Not news to beauty market nerds, but still fascinating. Premium beauty is 50%+ of China market by value. Plus 2/3rds of beauty sales are online & that's on top of past dizzying channel shifts from Hainan to douyin to lots of other stuff! $LRLCY $LVMUY $EL $HESAY $PG

Rahul Sharma@retailguru.bsky.social · 7h ago

L'Oreal says beauty category momentum continued through July & August after Q2 acceleration. Strength across the globe including in China, with Lat Am the only soft spot $LRLCY $EL $XLP $ULTA $PG $UL $LVMUY

L'Oreal says beauty category momentum continued through July & August after Q2 acceleration. Strength across the globe including in China, with Lat Am the only soft spot $LRLCY $EL $XLP $ULTA $PG $UL $LVMUY

Rahul Sharma@retailguru.bsky.social · last mo.

Steady as she goes at L'Oreal, as beauty continues to do better than most other staples. Sales healthy in all regions, led by beautyceuticals & salon products. Premium beauty in China a call out although $LRLCY sounds less robust on share gains in segment $EL $PG $UL $XLP $ULTA

$ZGN updates on current trade in upscale/luxury: July-August still strong. Zegna sales up 10%+ at retail, across regions led by US, Europe better post World Cup. Aware of reports of China weakness on new taxes, but saw strength there too. $TPR $RL $CFRUY $LVMUY $HESAY $EL $AXP

Rahul Sharma@retailguru.bsky.social · 4w ago

Of course, this says nada about upscale consumer who remains incredibly resilient/strong across globe, not just in US, even in these Coach numbers. $TPR $RL $LVMUY $CFRUY $HESAY $EL $LRLCY $AXP

Unpretty Q, horrible guide & a bonus dividend cut. Campbell says 'increasing focus on consumer'! Hello where was the urgency yesterday? US food companies caught in bind as with outdated (unhealthy) portfolios & big channel shifts. $CPB $GIS $KR $KHC $ACI $WMT $DG $AMZN $DLTR $XLP

My concern with $ULTA is high margin & proliferation of $AMZN & other competition in beauty. That said, 70% of sales in premium beauty are better protected given still large (& falling) department store share. And premium is outperforming mass in US. $EL $LRLCY $TGT $M $DDS

Rahul Sharma@retailguru.bsky.social · 2w ago

$ULTA comp solid 3.8% y/y and even better on 2-year stack, accelerating for seventh straight quarter. Beauty remains in a good place, led by premium with fragrance still outpacing total although $ULTA skincare share looks a touch soft. $LRLCY $EL $LVMUY $UL $PG

$ULTA comp solid 3.8% y/y and even better on 2-year stack, accelerating for seventh straight quarter. Beauty remains in a good place, led by premium with fragrance still outpacing total although $ULTA skincare share looks a touch soft. $LRLCY $EL $LVMUY $UL $PG

With retail reporting largely complete, picture of healthy consumer with most improvement at lower end & apparel strength. But shows how much Nike troubles are dragging on sporting goods retail globally at time of relative plenty. $NKE $ADDYY $DKS $DG $DLTR $BBY $WSM $URBN $ROST

Rahul Sharma@retailguru.bsky.social · 2w ago

Oof. ☠️. That mirage-like Footlocker turnaround drags down another high flier after Mary Dillion as Dicks warns. But $DKS is cutting outlook for core brand too as Nike struggles drag on industry across-board driving higher promotions & lower margin. $NKE $ULTA $ADDYY

Dollar General & Dollar Tree saw traffic inflect up, higher discretionary sales driving gross margin. Impressively at both, despite up sales, inventory lower. Folks upset about $DLTR investing tariff upside but churlish given big share gains vs supermarkets $DG $WMT $KR $ACI

Rahul Sharma@retailguru.bsky.social · 2w ago

Vs ongoing market narrative of pressured low end, highlight this Q in retail is upside at discounters led by accelerating traffic including Ross, Dollar General, Dollar Tree. NOT just trading down: discretionary goods very healthy. Implies pressure easing. $DLTR $ROST $DG $XLF $XLY $V

Vs ongoing market narrative of pressured low end, highlight this Q in retail is upside at discounters led by accelerating traffic including Ross, Dollar General, Dollar Tree. NOT just trading down: discretionary goods very healthy. Implies pressure easing. $DLTR $ROST $DG $XLF $XLY $V

Rahul Sharma@retailguru.bsky.social · 2w ago

Retail reporting largely over & solid again reflecting healthy consumer. Individual standouts include $WSM & $TGT but generally not upside seen in Q1. But apparel as category strong across board from $ROST to $ANF & (outside travel & arrive) $URBN. 💪 $XLY $XLF $XRT $V

Strong electronics signal consumer willing to spend. Best Buy finally catches tailwind, lifting comp guide by 200+bp. But disappointing that despite big comp upside, margin ex tariff refunds fell. Surefire sign $BBY is cyclical/has no pricing power = low multiple stuff.

