Shane Oliver
@shaneoliver.bsky.social
Chief Economist & Head of Inv Strategy, AMP. Into boats, pop music, nature, economics, investing, my family…& being nice. I don’t solicit funds or spruik trading schemes.
Aust Jun household spending rose +0.8%m/+6%y with Jun qtr vols +0.7%q (or +0.8%q ex trans, tobacco & alcohol). Discretionary spending +6.7%yoy. Maybe EOFY sales helped but it suggests consumer spending remains resilient…leaving RBA on track for a further hike but prob not in Aug
This table a very rough guide only but based on price to rent ratios houses are more overvalued than units & within houses Bri, Ade, Syd and Hob are more overvalued and hence most vulnerable to price falls.Mel is less overvalued & so may benefit relatively..esp if Vic inv impediments are relaxed
The rising trend in mortgage rates (after their 1989-2021 downtrend) & Fed investor tax hikes point to higher rental yields potentially reversing some of their 40 yr downtrend which could in turn bring the 30 yr property super cycle to an end.The housing shortage is the main sticking point tho!
Cotality data for Jul confirmed further falls in property prices with Bri, Ade & Per now falling too. Housing shortage still supportive but higher rates, tax hikes, poor confidence & poor affordability (with widening gap between prices & capacity to pay) point to further falls.
Prelim Domain auction clearances Syd 48%=final ~48%,Jul avg 68 Mel 60%=final ~57%,Jul avg 67 Mel up, Syd down with both helped by depressed listing as buyers are cautious. High rates,investor tax hikes & poor confidence are likely to see clearances remain weak, esp Syd. #ausecon
AI chipmakers bounce; the Iran/oil soapy continues; Fed credibility at risk; RBA to hold in Aug but still tighten again as inflation problem remains; home price fall accelerates; Aust earnings preview; Vale Bill Evans www.amp.com.au/resources/in...
Weekly market update - 31-07-2026 - AMP
Share markets were mixed over the last week helped by some pull back in oil prices as the US held back from escalting further with Iran, a rebound in tech stocks and specifically chipmakers from overs...
amp.com.au
Cotality daily home price data for July Syd -1.4% (-5% from hi) Mel -1.2% (-4.9% from hi) Bri -0.6% Ade -0.2% Per +0.1% 5 city av -0.9% (-2.2% v hi) The price slump has accelerated with the boom time cities now turning -ve too. We expect a 7% top to bottom (more in Syd). Full mthly data out Mon
Fed held at 3.5-3.75% with Warsh saying Fed will deliver price stability but with little guidance, 3 dissents & oil up mkt is starting to fret more about inflation and Fed credibility. Money mkt sees 65% chance of Sep hike & 1.3 hikes by yr end. Lack of guidance is likely leading to more volatility
Hi. This note looks at why happiness might be falling despite a rising trend in material living standards over the last 20 yrs or so. www.amp.com.au/resources/in...
Oliver's insights economics of happiness 28 July 2026 - AMP
. The basic “economic problem” which economics is focussed on solving is: how to maximise utility or satisfaction when human wants are unlimited but resources available to satisfy those wants are limi...
amp.com.au
RBA Gov Bullock still leaning a bit hawkish: Demand has eased and underlying inflation risen broadly as expected Some further easing in labour meter will likely be required Outlook is more complicated with there are multiple shocks Still talking of raising rates further if needed
Prelim Domain auction clearances Syd 53%=final ~52%,Jul avg 67 Mel 55%=final ~51%,Jul avg 66 Syd up, Mel down on last week but both soft with weak sales. Still consistent with a normal cyclical downturn. Higher rates, tax hikes + poor confidence = likely to remain weak. #ausecon
Weekly economic and market update - Everything, everywhere all at once - War, surging oil prices, more tariffs, rising rates and bond yields & AI worries making for a turbulent ride; Aust petrol prices heading above $2 again; watch June CPI www.amp.com.au/resources/in...
Weekly market update - 24-07-2026 - AMP
Renewed global worries weighed on the Australian share market which fell around 0.3%, but with its lower exposure to tech shares providing some protection.
amp.com.au
Australian jobs growth remains strong & the near record participation rate is also a sign of strength. But it can also be a sign of more people wanting more work..evident in higher underemployment. Overall though the RBA would still likely see the jobs mkt as a bit tight.
Mostly strong June Aust jobs data Emp +76k/+1.7%yoy Full time emp +29k Hrs wkd +0.2%mom/+1.8%yoy Unemp flat at 4.4%..still lo Participation up But underemp +0.2% to 6.5%…still low but softening Overall supports case for further RBA hike but rising underemp may see it pause again
With oil prices on the rise again and AI related worries here’s 9 charts for investors to keep an eye on. www.amp.com.au/resources/in...
Oliver's insights Charts to watch 21 July 2026 - AMP
Share markets had a strong first half despite the oil supply shock as expectations for de-escalation, okay economic data, strong profits and the AI boom provided an offset.
amp.com.au
Aust HIA new home sales -4.6% in June as higher rates, poor confidence and tax hikes on investors impact. (HIA chart)
Prelim Domain auction clearances Syd 49%=final ~47%,Jul avg 67 Mel 59%=final ~54%,Jul avg 66 Clearances up a bit in Mel - it’s more affordable than Syd - but both remain weak with poor sales. Likely to remain weak given higher rates, investor tax hikes & poor confidence. #ausecon
