For my next Substack article: a Q&A with the author of one of my favorite recent Sloan papers : deep RL + Shapley for NBA player valuation. Drop any questions you'd want me to ask Link to paper: tinyurl.com/2p9kupez
Deep Reinforcement Learning for NBA Player Valuation: A Temporal Difference Approach with Shapley Attribution
We are proud to continue the great tradition of bringing together the leading figures in sports analytics, business, and technology.
tinyurl.com
Here is my 26 Draft Board. Unfortunately, no write-up this year, been busy with life.
Havent posted here in a while. Here is my latest article. open.substack.com/pub/hardscre... My Attempt at trying to Quantify Gravity
An Incomplete Theory of Gravity
How do you weigh something invisible? A five-step crawl from a rubber band around five players to a neural net — measuring the pull of a shooter, with all the wrong turns kept in.
open.substack.com
New article out: a broad look at my Top 20 guys for the 2026 draft. hardscreenherald.substack.com/p/early-2026... #NBASKY
Early 2026 NBA Draft Big Board: Top 20 Prospect Overview
The 2026 NBA draft class is shaping up to be an exciting group, headlined by elite talent across positions.
hardscreenherald.substack.com
“Everyone runs pick-and-roll and jacks threes.” Kinda… but not really. I clustered team styles from iso/DHO/PnR to transition + O-glass and found 11 distinct identities. Dive in: open.substack.com/pub/hardscre... #NBASKY
Thirty Teams, Eleven Dialects
Clustering playtypes to decode how each offense speaks
open.substack.com
New article up: LASER (shooting threat, not just %) + BOOST (team spacing compounding). Top LASER seasons: 2015–16 Curry, 2014–15 Korver, 2024–25 LaVine. Top BOOST teams: 2023–25 Celtics, 2017–18 Rockets, 2016–17 Cavs. Full piece + interactive tables: tinyurl.com/yck7n5u4
LASER: A Metric for Capturing Shooting Threat and Spacing
Why 3-Point Percentage Falls Short as a Threat Metric
tinyurl.com
Just published: a deep dive into my player style clustering tool. From Dragic’s 2014 breakout to Giannis’s one-of-one profile, from OKC’s balance to the Lakers’ gaps - mapping the NBA by how guys actually play. Shoutout @gabriel1200.bsky.social for hosting the tool. tinyurl.com/2p9rp8wm #NBASKY
From Dragic to Giannis: A Data-Driven Map of NBA Play Styles
Clustering player seasons shows who plays alike, and what teams are missing
open.substack.com
Just dropped the new Shot-Making Model 2.0 - now covering 1996–2025 with play-by-play data, arena bias fixes, and era adjustments. Curry ‘16 is still untouchable, KD has multiple all-time seasons, and some hidden gems pop up too. 🔗 hardscreenherald.substack.com/p/shot-quali... #NBAKSY
Shot Quality in High Definition: The Play-by-Play Upgrade
Recap: The Old Tracking-Based Model (Bins and Baselines)
hardscreenherald.substack.com
Gonna finish the write up on shotquality model v2 soon. This version goes back to the 96-97 season, and should be more comprehensive. Here are the top guys from that season
New release for #NBAKSY, just in time for your morning coffee. courtsketch.com/shotmaking This is CourtSketchs's shotmaking page. Based upon @reverseenigma.bsky.social 's modeling work, it allows you to assess player shotmaking relative to shot quality for any player season over the last 12 years.🧵
New article on trying to measure Shotmaking and Shot Quality open.substack.com/pub/hardscre... The data will be available soon on nbavisuals.com
Beyond the Box Score: How Good Are You Really At Making Shots
Who actually adds points once you account for the kinds of shots they take?
open.substack.com
New piece is up: on Tyrese Haliburton, the echoes of John Stockton, and why he feels so different from other stars. Tyrese Haliburton: The Modern Stockton – Master of the Advantage open.substack.com/pub/hardscre...
Tyrese Haliburton: The Modern Stockton – Master of the Advantage
Tyrese Haliburton doesn’t attack you so much as he takes what you give him.
open.substack.com
Just launched my Substack 🏀 First piece dives into the NBA CBA - what the first/second apron rules actually do, the panic they’ve caused, and why some of the loudest fears are a bit overblown. open.substack.com/pub/hardscre...
