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Shamubeel Eaqub

@seaqub.bsky.social

Economist, based in NZ. Co-author of “Generation Rent”, author of “Growing Apart” aka “zombie town”. Musings on NZ economy. More about me at https://www.eaqub.com/

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Shamubeel Eaqub@seaqub.bsky.social · 2y ago

GDP data for Dec-23 confirmed what we knew for over a year - NZ is in recession. The economy is about making more people better off. We're doing the more people bit, not the better off bit. GDP per capita has been falling since a peak in Sep-22.

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Shamubeel Eaqub@seaqub.bsky.social · 3y ago

NZ house building surge is over? Planning rules, infrastructure and low interest rates (not necessarily in that order) really helped during the covid years. Rising immigration/population growth and slowing supply will increase housing costs and housing insecurity.

Chart shows dwelling consents relative to population. Rate of consents surged during the covid years, but has fallen since then.
Shamubeel Eaqub@seaqub.bsky.social · 3y ago

Food price inflation is still very high (up 8% over the past year) but moderating in line with broader global agriculture commodity price trends from nearly a year ago. Some local effects too with cyclones and weather increasing fresh fruit and veg prices. Lags in the economy are very long.

Chart shows NZ food price inflation broadly follows global agriculture commodity prices with a 9 month lag. On this basis food prices should be flat to down in coming months.
Shamubeel Eaqub@seaqub.bsky.social · 3y ago

In prep for an interview, Australia has a more progressive income tax regime than NZ. It has a 0% tax rate threshold for the first $18.2k and the top tax rate of 45% kicks in at $180k.

Chart shows NZ tax brackets now, proposed by National, and against Australia. Embarrassingly, Australia has a far more progressive income tax regime than NZ. Low income earners pay a lot less and higher income earners pay more.
Shamubeel Eaqub@seaqub.bsky.social · 3y ago

Impressed at how well set up Kirikiriroa-Hamilton is for playgrounds. My kids loving the variety and quality. Highlights for them. Food’s been smashing too so far: Gothenburg, Edo and madam woo (the fish special was so great). Jet boating on Waikato river was a lot of fun!