Gen Alpha has 2M fewer people than Gen Z did at the same age—and low immigration means they won't close that gap by their prime formation years. That's one of two headwinds facing young adult HH growth. The other: affordability. My @harvard-jchs.bsky.social blog: www.jchs.harvard.edu/blog/afforda...

Declining immigration is undermining national population growth, per the @harvard-jchs.bsky.social State of the Nation's Housing report, and my most recent blog post explains how that breaks down on the local level: www.jchs.harvard.edu/blog/declini....

Declining Immigration Undermines Urban and Rural Population Growth

jchs.harvard.edu

#MapMonday: how did sheltered homelessness change by state in Jan 2025? Per @airbrycki.bsky.social, an overall decline was driven by drops in NY, IL, CO & MA, offsetting increases elsewhere, including a hurricane-related jump in NC: www.jchs.harvard.edu/blog/homeles... @harvard-jchs.bsky.social

Our Center seeks applications for a 𝗥𝗲𝘀𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗰𝗵 𝗔𝘀𝘀𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗻𝘁 to research topics related to home improvement and repair markets, housing preservation and adaptation, disaster recovery and climate resilience, demographics and finances, housing policy, and more. www.jchs.harvard.edu/research-ass...

Happy #MapMonday! Where are mobile homes most vulnerable to flooding? Find out in this interactive map from Headwaters Economics: headwaterseconomics.org/natural-haza.... Mobile homes are key to housing affordability, making these climate risks especially urgent to understand and address.

How important has immigration been for recent state population growth? My new @harvard-jchs.bsky.social blog post has an interactive state map exploring this question: www.jchs.harvard.edu/blog/populat.... The patterns imply that the recent & projected declines will be felt unevenly. #MapMonday

With high interest rates and prices, houses are less affordable than almost any time in recent memory. "The promise of the Sun Belt has often been more affordability... but as that wanes, that could discourage people," says @riordanfrost.bsky.social. www.theatlantic.com/family/2026/...

How the Midwest Became the Place to Move

It’s (mostly) about affordability.

theatlantic.com

Immigration fell sharply in 2025, dragging down US population growth. Census projects that immigration will be even lower in 2026, which would likely result in historically low growth. I explore how this might affect states in a new @harvard-jchs.bsky.social blog www.jchs.harvard.edu/blog/populat...

Household mobility fell to its lowest rate on record in 2024, with just over 1 in 10 households moving. Homeowners drove the decline as they faced high interest rates and home prices, while renter mobility stayed flat. @riordanfrost.bsky.social www.jchs.harvard.edu/blog/househo...

Household Mobility Fell to Record Low in 2024

jchs.harvard.edu

New ACS data show US household mobility hit another record low in 2024, driven by homeowners staying put amid high prices & rates—especially younger owners. In my @harvard-jchs.bsky.social post, I unpack the data and reflect on what may have happened in 2025: www.jchs.harvard.edu/blog/househo...

Happy #MapMonday! In top homebuilding metros, immigrants play a major role in supplying housing. Check out this bubble map (size = building permits, color = foreign-born share of the construction trades) in my latest @harvard-jchs.bsky.social blog: www.jchs.harvard.edu/blog/homebui...

Happy #MapMonday! Rural home prices soared after the pandemic, by 36% in non-metro counties and fully 47% in vacation counties from 2020–2023, per new work from my @harvard-jchs.bsky.social colleagues @aherm.bsky.social & @pjwhit.bsky.social. www.jchs.harvard.edu/blog/home-pr...

Happy #MapMonday! Where are deaths outpacing births? Per @washingtonpost.com, mostly older, whiter counties: www.washingtonpost.com/business/202.... Similar patterns in my @harvard-jchs.bsky.social blog on how migration has offset natural loss in many places: www.jchs.harvard.edu/blog/post-pa....

Column | In these U.S. groups, deaths now exceed births. What’s happening?

The United States is not far from the point where, each winter, deaths will regularly edge out births

washingtonpost.com

Happy #MapMonday! Net migration in rural areas surged during the pandemic—and remains high. In many of these communities, migration is offsetting steep natural loss. See where in the dark green on the map, and read more in my new @harvard-jchs.bsky.social blog: www.jchs.harvard.edu/blog/post-pa....

The @gsd.harvard.edu seeks to appoint a distinguished scholar and/or practitioner with a deep understanding of housing markets, practice, and policy to serve as the Nicolas P. and Joan B. Retsinas Director of the Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies. www.jchs.harvard.edu/nicolas-p-an...

After losing population for much of the 2010s, rural areas have been consistently gaining population in the post-pandemic era, writes @riordanfrost.bsky.social in a new blog. Try the interactive map: www.jchs.harvard.edu/blog/post-pa...

