This gets said in almost every close election. Primary polls are notoriously messy and are often not done by anyone who can actually field a poll. You're basically using some El-sayed internals and a couple of low end polls to declare the entire industry dead.

Charles Gaba ✡️@charlesgaba.com · 12h ago

Speaking of which, the margin is now down to less than 26,000 votes, or less than 2%. Regardless of who ultimately wins, it's safe to say that the entire polling industry looks like a bunch of jackasses right now.

lmao my man u should get cancer and compare it to 40 years ago

Revan@revan.eurosky.social · 15h ago

So this is basically one of the entry points to becoming a reactionary

But from your friendly poll plane who does actually want Democrats to win in Michigan, do not read anything into the general from the primary composition.

i want to point out, for those of you are interested, why i don't dive into these arguments past like a post or two is because you can read how qualified they get. "Well, this election is x and y and z and I'd love to see <thing that proves a negative to my incredibly specific take>"

There's like a giant pile of literature and takes by multiple polling aggregators that you follow that all lead to the same thing, which is that primary turnout has literally 0 good correlation with general turnout. These takes are really painful.

Joshua B. Hoe@joshuabhoe.bsky.social · 14h ago

Perry Johnson spent $30 million on ads and is getting trounced, but not in the same numbers....Will Mike Rogers be responsible for driving huge turnout in the midterms by himself (if people aren't excited for James)? Not betting on it

Wouldn't read much into turnout numbers of a competitive primary vs. A completely uncompetitive one.

Joshua B. Hoe@joshuabhoe.bsky.social · 16h ago

One thing people should notice, Dems are turning out in almost 2X the numbers of GOP in Michigan so far for this

They aren't. Primary polling has catastrophic Moes and should be ignored.

Nathan Goldwag @goldwagnathan.bsky.social · 15h ago

Mu current assumption is that all races, regardless of geography or context, are secretly tied.

As of this point I do not think there has been a public poll released that shows Paxton winning or even tied.

Texas: A new survey finds the U.S. Senate race a toss-up. (Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center at Texas Southern University) www.jordanresearchcenter.org

Always has been.

Ohio is, and I cannot stress this enough, a mistake.

The Ohio GOP is -really- doing it's best to test the boundaries of how much "This is a pretty red state now" can actually get you over the line.

I gotta admit that the response to Cornyn and Tillis is amusing. Republican partisans acting like Republican partisans after extracting a pound of flesh for being betrayed, news at 11.

One of the reasons scandals are so dangerous is the day-of vote. If the first thing about a candidate you google is "Accused of doing something terrible with women" then that's literally the first impression of them and it makes you faarrr less likely to vote for them

*tapping the "people who decide most elections pay no attention until the day of" sign.*

Schnorkles O'Bork@schnorkles.bsky.social · yesterday

I think people wildly over-estimate the affect of political views versus team politics, current material conditions, and simple things like "are they a sex pest"

The polling in Michigan is pretty bad for Stevens. Polling in Michigan isn't as dire as it used to be, they've standardized a lot of things that used to be massive messes pre 2020, but still, polling primaries has a very high MoE. That said, El-Sayed has to be viewed as the favorite rn.

Rijji@whyisanything.bsky.social · yesterday

But like i remember hearing Sunday that a Stevens internal group told her that she has no path left to winning the primary with the shape of early voting and the polls

I think people doomsaying El-Sayed are kind of stupid on this here website, he's not loony enough to run more than a point or two behind a more centrist candidate and the environment will more than make up for that. I think they're also idiots for calling Stevens the anti-christ.

Dana Houle@danahoule.bsky.social · 2d ago

I kinda think El-Sayed will win, but it’s a total guess, I have no confidence that’s correct. But here’s a prediction I make with great confidence: If Stevens wins narrowly, & it’s in part because she dominated w Black voters, this place is going to get real ugly.

whoopsie doodle

Sky Marchini@sky.skymarchini.net · yesterday

"US has used 'virtually all' PrSM and ATACM munitions" we are out of ammo www.reuters.com/world/us-has...

The thing is I think the reflecting pool isn't one of Trumps just random lies asides whatever. He seems to honestly believe it was vandalized.

Lmao. Yeess

Coach Finstock@coachfinstock.bsky.social · 2d ago

Oh shit she got the white "pack up your shit" box

lol he's gonna fire Pirro

These jerks who I started bombing won't treat me right!!

The president, is, as they say, an idiot.

Ivan the K ™@ivanthek.bsky.social · 2d ago

Heh.

YOU - I don't want to get better -- I want to get worse.

Possibly the greatest single male athletic performance of all time Original post

UKTMO reporting and explosion 20 nm north of oman lmao

at this point they should be plinking a single oil barge with a drone every time he posts something false.

FinTwitter@fintwitter.bsky.social · 3d ago

IRAN DENIES TRUMP'S CLAIM ON A STRAIT OF HORMUZ AGREEMENT AND REJECTS HIS ASSERTION THAT IRAN REQUESTED A HALT TO THE PLANNED ATTACK - TBS

Yeah, one of the dangers of how good medicine has gotten is it obfuscates the reality that there are certain stressors on the system that cause massive problems and we can't just wave a magic wand to fix them.

Ordinary Rendition@renderjudgment.bsky.social · 3d ago

I think most people wildly underestimate how fine-tuned modern medicine is, as a result of experience and research, and "here's a new virus that can kill within days that we have neither experience with nor research on" is a pretty big curveball to hit.

Also the Dodgers trading for Skubal and not even touching their best prospects (but still providing what may not be a slam dunk, but is significant value for a rental) is kind of a sign of how much of a juggernaut that team is.

THINGS ALLOWED TO BE ANXIOUS WHEN THEY HAVE UNEXPRESSED THOUGHTS - infants - cocker spaniels - your buddy Craig who works at 7-11 and is high all the time THINGS NOT ALLOWED TO BE ANXIOUS - people who can launch nuclear weaponry

Aaron Rupar@atrupar.com · 3d ago

Sen. John Kennedy on Trump's blatant reflecting pool lies: "The president says it was caused by vandals. I don't know if he really believes that or it's part of his political messaging or he's just thinking out loud ... he grows anxious when he has an unexpressed thought."