There is an irony here that many will read the changing polls and potential recovery as being about Burnham defeating Reform rather than Reform self-destructing at the same time as Labour voters returned from the Greens.

The Bear@bearlypolitics.co.uk · last mo.

Does anyone else have the feeling that Reform UK’s ascendancy suddenly feels less certain? Since the £5m bung revelation, I can’t help but feel that Nige and Co have been seriously on the back foot. Is that just me being overly optimistic, or has the sense of inevitability waned?

Just back from holiday and catching up. Interesting quirk in latest @yougov.co.uk polling is they have a different party ahead in each of the four age groups they disaggregate. 18-24 Green 25-49 Labour 50-64 Reform 65+ Conservative

Meh summer out of office runs out tomorrow and it is still going to be 30 degrees outside. I basically need a seasonal siesta for June-August.

Also my school year and that of the 1970 Birth Cohort Study participants if you wanted an interesting way to look at their formative years.

Sunder Katwala (sundersays)@sundersays.bsky.social · last mo.

Ed Miliband (born Dec 1969), Andy Burnham (Jan 1970) and James Purnell (April 1970) are all in the same school year. Aged 9 at primary school 1979 Undergraduates in 1989-90 Aged 27 in 1997 In Cabinet < 40 in 2008-2010 Now at core of 2026-29 government

The implied group here who prefer Burnham to Farage but Badenoch above or equal to Burnham are especially interesting for how 'block' politics may not always align as expected.

YouGov@yougov.co.uk · last wk.

Andy Burnham's lead over his opponents on who would make the better PM has grown over the last month Burnham: 48% (+5 from 23-24 Jun) Farage: 22% (-1) Burnham: 38% (+6) Badenoch: 26% (-2) Burnham: 45% (+7) Polanski: 9% (-2) Burnham: 41% (+9) Davey: 8% (-3) yougov.com/en-gb/articl...

In honour of this annoucement I am going to make a cup of tea where I add the milk before the water* *This is actually how I always make tea

Alex Partridge@alexpartridge87.bsky.social · 3w ago

OFFICAL: Andy Burnham is leader of the Labour Party

Somehow this feels an appropriate juxtaposition on my timeline today

I still can't see a headline like this without thinking 'well that's a weird thing to do after she died'

On the plus side my holiday in Devon won't be rudely interrupted by a bank holiday weekend.

So after midnight, they can't reach out to friends via social media but it'll be fine to chat to AI? BBC News - Midnight social media curfew proposed for older UK teens - BBC News www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

Midnight social media curfew proposed for older UK teens

Teenagers will be able to opt out of the restrictions - campaigners have criticised them as being piecemeal.

bbc.co.uk

Made it.

Decided on balance my air conned car was going to be preferable to a cross country train today. Hope I don't come to regret the choice somewhere on the M1 later this afternoon.

With hindsight, his best timing for the byelection gambit was to wait for the report & to resign that day, saying you don't need to get the signatures, asking Clacton's voters to re-elect him. He'd then get a contested byelection. (This pre-emptive version depended on other parties contesting it).

Cricket fans and Yorkshire people. How difficult is it to drive to Headingly (for someone who drives regularly but really hates it).

Do you wonder about how women in the UK are known to be ‘more traditionalist’ and yet vote more progressive? Well, wonder no more! @cerifowler.bsky.social and I have a new paper in @electoralstudies.bsky.social on how this supposed paradox is a measurement artefact 1/ 8

Theories and measurement of political values and under-represented groups: the case of women in the UK

This paper argues that the primary divide in values (Inglehart, 1977; 1990) between safety and self-expression lies in a different place for discrimin…

sciencedirect.com

Given Clacton has lowish turnout, by elections usually have low turnouts, parties not standing lowers turnout - how long before there are more candidates than likely voters?

Again, there's really no wonder we don't get the political satire we ussed to - how would you tell it apart from the real thing? (Referring here to the 'Woke word list' no @localnotail.bsky.social's post of course)

Jane@localnotail.bsky.social · last yr.

Discovered the British Democrats party after their new councillor in Cornwall delivered an antisemitic speech at the Great British National Strike on Saturday. Here's their 100 Woke Word list : britishdems.co.uk/2025/05/24/1...

Someone seems to have forgotten to turn the gentle breeze on today 🥵

"In what must rank as one of the most self-pitying, self-obsessed pieces of political rhetoric we’ve heard from a politician since Boris Johnson’s myriad attempts to justify himself back in 2022, Nigel Farage surprised absolutely no-one..." Me for @uk.theconversation.com this arvo.

Why Nigel Farage is resigning as an MP, only to stand again – expert analysis

Nigel Farage is triggering a by-election, appearing to be pitting people against ‘the establishment’.

theconversation.com

Understand the sentiment but I'm not sure parties paying for by elections is something any of us should really want to happen.

They might find this a helpful starting point www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-m...

Small Data: How much do by-elections cost?

By-elections cost more per constituency and per voter than general elections.

bbc.co.uk

Paula Surridge@psurridge.bsky.social · 4w ago

I'm sure the Reform DOGE will be all over such a waste of public funds as an entirely unnecessary by-election

I'm sure the Reform DOGE will be all over such a waste of public funds as an entirely unnecessary by-election

It could be a very significant test of the 'Stop Reform' dynamic on the left and whether they are willing to vote Tory to do so.

Rob Ford@robfordmancs.bsky.social · 4w ago

Going to be interesting to see what the other parties do in Clacton. Con are second and will doubtless fight hard Labour might prefer a Farage defeat even if Cons are the winners? Even more so for LD/Grn voters but would they be willing to vote Con? Will Restore put up a high profile candidate?

Not sure a by-election in Clacton is the best way to lower Restore Britain's profile.

Maybe he's doing Strictly?

Just starting the UCAS process with eldest. Wants to do Philosophy and it says alot about the state of HE that my first consideration is whether the course will be shut down in the next 4 years.

What we need right now is an exit poll

Will Jennings📉🗳️@drjennings.bsky.social · last mo.

This is worse than an election all-nighter...

Feeling sorry for all those who actually are unwell today/tonight and can't make it to school/work tomorrow.

Feel like being a Spurs fan was good preparation for this match

There is an irony here that many will read the changing polls and potential recovery as being about Burnham defeating Reform rather than Reform self-destructing at the same time as Labour voters returned from the Greens.

The Bear@bearlypolitics.co.uk · last mo.

Does anyone else have the feeling that Reform UK’s ascendancy suddenly feels less certain? Since the £5m bung revelation, I can’t help but feel that Nige and Co have been seriously on the back foot. Is that just me being overly optimistic, or has the sense of inevitability waned?