In just five years, the income needed to afford the median-priced home nearly doubled—from $68k to $131k. Getting payments back to 2020 levels would require interest rates to be nearly zero, per @harvard-jchs.bsky.social www.jchs.harvard.edu/blog/lower-i... #FigureFriday #housing #affordability

Happy #MapMonday! How much did each metro area depend on immigration for growth last year, and which ones will therefore feel the effects of the recent slowdown most acutely? Find out in the interactive map in my new @harvard-jchs.bsky.social blog post: www.jchs.harvard.edu/blog/metro-a....

The recent slowdown in immigration has big implications for pop growth in metro areas. My latest @harvard-jchs.bsky.social blog discusses how metros will need to rely instead on (declining) natural growth or (unevenly distributed) domestic migration: www.jchs.harvard.edu/blog/metro-a...

Metro Area Growth at Risk from Recent Drop in Immigration

Population growth in many metropolitan areas is in doubt given the recent steep drop in immigration, which could undercut household growth and housing

jchs.harvard.edu

With high home prices & interest rates, what's a first-time homebuyer to do? Move far afield, according to a @nytimes.com article from this weekend that cites the paper on millennial suburbanization that I co-authored with @airbrycki.bsky.social & Hyojung Lee: www.nytimes.com/2025/08/31/r...

They Couldn’t Afford Homes in the Big City. So They Left.

nytimes.com

New research from @pewtrusts.org finds that new housing slows rent growth most for older, more affordable units, and not allowing more homes to be built—even for high-income residents—pushes up all rents. www.pew.org/en/research-...

New Housing Slows Rent Growth Most for Older, More Affordable Units

The nationwide housing shortage has driven rents up more in low-income neighborhoods than in the U.S. overall, but in areas that have recently added large amounts of housing, rents have fallen the mos...

pew.org

Today's affordability crisis is undercutting tomorrow's homeownership rate. This new paper projects a 1.6pp decline in the HO rate by 2035 on the low end and a 0.8 pp increase on the high end. The low scenario accounts for today's unaffordability by applying historically low HO gains to <35 cohorts.

Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies@harvard-jchs.bsky.social · last yr.

Our new ten-year projections reflect a general slowing of growth in both homeowner and renter households. @dmccue.bsky.social @riordanfrost.bsky.social www.jchs.harvard.edu/blog/decade-...

Why haven’t downtown Boston housing prices appreciated? First, there has been an exodus to the suburbs, even among millennials who once seemed to embrace city life, says @riordanfrost.bsky.social. But now, he says, “more millennials are suburbanizing than not.” www.bostonglobe.com/2025/07/30/b...

Downtown Boston housing prices have stagnated. Here’s what that means for the city. - The Boston Globe

Housing prices in Massachusetts have soared in the last decade but have barely appreciated in parts of downtown. Why build more?

bostonglobe.com

Happy #MapMonday! How much did counties gain/lose from domestic migration in 2024? In my new @harvard-jchs.bsky.social paper, I show that inflows to lower-density places were elevated through 2024. Explore the map: www.datawrapper.de/_/cGxny and the paper: www.jchs.harvard.edu/blog/five-wa...

Happy #MapMonday! Here's a map from my new @harvard-jchs.bsky.social paper on pandemic-era changes in residential mobility! Shifts are emerging in Midwest and Northeast states, while much (but not all) of the Sunbelt keeps drawing more inflows. Explore the map: www.jchs.harvard.edu/blog/five-wa...

Many Americans who left large cities during the pandemic headed to suburbs, small cities, and rural areas. New York had one of the country’s largest net outflows during the pandemic, but the number of people leaving the state is now below prepandemic levels, says @riordanfrost.bsky.social.

The Wall Street Journal@wsj.com · last yr.

Some were called back to the office—others realized their dream locations weren't all they were cracked up to be. Meet the homeowners who relocated during the pandemic, and are on the move again.

Happy #MapMonday! What was the largest source of population growth by county in 2024? Immigration played a *big* role, esp. in higher-density areas. Domestic migration remained elevated in lower-density areas. Natural change played a smaller role. Explore the map: www.datawrapper.de/_/U6L0i/

Happy #MapMonday! What was the largest source of population growth in each county in 2023? Many urban counties relied most on natural change, many Sunbelt counties relied on domestic migration, and immigration played a role throughout the country. Explore the map: datawrapper.dwcdn.net/QrDYw/4/.

Happy #MapMonday! I’ve been thinking about baby boomers aging into older adulthood (61-79 this year), and it is apparent from this median age by county map that the effects of an aging population will be felt unevenly. Explore the map here: datawrapper.dwcdn.net/xFm4W/2/

Happy #MapMonday! Is the draw of the Pacific Northwest over? There was a notable downturn during the pandemic in net inflows in Washington and Oregon, which were previously migration magnets, especially for young adults. These two maps show the slowdown in 26-34yo net inflows b/t 2019 and 2021.