Any half decent system (including phone CPUs) with 64Gb of RAM can do 98% of the actually useful things that LLMs do. Why do you think they’ve bent over backwards to sign bullshit contracts that pretend to tie up the world’s RAM supply?

Apologies for today’s snow, Tokyo folks. Mea culpa, I tempted fate by workshopping spring-themed hanami drinks over the weekend. (“Workshopping” sounds so much better than “went through my drinks shelves concocting an evening of dubious ideas”.)

To play devil's advocate for CRA: poll data show that most Japanese voters consider themselves centrists on the vast majority of issues, primarily valuing stability / competence on valence, pocketbook issues. "The LDP is going off the rails, we're offering continuity" isn't the worst campaign ever.

Paul Nadeau@pauljnadeau.bsky.social · 6mo ago

But seriously a centrist party in coalition with Komeito is just off-brand LDP from Shien and I have no idea who this new alliance is supposed to appeal to

One further thought on this immigration thread. While the proposed cost rises aren't a major issue for most people in relatively high-earning fields like tech / finance, I don't think we should underestimate the impact this "mood music" has on the ability to attract / retain international labour.

Rob Fahey@robfahey.net · 8mo ago

Aside from the obvious populist scapegoating, a striking thing about the government’s stance here is how utterly incoherent it is with the past decade of LDP policy - including that of Takaichi’s icon Abe, who squarely aimed migration policy at shoring up the country’s dwindling workforce.

Aside from the obvious populist scapegoating, a striking thing about the government’s stance here is how utterly incoherent it is with the past decade of LDP policy - including that of Takaichi’s icon Abe, who squarely aimed migration policy at shoring up the country’s dwindling workforce.

Alberto Moreno@amoreno.bsky.social · 8mo ago

In Japan they are considering increasing the cost for applying for a permanent visa to around 1900 USD because "other countries charge more than Japan". It costs 50 USD in Spain, just say clearly that you want all foreigners out of the country, Japanese government.

How does a fringe, anti-vaccine party come to influence national politics? In this insightful article, Romeo Marcantuoni and Robert A. Fahey examine Sanseitō, a Japanese political party founded during the pandemic. www.cambridge.org/core/journal... #Japan #Politics #ConspiracyTheories #APJJF

This was a timely reminder to donate and upgrade to supporting membership. The key point here is that the NSF was trying to attach sweeping, baguely defined conditions not just to how its grant money would be used, but to *all other activities* of the foundation.

Python Software Foundation@python.org · 9mo ago

TLDR; The PSF has made the decision to put our community and our shared diversity, equity, and inclusion values ahead of seeking $1.5M in new revenue. Please read and share. pyfound.blogspot.com/2025/10/NSF-... 🧵

Takaichi wins, with Koizumi falling surprisingly short in the lawmaker votes - he didn't even win all of Hayashi's votes. Probably in part down to lawmakers not wanting to ignore the constituency votes, but also a pretty clear sign of a party running scared of populist challenges from its right.

Takaichi and Koizumi go into a runoff, as expected. Her popularity with the rank and file was key - she won over 40% of membership votes (Koizumi got 28%). Weird upsets do happen in the runoffs, but note that Takaichi didn't even come second in her colleagues' votes - she was third behind Hayashi.

The campaigning for today's LDP leadership election has largely been very dull, enlivened only by Takaichi speed-running the Kemi Badenoch "politics is when you see stuff on Twitter and then make a speech insisting it's true" path to insanity. Most predictions seem to think it's Koizumi's moment.

We're less than two hours from the start of voting for the next LDP leader. I made a little cheat sheet.

Polling for LDP elections can help to show how the wind is blowing, but as Jeff points out, only members get to vote (and are actually very hard to pin-point in polling data so these estimates are always very rough). Plus, the decisive second round is very heavily weighted towards lawmakers’ votes.

Jeffrey J. Hall@mrjeffu.bsky.social · 11mo ago

A new poll asked Japanese their preference for the next leader of the LDP. Takaichi Sanae came in first with 29%. However, it should be noted that when you isolate for LDP supporters, Koizumi Shinjiro beats her 33% to 28%. Non-party members do not vote in the election. news.line.me/detail/oa-yo...

Whoever leads the LDP next needs to balance holding together an increasingly fractured party with building alliances with opposition parties to pass legislation, as well as handling U.S. political instability and tough economic headwinds. Motegi probably ticks a couple of those boxes, at least.

The Japan Times@japantimes.co.jp · 11mo ago

The race to replace Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has kicked off, with LDP heavyweight Toshimitsu Motegi on Monday becoming the first to announce his candidacy, a day after Ishiba said he would step down.

I'd love to know what Suga and Koizumi said to him last night to get him to step down. My guess is that they convinced him that doing so opens a pathway to unite the party's moderates behind a preferred candidate - he's too stubborn to have given in because of threats of withdrawing support etc.

Jesse Johnson@jljzen.bsky.social · 11mo ago

BREAKING: Japanese PM says he has decided to quit 石破首相 総理大臣を辞任する意向を固める | NHK www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/20...

The Substance finally launched in Japan so we went to see it yesterday; between the dubious parables about eternal life backed up by body horror, and the copious amounts of wine we drank afterwards, that’s the most Catholic I’ve felt on a Sunday in quite a while.

