Sertalp B. Çay

@sertalpbilal.com

Co-founder and Chair of @solioanalytics.com Principal Operations Research Specialist at SAS Institute. Optimization and sports analytics enthusiast https://sertalpbilal.com https://solioanalytics.com

Team value in FPL has never been less important than right now. In previous seasons, you could consistently expect around 0.30 to 0.35 extra projected points per gw per 1mill of budget (peaking as high as ~0.42 at the start of the 22/23 season). Currently it is around ~0.17

Caption reads: "FPL value-for-money"
"Calculated using SOlio projections in GW22 of the 2025/26 season"

A line graph showing the change in "Optimised projected points per gameweek for the next 10gws" over increase in "starting budget"

I calculated a soccer-specific chess rating for 4,400 online games between ~100 players' accounts Top 10: 1. Marten de Roon 2. Yussuf Poulsen 3. Antonee Robinson 4. Stefan de Vrij 5. Borna Sosa 6. Christian Pulisic 7. Michael Olise 8. Kevin Prince Boateng 9. N'Golo Kante 10. Josip Stanisic

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💹 PL Matchups - First Look | GW17 Sharp market projections for the next round of PL fixtures: goals & CS%, teams to target and WDL odds 👇

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📊 #FPL Defender DEFCON vs xGC tiers | GW1-9 As requested, a look at which defenders have best balanced: 🛡️ Clean sheet potential (team xGC p90) 🛡️ DEFCON bonus potential (CBIT p90) Converted using a Poisson-based model to map out equivalent points tiers🤓😅

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💹 PL Matchups - First Look | GW9 Sharp market projections for this weekend’s PL fixtures: goals & CS%, WDL odds & teams to target 👇

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📊 GW6: Solio projected #FPL points and picks A look at some of the top projected GW6 players from our live @SolioAnalytics model after today's press conferences - & an example 'free hit' team 👇 Triple Everton, Spurs & City and double Utd! Model will update until deadline

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💹📊 Projected team goals and CS odds | GW6–19 From sharp betting markets & our @solioanalytics.com market-derived model Extended the usual 6GW horizon to the season's halfway mark - hopefully useful for chip planning. Later GW for guidance only, plenty will change!

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💹 PL GW6 matchups A first look at sharp market projections for this weekend’s PL fixtures: projected goals & CS%, teams to target & WDL odds 👇 📉 Through GW1-6, markets have projected ~20 fewer PL goals compared to this time last season

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With Ange Postecoglou set to take over at Forest, we went back to look at some DEFCON data from his Spurs spell His high line + pressing style generally created more DEFCON chances for opponents than for his own players 👇

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Bruno has split time between deep & advanced midfield roles in Amorim’s 3-4-2-1 We re-scored his Amorim-era #FPL pts with the new DEFCON bonus & compared his data when starting in different roles So far, not much evidence that he struggles when deeper 👇

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