🛑 Update on public opinion in Russia. We document a steady decline in approval of Vladimir Putin from roughly April through July -- consistent with polling data from other sources, including FOM and VTsIOM (meduza.io/en/news/2026...) 1/

It's been two years since Yevgeny Prigozhin's mutiny of June 23, 2023. Looking back on survey data from around the event, we saw public approval of the MOD decline in early May 2023 (presumably as a result of Prigozhin's public criticism). 1/

Interestingly, we observed a notable drop in Putin approval within our daily surveys of the Russian public during the month of October. Given that Putin approval has been highly stable for years, per our data, this may be a notable finding. Any ideas as to what may underly this shift?

In Russia, approval of Trump increased significantly leading up to and after the “Alaska Summit.” But in the past month, disapproval has crept back up to the level it was when Trump took office.

Russia Watcher@russiawatcher.bsky.social · last yr.

How has Russian public opinion shifted in the wake of the "Alaska Summit," which took place on August 15. One notable change: approval of Donald Trump has increased considerably from its all-time low at the beginning of the month.

As talk of negotiations continues, ordinary Russians remain uncompromising. Around 40% say that troops should withdraw only after annexing part of Ukraine & regime change (i.e., ousting Zelensky). Only 10% support an unconditional, immediate withdrawal.

Russia Watcher@russiawatcher.bsky.social · last yr.

But this doesn't mean Russians are willing to give up much. Our data show that as approval for negotiations has been going up, willingness to compromise has been going down: the % who say they want to annex part of Ukraine & achieve regime change has grown since February 2025. 4/

How has Russian public opinion shifted in the wake of the "Alaska Summit," which took place on August 15. One notable change: approval of Donald Trump has increased considerably from its all-time low at the beginning of the month.

Just two days before the Trump-Putin meeting in Alaska, disapproval of Trump has reached its peak in Russia, with nearly 40% of Russians saying they strongly disapprove of him and another 25% saying they somewhat disapprove. 1/

Russia Watcher@russiawatcher.bsky.social · last yr.

Trump’s rating in Russia just keeps going down… this is the lowest approval rating we’ve ever recorded as part of Russia Watcher. (We started tracking this stat daily in April 2024.)

Trump’s rating in Russia just keeps going down… this is the lowest approval rating we’ve ever recorded as part of Russia Watcher. (We started tracking this stat daily in April 2024.)

Russia Watcher@russiawatcher.bsky.social · last yr.

Approval of Donald Trump among Russians is now at the lowest level since fall 2024. After major upticks in approval in early February and early May, approval of the US president has been steadily eroding. Now, around 60% of our respondents say they disapprove of Trump, and only about 20% approve.

Approval of Donald Trump among Russians is now at the lowest level since fall 2024. After major upticks in approval in early February and early May, approval of the US president has been steadily eroding. Now, around 60% of our respondents say they disapprove of Trump, and only about 20% approve.

How do Russians view the economic effects of the war against 🇺🇦? On the one hand, people have become increasingly dissatisfied w/ their personal financial situations in the last 2 months. On the other hand, worry about the economic consequences of the war hasn't changed much.

Approval of negotiations continues to grow in Russia, while self-reported support for the war ('special military operation') remains high and stable.

Despite Vladimir Putin's apparent hesitation to negotiate with Ukraine, approval of negotiations toward a ceasefire are at an all-time high in Russia. Over 30% of our respondents in Russia express strong support and ~25% express weak support. 1/

Support for the war in Ukraine remained fairly steady over the past 6 months, also we did see what may be a slight downturn in early May.

For the third year in a row, we asked our Russian respondents how great a contribution various Allied countries made to victory in WWII. Results have been fairly stable. What's striking is how the vast majority of Russians perceive contributions of other Allies as relatively minor.

Striking increase in approval of negotiations in Russia over the past few weeks: well over 50% now favor negotiations, with a plurality expressing strong support. Uncertainty has declined markedly.

Until now there's been little movement in 🇷🇺 beliefs abt how successful the "special military operation" is. But in early February, we saw a slight uptick in % of respondents who "strongly agree" that SMO is being conducted successfully. In the last few days we saw an increase in success perceptions.

Approval of Donald Trump in Russia has been climbing since the US president's inauguration in late January. When Trump took office a plurality of Russians (>30%) said they "strongly disapprove" of his actions. Now strong disapproval is only ~20% of respondents. 1/

What do Russians think aout negotiations? Unlike support for the war in Ukraine, which has been high & fairly stable since 2022, we have observed substantial shifts in support for negotiations. Since early February 2025, support has increased quite a lot - but seems to have dropped in recent days.

Finally got a 🔵☁️ account for our Russia Watcher project: @russiawatcher.bsky.social Please give it a follow to see data from our daily online surveys conducted in 🇷🇺. @grigopop.bsky.social @laurahowells.bsky.social

Russia Watcher@russiawatcher.bsky.social · last yr.

Today Putin signed a decree ordering 160k men for military service. Conscription happens 2x/ yr but this is largest drive in >10 yrs, per @kyivindependent.com. We don't have recent data abt regular conscription but we do ask about general/full mobilization, which remains unpopular.

Today Putin signed a decree ordering 160k men for military service. Conscription happens 2x/ yr but this is largest drive in >10 yrs, per @kyivindependent.com. We don't have recent data abt regular conscription but we do ask about general/full mobilization, which remains unpopular.