The New NBA CBA: Panic, Reality, and the Game Behind the Rules
Separating Fact from Fiction
open.substack.com
Inspired by @iztokfranko.bsky.social latest post, wanted to see how the western conference teams looked broken down using the clusters from nbavisuals.com/player_style Cluster names still need some work.
How are the top 10 teams in the West really built? I ran a clustering model on 300+ players to break down offensive archetypes. And reveal strengths, gaps, and roster building shifts from last season. Lakers, Mavs, Nuggets, OKC, Rockets... all included👇 digginbasketball.substack.com/p/nba-west-p...
How the West Is Built
A data-driven look at player archetypes for the top 10 Western Conference contenders including the Lakers and Mavericks
digginbasketball.substack.com
New feature out! This is Court Sketches's playlist tool. Give it any team, player and date range combination across the last 5 seasons, and it will serve you a stylized playlist of filterable clips, one you can share with the click of a button. Let me know what you think! nbavisuals.com/playlist
The draft cycle continues. Very early look at my board for 2026. Should be a fun class
Some second round steals I loved: Charlotte: Sion James and Ryan Kalkbrenner. Hornets grab the draft’s most NBA ready rim protector plus a connective wing who moves the ball and defends. Nice mix of spacing and interior presence. Been a while since I thought Charlotte nailed the draft. Good change
Some of my favorite draft fits so far: Cedric Coward to Memphis is pretty seamless. With Bane gone they needed a rangy wing who can spot up, cut, and guard 1-3.
Fun first day of the draft! Wild and sometimes baffling choices all over. Twenty-six of my top 30 prospects are gone. Here are the four still waiting:
Final draft board is set. More movement than expected: some late risers, a few tough drops. Took a step back to reassess the big picture. Tried to balance film, data, and role projection, and especially who I trust to earn a second contract in the new CBA. 🔗 docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
NBA Big Board 2025
docs.google.com
New tool out, in collaboration with Owen Phillips of the f5! This is our League Rankings tool. Based on a graphic from a recent f5 piece, it allows you to select up to 80+ stats, and see where every team ranked in that stat for the past 12 nba seasons. nbavisuals.com/leagueranks Lmk what you think!
With the new CBA, it’s even more vital for teams to find contributors on cost-controlled deals. We’ve seen guys like Trayce Jackson-Davis and Jaylen Wells carve out early roles. Here are some 2025 prospects outside the top 30 who I think could do the same. 🔗 www.rookiescale.com/2025-consens...
2025 NBA Draft Consensus Big Board - Rookie Scale
Weighted aggregation of mainstream and #DraftTwitter big boards and mock drafts.
rookiescale.com
Some rambling thoughts on Tyrese Haliburton and why he feels so different from your typical star guard 🧵
Some thoughts on 18 guys who I think might have a chance to be useful for the teams that draft them. intheno.substack.com/p/18-prospec...
18 Prospects Who Might Become Something
The NBA draft is endlessly fascinating for fans, analysts, and executives alike.
intheno.substack.com
Everyone talks about Collin Murray-Boyles’ jumper like it’s the big swing skill. But I think that misses the point. His path to NBA value for me isn’t about turning into a shooter: it’s about tightening his handle, improving his finishing, and expanding his scoring craft.
Updated my 2025 NBA Draft Big Board: now a full Top 100. It blends film-based scouting with a machine learning model projecting 5-year EPM. 45+ full reports linked, with tiers, roles, swing skills, and outcome comps. Check it out: docs.google.com/spreadsheets... Feedback welcome.
NBA Big Board 2025
docs.google.com
📝 Just dropped my 2025 NBA Draft Big Board. Every prospect is tiered, with projected roles, swing skills, and NBA outcome ranges (low/median/high). Click any name for a full scouting report. Check it out here: docs.google.com/spreadsheets... Open for feedback or debate.
NBA Big Board 2025
docs.google.com
@iztokfranko.bsky.social think I found the funniest group of player comps for a player so far. Any guesses on what’s being captured
Just shared my NBA Big Board featuring my top 60 prospects! Dive into insights on their projected roles, swing skills, and comps ranging from low median to high. Open to any feedback or questions! docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
NBA BIg Board 2025
docs.google.com