Thibault Schrepel

@profschrepel.bsky.social

Associate Prof VU Amsterdam • Faculty Affiliate Stanford • Into Running 🏃🏻 #antitrust #AI #complexityscience #digitalmarkets 📕 www.thibaultschrepel.com 📻 https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/scalingtheory

Over 2,000 compute hours later, they find algorithmic collusion typically breaks. HOWEVER: pair a 32B model with a 14B one and the big model leads, the small one follows, and prices stay 21% above competitive. Capability gaps stabilise cartels rather than disrupt them.

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Andrew Perlman (Dean Suffolk Law) has built an archive comparing how 128 US law schools handle AI in coursework. Berkeley bans it by default. Chicago teaches 1L courses device-free while building supervised use into legal writing. Texas dropped take-home exams, etc...

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Force a platform to share its data with rivals on equal terms and you may end up with less data for everyone. Hanming Fang and Soo Jin Kim show that weak data neutrality is bypassed through pricing, and strong data neutrality cuts the platform's incentive to refine data in the first place. Equal acc

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NEW 📻 Peter Howitt won the 2025 Nobel for growth through creative destruction. On #ScalingTheory, he explains why more competition does not always produce more innovation, and why it depends on how close a firm sits to the technological frontier. We also talk about the EC’s draft Merger Guidelines..

Looking at every European Commission merger decision, the most-cited decisions are not the famous ones. They are market definition anchors in energy, oil, telecoms and retail. Exxon/Mobil sits at the center. The cases we write about do not.

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Looking at every European Commission merger decision, the most-cited decisions are not the famous ones. They are market definition anchors in energy, oil, telecoms and retail. Exxon/Mobil sits at the center. The cases we write about do not.

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EU merger law tells companies they can defend a deal with efficiencies. I read all 57 cases where they tried. Accepted as decisive: zero. The defence has never once saved a merger the European Commission wanted to block. It is a promise the record does not keep. Paper coming.

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This paper is an important reminder that “open weights” do not automatically create trust. If model trainers can, in principle, plant statistically undetectable backdoors, then relying on open-source frontier models developed by geopolitical rivals becomes a much harder governance question.

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I ran the European Commission’s new draft Merger Guidelines against all the merger decisions ever published. In many regards, the Guidelines go against the case law while pretending otherwise. Paper to follow...

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Summer = research & running ☀️ Living in Amsterdam for eight years is a gift. Why travel elsewhere in the summer? With the canals, forests, the swimming, we have so much right here. This city is so incredibly hard to beat during the summer time.

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I am launching a newsletter. It is called The Competition System. It is an empirical, referenced account of the cases and rules that shape competition in Europe. Articles 101 and 102, the DMA, DSA, the AI Act, MiCA, the Data Act, etc. Every claim is traceable to its source.

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1 – Today’s Google Android judgment (C-738/22 P) is the end of a 13-year case. It’s also the start of something bigger. The EU Court of Justice just confirmed the 3rd generation of big tech competition enforcement. And the Commission is already applying it to AI, before the ink is dry. A thread 🧵

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Data neutrality does intensify downstream competition, but it kills the platform's incentive to refine and produce the very input the rule is trying to equalize. The DMA’s data-sharing mandate may be equalizing access to a shrinking pie. Fair ≠ welfare-enhancing.

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