Retail reporting largely over & solid again reflecting healthy consumer. Individual standouts include $WSM & $TGT but generally not upside seen in Q1. But apparel as category strong across board from $ROST to $ANF & (outside travel & arrive) $URBN. 💪 $XLY $XLF $XRT $V

Sonoma says home furnishings market flat this Q but $WSM grew both furniture & non-furniture = 6.2% comp all share gain: acceleration both in-store & web, sign of brand heat. Says chasing inventory to meet demand. B2B also accelerated +15% as initiative working. $RH $ARHS $ETD

Rahul Sharma@retailguru.bsky.social · 2w ago

All three major Sonoma brands comped at 5% or more with comp accelerating on 2 & 3 year stacks, showing significant brand heat. Guide confidence also evident in gift card revenue +7%, yet inventory well-managed only +1%, helping Q2 operating cash flow +34%. $WSM $RH $ARHS $XRT

Alber says Sonoma is confident of delivering regardless of housing market weakness. Recognises market can change quickly but $WSM is positioned to respond quickly accordingly. $XLY $XLF $RH $HD $LOW $ARHS

Rahul Sharma@retailguru.bsky.social · 2w ago

Given Sonoma strong run, almost no print would be strong enough but another phenom 'compounding on compounding 'Q by $WSM. Comps on fire at all brands despite tariffs, housing. Lifts sales & margin guide above street despite higher tax drag. Alber just fantastic. $XRT $RH

All three major Sonoma brands comped at 5% or more with comp accelerating on 2 & 3 year stacks, showing significant brand heat. Guide confidence also evident in gift card revenue +7%, yet inventory well-managed only +1%, helping Q2 operating cash flow +34%. $WSM $RH $ARHS $XRT

Rahul Sharma@retailguru.bsky.social · 2w ago

Given Sonoma strong run, almost no print would be strong enough but another phenom 'compounding on compounding 'Q by $WSM. Comps on fire at all brands despite tariffs, housing. Lifts sales & margin guide above street despite higher tax drag. Alber just fantastic. $XRT $RH

Unlike almost any other retailer, clarity of communications a highlight at $WSM. No obfuscation like $WMT, $HD & others about tariff refunds. Performance & outlook reported clearly excluding tariff refunds as the one-off they are. $HD $LOW $TGT $XRT

Rahul Sharma@retailguru.bsky.social · 2w ago

Given Sonoma strong run, almost no print would be strong enough but another phenom 'compounding on compounding 'Q by $WSM. Comps on fire at all brands despite tariffs, housing. Lifts sales & margin guide above street despite higher tax drag. Alber just fantastic. $XRT $RH

Given Sonoma strong run, almost no print would be strong enough but another phenom 'compounding on compounding 'Q by $WSM. Comps on fire at all brands despite tariffs, housing. Lifts sales & margin guide above street despite higher tax drag. Alber just fantastic. $XRT $RH

Oof. ☠️. That mirage-like Footlocker turnaround drags down another high flier after Mary Dillion as Dicks warns. But $DKS is cutting outlook for core brand too as Nike struggles drag on industry across-board driving higher promotions & lower margin. $NKE $ULTA $ADDYY

Ross comps another blockbuster 10%, led by traffic, with sales strengthening into July. Strength even at lower end despite $WMT trying to use 'stress' excuse. Suggests $TJX Marmaxx hiccup really was execution not something more sinister. $ROST $TGT $XLF $XLY

Rahul Sharma@retailguru.bsky.social · 3w ago

$WMT ties soft June sales to elevated gas prices hurting lower income demos. Says July better & back to school going well. But can you ignore $AMZN Prime Day shift impact on non-food in June? Not sure $WMT comes out smelling of roses after this call. $TGT

$WMT ties soft June sales to elevated gas prices hurting lower income demos. Says July better & back to school going well. But can you ignore $AMZN Prime Day shift impact on non-food in June? Not sure $WMT comes out smelling of roses after this call. $TGT

Rahul Sharma@retailguru.bsky.social · 3w ago

$WMT US web sales again impressive at +24%, best of Big 3 by some margin. Web penetration rising at steady pace of 300-400bp y/y. But more than offset by fall in store sales. Blames pharma deflation but had no issues overcoming that in Q1 - non-food as much of culprit. $TGT $AMZN

$WMT lifting sales guide, though positioning it as reaction to higher price investment funded by tariff refunds. But also points to higher fuel hit, so how much is it really investing? Plus saying consumer 'softer' since Feb is misleading - remember April Q was very strong.

