The absence of spillovers from higher energy prices into broader inflation explains why central banks remain cautious. open.substack.com/pub/gerlachm...
Why Central Banks Aren’t Raising Rates
Short comment
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Stefan Gerlach
@sgerlach.bsky.social
Chief Economist of EFG Bank in Zurich; ex-Deputy Governor, Central Bank of Ireland; ex-Executive Director, HKMA; ex-BIS and ex-Prof at Goethe University and Brandeis University. (Views expressed are my own.) Substack: https://swissmacro.substack.com
To understand Norwegian monetary policy, it pays to understand Norges Bank’s monetary policy framework. open.substack.com/pub/gerlachm...
Norges Bank: The Monetary Policy Framework
(Formerly Swiss Macro and History)
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Singapore's economy has remained remarkably resilient since the MAS tightened policy in April. The upcoming policy meeting will show how policymakers now assess the balance of inflation and growth risks. open.substack.com/pub/gerlachm...
Singapore: Three Months After April’s Tightening
(Formerly Swiss Macro and History)
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In today’s post, I discuss the ECB’s accounts of its monetary policy meetings and consider how they could be made more effective. open.substack.com/pub/gerlachm...
Why the ECB's Monetary Policy Accounts Should Be Much Shorter
(Formerly Swiss Macro and History)
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Yesterday the SNB published the summary from its policy meeting in June. If you are interested in Swiss monetary policy, these are very good reads -- informative and to the point. open.substack.com/pub/gerlachm...
The SNB's June Monetary Policy Assessment
(Formerly Swiss Macro and History)
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Is the ECB practising opportunistic disinflation? If inflation is only modestly above target, weak growth and high public debt may argue for patience rather than aggressive tightening. open.substack.com/pub/gerlachm...
Is the ECB Practising Opportunistic Disinflation?
(Formerly Swiss Macro and History)
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Central bank independence was only part of the Bank of England’s success in 1997. Equally important was the extraordinary calibre of the MPC. open.substack.com/pub/gerlachm...
The Bank of England's MPC Is Not What It Used to Be
Formerly Swiss Macro and History
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Markets are overestimating Kevin Warsh's influence on the Federal Reserve. Fed chairs gain influence by persuading colleagues, not directing them. And if the Chair communicates less, regional Fed presidents will fill the vacuum. open.substack.com/pub/swissmac...
Markets Are Overestimating Kevin Warsh's Influence
Many investors believe that Kevin Warsh will quickly reshape the Federal Reserve.
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“On Wednesday, [Warsh] said markets had come to rely on central bankers’ guidance to such an extent that it created an echo chamber in which prices were more likely to reflect the Fed’s views than investors’.” And why is that a problem? www.ft.com/content/6a93...
Kevin Warsh’s push to axe Fed guidance may lift US borrowing costs, investors warn
Traders see more volatility ahead as new central bank chair declines to give dot plot on future path of interest rates
ft.com
The Riksbank announces its policy decision on Wednesday. The policy rate will almost certainly remain unchanged at 1.75%. open.substack.com/pub/swissmac...
This Week's Riksbank Decision: The Story Is Not the Rate
The Riksbank announces its policy decision on Wednesday.
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My thoughts on the SNB and this week’s policy meeting. open.substack.com/pub/swissmac...
The SNB's Next Challenge is Disinflation
The SNB is almost certain to leave interest rates unchanged at 0% on June 18.
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Stable inflation expectations are not evidence that the ECB can be passive, but evidence that the public expects it to act when necessary to maintain price stability. open.substack.com/pub/swissmac...
Anchored Inflation Expectations Are No Reason for the ECB to Hesitate
Inflation expectations in the euro area look reassuringly well anchored.
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My thoughts on this week’s ECB meeting. Either hike once and stop, or hike three times in a row. open.substack.com/pub/swissmac...
The ECB in July: Hike or Stop
It is hard to make sense of market expectations of ECB policy.
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My thoughts on the upcoming ECB meeting. open.substack.com/pub/swissmac...
The ECB's June Bet
Source: https://ecb-watch.eu, data as of 29.5.2026
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The risk of fiscal dominance in the euro area might be greater than the markets think. swissmacroandhistory.substack.com/p/bond-holde...
Bond holders are right to worry about ECB independence
Isabel Schnabel’s Goodhart Lecture of May 7, 2026 is the most candid statement about the risks to central bank independence from any ECB Executive Board member in years.
swissmacroandhistory.substack.com
Swiss inflation is ticking up, but the SNB has no reason to act. A June hike looks unlikely, and rates will stay on hold as long as inflation remains below 1%. swissmacroandhistory.substack.com/p/will-the-s...
Will the SNB Raise Rates in June?
With inflation rising and tensions in the Gulf continuing, some market commentators are reassessing the widely held view that the SNB will leave interest rates unchanged until at least the end of the ...
swissmacroandhistory.substack.com
For many ECB policymakers, the most relevant historical comparison may not be 2021–22. It may be 2011, when the ECB tightened into a supply shock and quickly had to reverse. New post on why the case for holding is underappreciated. open.substack.com/pub/swissmac...
The ECB and the case for doing nothing
In April and July 2011, the ECB raised interest rates in response to rising energy prices.
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The Riksbank is likely to stay on hold, but the balance of risks is shifting. In today’s post I look at the upcoming decision and what the energy shock means for Swedish monetary policy. swissmacroandhistory.substack.com/p/riksbank-w...
Riksbank Will Hold as Energy Risks Build
Sweden goes into the Riksbank decision on May 7 with inflation well below target, but unlikely to stay there.
swissmacroandhistory.substack.com
Some thoughts on why central banks did not raise rates last week. swissmacroandhistory.substack.com/p/better-to-...
Better to Be Late Than Wrong, For Now
Source: Trading Economics
swissmacroandhistory.substack.com
In this week’s post, I discuss whether the UK wage-price process has shifted in recent years. I argue that it has not, and that monetary policy needs to remain somewhat tight to bring inflation back to target. open.substack.com/pub/swissmac...
The UK Inflation Process Is Still Intact
Markets behave as if the UK inflation process has changed.
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“Markets price the mean, while central banks worry about the distribution” or, as President Lyndon Johnson put it, “Ranges are for cattle. Give me a number” swissmacroandhistory.substack.com/p/markets-pr...
Markets price the mean, while central banks worry about the distribution
“Ranges are for cattle.
swissmacroandhistory.substack.com
Some thoughts on energy prices and inflation in the euro area. swissmacroandhistory.substack.com/p/ecb-and-en...
ECB and energy prices: Persistence matters
This year’s ECB Watchers conference, organised by Volker Wieland at the IMFS in Frankfurt, came at a very opportune moment, just weeks after the surge in energy prices.Thanks for reading Swiss Macro a...
swissmacroandhistory.substack.com
