it’s me, aubrey plaza accord

@sellingtheta.bsky.social

markets // late 90s, early 00s reference maker // Arsenal FC 📍DC

I came to DC in 2004 to work for [redacted]. i walked by the White House almost every morning. often there’d be multiple men on the roof with rifles. W would push that color terrorist alert thing to orange and red. one day a small plane got lost, flew too close to the capitol, and we got alerts

when I read nonfiction, even if I’m not fully engaged I always finish because I can learn something. when I’m not into a fiction book I give up easily because, well, what’s the point? I started Shadow Ticket by Pynchon, and I find it rambling and disjointed, and I’m just not interested

given it’s only a few hours since a hike became a near certainty…but with stocks quite a bit higher, does that provide any evidence that they’ve to go more than just Sep? I mean, it’s not like oil and long rates are giving up what they’ve gained the last few days

re-upping this. raising rates is warranted because to get inflation lower because you need to hit tech stocks and slow AI spend (and obviously those 2 are tied together). “but hiking won’t lower the price of oil!” US equities have gained $30 trillion in market cap since the beginning of 2023

it’s me, aubrey plaza accord @sellingtheta.bsky.social · 2mo ago

an underrated reason inflation cooled significantly in 2023 is we had a bear market the year before. if we had a similar 10-12 month bear market inflation would probably be at target again. issue is I don’t think we can have a non economic disruption bear market this time

vols smashed on oil, long end rates lower. doesn’t care about a hike. dispersion kept market/vols quiet on red the last few days. and now everything rips higher (except AAPL because the market doesn’t need it). yammer all you want about the macro, but rotational mechanics won’t be denied