🚨I've launched a new Substack — The Political Economy of AI 🚨 Writing in a personal capacity, I'll be looking at how key principles & assumptions in economics & policy might be reshaped by AI. Please read, subscribe and challenge! open.substack.com/pub/raoulrup...

AI in an open economy: reshaping terms of trade & comparative advantage [Part 1]

What if different countries scale AI at very different speeds?

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It was great to contribute to this. You can read my essay (focused on the practicalities of an abundance agenda in the UK) but more importantly all the other great ones in this edition of Progressive Review. I hope some of these ideas are picked up in HMG.

Carsten Jung@carsjung.bsky.social · 4mo ago

NEW: Should progressives in the UK adopt an 'Abundance' agenda? Is this 'the new third way'? What would such policies actually look like in practice? Lots of thought-provoking essays on these questions in IPPR's latest Progressive Review. Check it out here👇 onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10....

An interesting paper on an underexplored part of Brexit impacts. Broadly confirms what those of us who worked with business on implementation saw first hand. But I think the key point here is the one they make about sunk costs. I think many of these are already in play (not 3-5 years away) (1/4)

The Productivity Institute@productivity.bsky.social · 4mo ago

New TPI research shows that Brexit redirected £22bn of UK outward investment and over 100k jobs into the EU from 2016-2019 This was driven by regulatory friction, not tariffs. The message: deeper UK–EU regulatory cooperation matters. Full findings: www.productivity.ac.uk/research/cer...

🚨New report from us BCG CfG today🚨 we take a sector & firm view of UK productivity growth over past 3 decades, including benchmarking against peers. UK is falling back from global frontier but for quite different reasons in different sectors 1/

We think (happy to be corrected) this is the broadest & deepest study of its kind, building on existing academic work. We take a longer timeline & a wider set of different types of infra as well as a larger country group than ever before. For those interested in the modelling approach, details below

Raoul Ruparel@rruparel.bsky.social · 6mo ago

🚨New report from us @BCG 🚨. We look at 7 types of infrastructure across 92 countries over 30 years to understand their economic benefits. Key message: a +5% increase in infrastructure stock is associated with +0.3 to +0.45pp higher long-run GDP growth. This is huge... 1/ www.bcg.com/publications...

🚨New report from us @BCG 🚨. We look at 7 types of infrastructure across 92 countries over 30 years to understand their economic benefits. Key message: a +5% increase in infrastructure stock is associated with +0.3 to +0.45pp higher long-run GDP growth. This is huge... 1/ www.bcg.com/publications...

Infrastructure Investment in an Uncertain World

This comprehensive analysis of infrastructure shows what works and what doesn’t. Success depends on choosing the right projects and delivering them effectively.

bcg.com

Good piece, well worth a read. The gap between reality & rhetoric remains large. I suspect part of the problem is that if you put to many leaders of middle powers that they should adopt a principled and pragmatic approach, most would argue that they already are!

Alan Beattie@alanbeattie.bsky.social · 7mo ago

My Trade Secrets today. Mark Carney’s speech: nice truth bomb even if not totally original. But the middle powers finding a new way to run the world requires a massive shift in political will which Carney’s Canada itself has had trouble making.

🚨New research🚨 out today from us at BCG Centre for Growth – looking at how the UK can unlock further value from healthcare innovation. As it stands, we leave significant value (£78bn) on the table, growing behind Italy & Spain in some health subsectors 1/ www.bcg.com/publications...

Innovation for Impact: Unlocking the Potential of the UK’s Healthcare Ecosystem

Harnessing the UK’s healthcare innovation potential could add billions to GDP and improve patient outcomes. What actions are needed to deliver this?

bcg.com

Ironically during the original negotiations it was the EU (especially France and Macron) that wanted to keep defence more separate. He regularly told us - we can have a great relationship on defence etc but on Brexit & trade it will be painful. As Martin says, it's not that simple...(1/3)

If Europe is serious about rearming, it needs to build a true common market in defence which includes the UK. on.ft.com/4jelRzZ

This is an interesting (& somewhat crazy chart) from the OECD Global Dept Report out today. Huge amounts of additional borrowing from corporates not shifting the dial on investment. www.oecd.org/en/publicati...

Agreed with Jill on this. One budget would make sense, just look at the swings in UK borrowing costs we've seen this year. I can though understand the case for two budgets. What I really can't see the case for is one budget with two separate forecasts per year. Always a terrible idea.

Jill Rutter@jillongovt.bsky.social · last yr.

Good and sensible advice from HMT. What other countries do. Constantly chasing OBR forecast has led to higher debt and exacerbated mess of tax system. Rachel Reeves should note forecast, note extreme uncertainties and say she will ensure she meets her fiscal rules at her one and only Budget.

In this work we have (for 1st time?!) estimated share of UK announced infrastructure projects that never go ahead - 37%!! Based on data from 2010-15, 16% of announced projects get scrapped while a further 21% get stuck in planning/preconstruction stage for over a decade.

Raoul Ruparel@rruparel.bsky.social · last yr.

🚨New research🚨 out today from us at BCG Centre for Growth – based on current project pipeline next 5 years could see £700-£900bn invested across 8 key sectors. This is 2.1x-2.7x level in past 5 years. Huge opportunity for the UK. But... 1/ www.bcg.com/united-kingd...

This is a superb report and thread. If we want a playbook for how to do this, it is in our own history. From 1947 to 1979 the British state successfully coordinated a gargantuan programme of infrastructure development (water, gas, electricity) and housebuilding.

Raoul Ruparel@rruparel.bsky.social · last yr.

🚨New research🚨 out today from us at BCG Centre for Growth – based on current project pipeline next 5 years could see £700-£900bn invested across 8 key sectors. This is 2.1x-2.7x level in past 5 years. Huge opportunity for the UK. But... 1/ www.bcg.com/united-kingd...

🚨New research🚨 out today from us at BCG Centre for Growth – based on current project pipeline next 5 years could see £700-£900bn invested across 8 key sectors. This is 2.1x-2.7x level in past 5 years. Huge opportunity for the UK. But... 1/ www.bcg.com/united-kingd...

Finally made the move over from the other place! Starting off with a recent piece I wrote about what the Chancellor needs to do to deliver on growth ambitions. A big part is, focus on delivery & implementation (often the hardest things in govt) (1/2) www.linkedin.com/pulse/easier...

Easier Said Than Done: How the Chancellor Can Deliver on UK Infrastructure and Growth Ambitions

The first job of Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ speech on 29 January was to demonstrate that this government is serious about growth and set a positive way forward for the UK economy. On this, she clearly ...

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bsky.app/profile/rrup... Anyone interested in growth, politics, the EU and much more should follow Raoul