Even as Ishiba’s detractors in the LDP furiously sharpen their knives for his back, it’s worth noting that his most defining qualities as a politician - boulder-level stubbornness and willingness to play a very long game - seem to be incredibly well suited to dealing with this Trump admin.

The Japan Times@japantimes.co.jp · last yr.

Japan might be playing the long game with the U.S. in tariff talks, possibly in the hope that mounting domestic pressure will force Trump to give it a better deal.

In Osaka for a few days; didn’t even make it through baggage claim before being hit with a drive-by Myaku-Myaku. (I’m not sure this little freak should be in charge of a vehicle.)

As ever, I am a trendsetter - whereas some millennials have become uncool, I’m waaaay ahead of them since I have never been cool.

The abrupt post-Golden Week transition from sipping wine coolers on a boat in Tokyo Bay to sitting through a morning of Zoom meetings is giving me mental whiplash. I just don’t think, at this age, that I’m meant to live an uncomfortable life, y’know?

Arguably the only silver lining to the Trump admin is that it's probably going to do to right-wing MAGA-esque movements around the world what Brexit did to the nativist stripe of Euroskepticism around the EU.

Matt McDermott@mattmfm.bsky.social · last yr.

The impact of an unpopular American president on a foreign election is stunning. Never seen anything like the seismic political shift Trump triggered in Canada to deliver a stunning Liberal win. Trump’s toxicity is rewriting global politics.

A collection of essays about Japan in the NYT? With an introduction by Pico Iyer of "the REAL Japan is when you make your wife translate everything for you for three decades" fame, you say? A lovely morning of dunking for GaiSky, but I think I'll preserve the remaining shreds of my sanity, thanks.

a man is sitting in a car with a group of women and says `` that 's bait . ''

Alt: Mad Max, sitting in the front of his car, wags his finger disapprovingly and says "That's bait". One often overlooked advantage of the post-apocalyptic hellscape of Mad Max is that the New York Times presumably no longer exists.

media.tenor.com

Process times at the catastrophically understaffed Immigration agency are now so long that renewed / changed visas don’t get issued until months into the renewal extension period (i.e., past the expiry date printed on the residence card) - an extension period banks universally refuse to acknowledge.

The Japan Times@japantimes.co.jp · last yr.

Some banks in Japan have started freezing withdrawals from accounts held by foreign nationals whose visas or residential statuses have expired as part of a government initiative to combat scams and fraud.

People keep saying these policies are out of the Gilded Age, but his statements make more sense if you go back many more centuries and think in terms of tribute, not tariffs. He's dreaming of obsequious courtiers from far-off vassal states coming to lay chests of gold at the feet of the Emperor.

Acyn@acyn.bsky.social · last yr.

Trump: China will now pay a big number to our treasury. This is all taxes. And don't let them keep telling you that this is a tax on our people. I hate that. You know, they say it's a tax. No.

Osaka High Court is the latest to rule that the failure to recognise same-sex marriages under law is unconstitutional. Today's ruling overturns an earlier district court ruling that was one of the only legal losses to date for the equal marriage cases. www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/20...

同性婚認めないのは憲法違反 大阪高裁 2審の違憲判決は5件目 | NHK

【NHK】同性どうしの結婚が認められていないのは憲法に違反するとして、京都府などに住む3組の同性のカップルが国を訴えた裁判で、2審…

www3.nhk.or.jp

The US 2020 Elections - @sjungkunz.bsky.social, @robfahey.net & Airo Hino investigate the dynamics of political violence justification & its connection with populist attitudes & conspiracy beliefs: https://buff.ly/3ZidmeI @polstudiesassoc.bsky.social @uoypolitics.bsky.social #ECRs #polsky

I've been lax in plugging the Waseda podcast, but I particularly enjoyed this discussion with Prof. Liu-Farrer about migration in Asia. We talk about the artificial ideas of "skilled" migration, and how labour flows in Asia impact both sending and receiving nations: www.waseda.jp/top/en/news/...

【Waseda University Podcasts: Rigorous Research, Real Impact】“Rethinking Skilled Migration”

Waseda University released the sixth episode, “Rethinking Skilled Migration”, of its English language podcast series “Rigorous Research, Rea...

waseda.jp

Fought through crashing waves of jet-lag to see Sigourney Weaver’s last night in The Tempest - absolutely worth it! She was wonderful, of course, though the show was thoroughly stolen by the jawdropping set design and by Mason Alexander Park’s fantastically ethereal performance as Ariel.

I’ve been thinking lately that for all the focus on how social media has screwed up the information environment for ordinary people, we can overlook how much it’s also messing up political leaders. Thinking here of Yoon allegedly getting YouTube brain-poisoned into his attempted coup…

Jeffrey J. Hall@mrjeffu.bsky.social · 2y ago

Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba, speaking at an event in Tokyo: "When I read the newspaper, no one praises me, and when I look on the Internet, I just feel sad. I barely have time to sleep..." www.sankei.com/article/2024...

Doing our Christmas dinner on the 26th this year due to awkward midweek timing, but now I keep having momentary panic attacks that it’s Christmas Eve and none of the food prep is in progress. Perhaps I should sample a little of the egg nog to steady the nerves? 🤔