Buying $QQQ at the close on June 22nd and forward 2-week and 1-month returns. $NDX $SPY $TQQQ

S&P 100 $OEX A/D Line Bull Flag maintains unless lower-low. $SPX $SPY $QQQ $MAGS

Just eclipsed the amount of new stock supply overhead relative to 2021 and 2nd most in history relative to any calendar year since 1970. $SPY $QQQ $MU $IWM $SPCX

Fundstrat's Tom Lee, contradicting his 10-15% correction call for Summer 2026. $SPX $SPY. $QQQ

Absent deep/protracted recession, based on Chairman Warsh's guarantee "we will get back to the target rate by 2028", this proves mathematically/historically improbable. CPI would need to avg -.12% M/M over forward 18-mnth period, which has never happened before. Only 2 recessions had deflation.

It really isn't debatable. The Fed chairman's chief role is to keep inflation expectations well-anchored. The markets response to Warsh's 1st press conference was to ratchet up inflation expectations by 3bps (chart 1 and 2, 5 days apart). Definition of misstep? @carlquintanilla.bsky.social

Nasdaq is running much closer to its Cycle Composite price path than any other index, to-date. $QQQ $NDX $COMPQ $SPX $SPY $DIA

Officially, the only chart that matters!! New all-time high for NYSE A/D Line $SPX $SPY $IWM $NYA $QQQ $DIA $NDX

BofA's Savita Subramanian: Reiterating year-end $SPX 7,100 as multiples continue to progress with inflation heating up further. $SPY $XLE

Does it have to be THE bottom? NO! The Bitcoin $IBIT ETF has its lowest RSI in history on an outsized volume candle this past week. Last time we saw this there was A bottom and significant rally. $BTC $BITX $ETH

Imagine predicting this move no more than 48 hours ago, having no followers and no engagements. Eh,... that's why they call it alpha. Be where they're not! $SPX $SPY $QQQ $NDX

3-month implied correlation at a 5-yr low, evidences both the lack of dispersion and complacency in markets. Small bounce with broad markt pullback yesterday. $SPX $QQQ $SPY $VIX $IWM $DIA $SMH

As detailed in this weekends macro-market Research Report: “… if the S&P 500 does find a new all-time high in the month of June, as evidenced in the table above, the month of June has never proven the peak for the calendar year, NEVER!!” $SPX $SPY $VOO $QQQ $DIA $AAPL $NVDA $AMZN $MSFT

Hedge funds appear pessimistic, as measured by Commitment of Trader data. These are historically the best levels of pessimism for annualized $SPX returns, averaging nearly 17% over the forward 12-month period. $SPY $QQQ $DIA

As I had written into this past weekend's macro-market Research Report at Finom Group... $NVDA "...continue to buy the dip... price target objective $280 ..." $SPY $QQQ

I don't do many YouTube podcasts throughout the year, so catch-up when I do. Check out where I consider markets traveling in June and 2H 20206. $SPX $SPY $QQQ $VIX www.youtube.com/watch?v=7xxZ...

Rare Streak For Markets Can And Likely Continues

YouTube video by Finom Group

youtube.com

I have written before and will defend throughout: Economically benefiting from the fear of black swans is far more profitable, and far more reliable, than trying to predict what will make the crowd panic next. The latter is nearly impossible. The former is closest to structural.

Over trailing 2-month period, $SPX has only traded below 10-DMA 1 trading day. Last time this occurred was late 2023. Relentless rally continued through 1st half of 2024. Before that, 2 occurrences in 2010. Of the 3 prior occurrences, markets were higher 6, 9, and 12 months forward. $QQQ $IWM $VIX

Tell me more about this weak labor market?

Broad market rallies don't typically end with S&P 600 (small-caps) A/D Line making an ATH. Just shy of that entering Friday's trading session. Narrow breadth; me thinks not! $SML $SPX $SPY $IWM $QQQ

Equity only P/C Ratio at 52-week low, and a more historically low level associated with complacency and pullbacks in the market. $SPX $SPY $QQQ $VIX $DIA

$AAPL is currently on a 9-week winning streak!!! Historically, after prior 9-week streaks, Apple averaged a +7.5% return over the next month and beat the $SPX 80% of the time. $SPY $XLK $META $GOOGL $MAGS

S&P 500 positive for 9 consecutive weeks with a record of 18%+ gains. Bears can point out that $SPX was down 9 of 10 times three days later. But bulls can say, SPX positive 9 of 10 times 4 weeks later with a +1.6% median gain. Pick your side! $SPY Only other midterm year w/9-week win streak 1958

2 more days to complete the first 100 trading days of 2026. When S&P 500 gained 8%+ in first 100 days, rest of year was positive 21 of 24 times with median 11.5% gain. $SPX $SPY $QQQ $IWM

S&P 500 nearly 10% above 200DMA, often a precursor of past pullbacks and/or corrective periods. $SPX $SPY $QQQ $NDX $SMH

Looking good, but looking good often leads to some form of consolidation. Knowing that it was looking good, however, tells you how to engage that consolidation when it comes to pass. Breadth leads price both up, and down! More inside my weekend report! $SPX $SPY $NYA $QQQ $IWM $NDX

2 more days to complete the first 100 trading days of 2026. When S&P 500 gained 8%+ in first 100 days, rest of year was positive 21 of 24 times with median 11.5% gain. $SPX $SPY $QQQ $IWM

Helpful reminder as to why $SPX EPS is accelerating, as real GDP seems to be decelerating. The fact has been and remains, market prices Nominal GDP, which continues to accelerate. Not a matter of liking how it is being achieved, but that it is being achieved. $SPY $QQQ

$IGV extends from bullish pattern highlighted over the last several weeks. Has remained above key 87–88 resistance zone, which had repeatedly capped rallies since Feb. Need to see continued buy interest. 104-upside target remains in play. Continued constructive digestion above the breakout zone $SPY

That’s my BOYYYY! No spotter, next step!