Seth Axen 🪓

@sethaxen.com

Empowering scientists with machine learning @mlcolab.org. Sometimes #Bayesian. Usually #FOSS. Often in #JuliaLang. Expat: 🇺🇸 ➡️ 🇩🇪 💼 On the job market (remote/southwest Germany) sethaxen.com

I don't post here very often, so I think it's worth checking in here to note that since I wrote this, I've transitioned to a heavy agent-based dev workflow. Partially that's due to a huge improvement in the models, partially due to some useful skills/harnesses.

Seth Axen 🪓@sethaxen.com · 6mo ago

Yes there are dozens of tasks throughout the day that I can accomplish much faster with AI, but these are usually sporadic and non-routine. Building a whole set of agents to manage these would then become its own large task with little concrete benefit that I can see.

Anyone aware of a collection of agent skills tailored towards FOSS workflows for package development and maintenance? Strongly considering writing my own.

If you have been using LOO-PIT, this is a must read for you! @herman-tesso.bsky.social has done excellent work with this paper! Thanks for @florencebockting.bsky.social and @aloctavodia.bsky.social for getting this to bayesplot and ArviZ. I'll notify when I have my casestudies updated with this

Herman@herman-tesso.bsky.social · 5mo ago

If you have been using LOO-PIT, this is a must read for you; "LOO-PIT predictive model checking" by me and @avehtari.bsky.social , doi.org/10.48550/arX.... 1/4

Title: LOO-PIT predictive  model checking , 

Authors: Herman Tesso and Aki Vehtari , 

Abstract: We consider predictive checking for Bayesian model assessment using leave-one-out
probability integral transform (LOO-PIT). LOO-PIT values are conditional cumulative predictive
probabilities given LOO predictive distributions and corresponding left out observations. For a
well-calibrated model, LOO-PIT values should be near uniformly distributed, but in the finite sample
case they are not independent, due to LOO predictive distributions being determined by nearly the
same data (all but one observation). We prove that this dependency is non-negligible in the finite
case and depends on model complexity. We propose three testing procedures that can be used for
continuous and discrete dependent uniform values. We also propose an automated graphical method
for visualizing local departures from the null. Extensive numerical experiments on simulated and real
datasets demonstrate that the proposed tests achieve competitive performance overall and have much
higher power than standard uniformity tests based on the independence assumption that inevitably
lead to lower than expected rejection rate

I've been seeing some folks recently explain how they're using agent-based workflows to help manage their life/work. I think it's great that people are sharing this and probably super useful for some. But I still haven't seen a use case that would be helpful for me.

Finally got around to trying out @typst.app, and I'm really surprised how easy the learning curve coming from TeX has been! I'm still not convinced it has all of the features I would want to replace TeX for papers, but it might replace my current TeX-in-MD derivation workflow.

We figured out flow matching over states that change dimension. With "Branching Flows", the model decides how big things must be! This works wherever flow matching works, with discrete, continuous, and manifold states. We think this will unlock some genuinely new capabilities.

Fisher meets Feynman! 🤝 We use score matching and a trick from quantum field theory to make a product-of-experts family both expressive and efficient for variational inference. To appear as a spotlight @ NeurIPS 2025. #NeurIPS2025 (link below)

Fisher meets Feynman: score-based variational inference with a product of experts

Yesterday I asked the 7-year-old how he would describe what I do for work. His response: "You do math all day, get paid for no reason, and print things."

MC Stan is here! Follow for the latest Stan news, and tag if you want us to repost your posts about new papers, packages, courses, etc. about Stan

From hackathon to release: sbi v0.25 is here! 🎉 What happens when dozens of SBI researchers and practitioners collaborate for a week? New inference methods, new documentation, lots of new embedding networks, a bridge to pyro and a bridge between flow matching and score-based methods 🤯 1/7 🧵

Fun read of their amazing contributions to the SBI hackathon! 🥐 The SBI-Pyro bridge that @sethaxen.com built has a lot of potential I believe. I'll actually be presenting this work at @euroscipy.bsky.social this Wednesday - excited to share this with a broader audience. euroscipy.org/talks/KCYYTF/

Pyro Meets SBI: Unlocking Hierarchical Bayesian Inference for Complex Simulators

The EuroSciPy meeting is a cross-disciplinary gathering focused on the use and development of the Python language in scientific research.

euroscipy.org

Seth Axen 🪓@sethaxen.com · last yr.

Sharing this here a bit late, but @vstaros.bsky.social and I wrote a little something about our experience contributing to the @sbi-devs.bsky.social (simulation-based inference) hackathon. @mlcolab.org @mackelab.bsky.social We were obviously very hungry while writing.