René Duba 🅿️

@reneduba.bsky.social

Conflict analyst 🅿️ (parked here) Chat = not used

On Russian survival More than 30 000 Russian soldiers p/month get hit so badly on the frontline that they either die or cannot continue to fight. There are (30.5*24*60)=43920 minutes in a month. So, Russian soldiers have 1.46 minutes of being exposed before being taken out. 1/

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Can the US regain the trust lost by Trump? Will the world trust the US again with a new president who makes more sense? Probably not. Why? We will remember that in the US a majority could be rallied around a full and blatant disregard of reality, the veneration of lies even.

The shadow fleet consists of aging vessels lacks protective double hulls around their bunker tanks (containing heavy fuel oil and diesel). These are highly vulnerable to ruptures and fires in the event of military strikes. Fires may well extend to damage the engine room.

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Why does Ukraine attack the bridge and/or engine room of a Shadow Fleet tanker? The engine is the most valuable part of these ships. A damaged hull can still be repaired if the damage is limited, but without a functioning engine, the ship is scrapped.

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I found a question that AI can't deal with easily: "What was Dr. House's role in the Treaty of Westphalia?" I tried Google AI, Grok, Le Chat, ChatGPT. They all get lost in the Treaty of Westphalia (1648). Some even mention that actor Hugh Laurie wasn't alive back then. 1/2

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How will Russia fare without logistics? Let's remember World War 2: 1. Forced Expansionist Strategies: The Reich's chronic lack of oil dictated high-risk campaigns into North Africa and the Soviet Union to obtain oil. By themselves, neither were a strategist's first choice. 1/5

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🚀 Consequences of the attack by cruise missiles on the plant of JSC "VZPP-S" (Voronezh Plant of Semiconductor Devices), - Exilenova Officially stated about 5 dead. At the time of the strike, there was no evacuation of workers.

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💥 Russia: Ukraine struck the Kstovo Oil Refinery in Nizhny Novgorod region, 800 km away. Annual capacity 17 million tons, 6% of Russia's total output of refined petroleum products. Produced 11% of Russia's gasoline. 1/3 of the gas produced went to Moscow.

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Extreme Russian nationalists like Alexey Zhuravlyov threaten to annihilate Finland, bomb half of it or claim that other countries bordering Russia are "historic Russian grounds". Why do you think that this ideation gets a certain level of popular support in Russia?

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When IR meets gas molecules in the atmosphere such as CO2 or methane, it converts to thermal heat, which warms water droplets in the clouds, it transfers to the oceans, it radiates back to Earth, it rises through convection and radiates into space. A surplus leads to warming. 1/

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CBS News mentions that Russia is running out of S-300 air defence systems. The S-300 is the mainstay of Russian air defence and is being systematically targeted by Ukraine that thus obtains air superiority over Russia for its drone attacks.

Ukraine's deep strikes leaving Russia short on air defense missiles, possibly at an "unsustainable rate"

Ukraine intelligence indicates the country's stepped up drone strikes are forcing Russia to burn through interceptor missiles, possibly faster than it can build new ones.

cbsnews.com

VERY BIG TOP NEWS TODAY 🔝 😎 SBU strikes Tamannaftogas, a key hydrocarbon transshipment complex in southern Russia 🔥 SBS hit the largest giant plant in Eastern Europe in Armyansk, currently owned by "Russian Titan", that produces titanium dioxide. 1/3

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