: 10% GRN: 5% Regional: SNP 25% Reform 20% LAB 19% LibDem 13% CON 12% GRN 9% Seat estimate (John Curtice) SNP 59 LAB 19 Reform 19 LibDem 13 CON 11 GRN 8