Rahul Sharma@retailguru.bsky.social · 3w ago

Market reaction tells its own story but this isn't just about punchy $WMT multiple. Underwhelming comp even ex-pharmacy: deceleration on 1/2/3-year stacks. And third straight Q with down in-store sales, but decline accelerating -2.5% this Q, unlike $TGT, +2.7%. $AMZN $XLY

$WMT US web sales again impressive at +24%, best of Big 3 by some margin. Web penetration rising at steady pace of 300-400bp y/y. But more than offset by fall in store sales. Blames pharma deflation but had no issues overcoming that in Q1 - non-food as much of culprit. $TGT $AMZN

Rahul Sharma@retailguru.bsky.social · 3w ago

Market reaction tells its own story but this isn't just about punchy $WMT multiple. Underwhelming comp even ex-pharmacy: deceleration on 1/2/3-year stacks. And third straight Q with down in-store sales, but decline accelerating -2.5% this Q, unlike $TGT, +2.7%. $AMZN $XLY

Market reaction tells its own story but this isn't just about punchy $WMT multiple. Underwhelming comp even ex-pharmacy: deceleration on 1/2/3-year stacks. And third straight Q with down in-store sales, but decline accelerating -2.5% this Q, unlike $TGT, +2.7%. $AMZN $XLY

Rahul Sharma@retailguru.bsky.social · 3w ago

Can't complain about Target Q. Healthy read on customer, especially around mid-range. 2/3/4-year stacked comp all improved vs prior Q, led by traffic. Margin recovery continues even if limited by still soft discretionary areas (home, apparel). $TGT $WMT $AMZN $XLY $XLF $XRT

At time of (general) retail plenty, DIY retailers given their link to housing turnover sound like they're on different planet. $LOW cuts sales/earnings outlook. Depot now includes tariff refunds in guide (& $HD was once gold standard with pristine financials & guide!) $XLY $XLF

Rahul Sharma@retailguru.bsky.social · 3w ago

Can't complain about Target Q. Healthy read on customer, especially around mid-range. 2/3/4-year stacked comp all improved vs prior Q, led by traffic. Margin recovery continues even if limited by still soft discretionary areas (home, apparel). $TGT $WMT $AMZN $XLY $XLF $XRT

$TGT still a big laggard on web sales, despite much smaller base. $AMZN with massive sales base up mid-teens & $WMT (6X size of Target online) likely to hit mid 20s. One offset (partly easy compare), $TGT running positive comp in-store vs $WMT in-store down for 2 straight Qs.

Rahul Sharma@retailguru.bsky.social · 3w ago

Can't complain about Target Q. Healthy read on customer, especially around mid-range. 2/3/4-year stacked comp all improved vs prior Q, led by traffic. Margin recovery continues even if limited by still soft discretionary areas (home, apparel). $TGT $WMT $AMZN $XLY $XLF $XRT

Can't complain about Target Q. Healthy read on customer, especially around mid-range. 2/3/4-year stacked comp all improved vs prior Q, led by traffic. Margin recovery continues even if limited by still soft discretionary areas (home, apparel). $TGT $WMT $AMZN $XLY $XLF $XRT

Estee 13%margin target woeful vs L'Oreal Luxe at 22%+. Over-emphasis on China & much lower fragrance exposure led to multiple years of pain. Not all clear, but as margin-rich skincare picks up, brighter $EL outlook. All regions positive including US & Europe ex Middle East.

Rahul Sharma@retailguru.bsky.social · 3w ago

No coincidence that L'Oreal language on share gains more muted than before. This Estee Lauder Q looks like business getting its mojo back as skin care starts to outperform. Meanwhile another upbeat report on premium beauty. $EL $LRLCY $XLP $PG $UL $ULTA $LVMUY

No coincidence that L'Oreal language on share gains more muted than before. This Estee Lauder Q looks like business getting its mojo back as skin care starts to outperform. Meanwhile another upbeat report on premium beauty. $EL $LRLCY $XLP $PG $UL $ULTA $LVMUY

Rahul Sharma@retailguru.bsky.social · last mo.

Steady as she goes at L'Oreal, as beauty continues to do better than most other staples. Sales healthy in all regions, led by beautyceuticals & salon products. Premium beauty in China a call out although $LRLCY sounds less robust on share gains in segment $EL $PG $UL $XLP $ULTA

$AMZN Prime Day shift impact visible in web sales slipping from +12% in June to still-strong +7.7% in July. But worth highlighting as a sign of healthy spend that even regular under-performers like department stores up 3% over past three months. $M $KSS $DDS $WMT $XLY $XLF

Rahul Sharma@retailguru.bsky.social · 4w ago

Another robust read on US retail sales ex autos/gas +4.8%, with discretionary categories strong at +5% or more including DIY, electronics, apparel, sporting & eating out. Web again strong although some payback for $AMZN Prime Day. 💪 $XLY $XLF $XRT $HD $LOW $WMT $URBN $IDEXF

On underwhelming end, furniture remains persistently weak (although at odds with recent reads from Wayfair, Arhaus), & grocery and drug stores, which are having their head handed to them by $WMT & $AMZN. $KR $ACI $W $WSM $ARHS $XLF $XLY

Rahul Sharma@retailguru.bsky.social · 4w ago

Another robust read on US retail sales ex autos/gas +4.8%, with discretionary categories strong at +5% or more including DIY, electronics, apparel, sporting & eating out. Web again strong although some payback for $AMZN Prime Day. 💪 $XLY $XLF $XRT $HD $LOW $WMT $URBN $IDEXF

Another robust read on US retail sales ex autos/gas +4.8%, with discretionary categories strong at +5% or more including DIY, electronics, apparel, sporting & eating out. Web again strong although some payback for $AMZN Prime Day. 💪 $XLY $XLF $XRT $HD $LOW $WMT $URBN $IDEXF