Second Nature Systems

@showpiece.bsky.social

Balanced comfort. Resourceful systems. Old and new technologies working together 💚 Gas boiler, 22 solar panels, 32kWh battery. GitHub: https://github.com/Alexwijn/SAT/discussions/40

Cost, Energy & Comfort [6 Days | 31 Jul–5 Aug 26] HP £2.11 cheaper than modeled boiler without off-grid solar+battery DHW HP — IGo EV Saver - £0.90 use + £2.80 elec SC = £3.70 Boiler — Fixed gas + Agile elec - £1.05 gas + £1.76 gas SC + £3.00 elec SC = £5.80

Heat-pump and boiler cost comparison with over-time charts, bill-relevant cost comparison, tariff ranking and COP diagnosticsEnergy and comfort comparison for Boiler with off-grid solar+battery DHW — observed and Boiler without off-grid solar+battery DHW — modeledOperational carbon comparison for the heat pump, Boiler without off-grid solar+battery DHW — modeled, and Boiler with off-grid solar+battery DHW — observed, plus HP timing intensityStandard Deviation Analysis

Solar hot water: [123 Days | 5 Apr 26 to 5 Aug 26] 5 Aug: 2.30 kWh; since 5 Apr 277.2 kWh into tank. Modeled boiler gas input ~402.0 kWh; net input saved ~124.7 kWh. Modeled CO₂e avoided: ~0.65 kg on 5 Aug; ~78.8 kg since 5 Apr. ~31% less input, ~1.45x vs boiler model.

Solar hot water chart showing immersion input for the completed day, cumulative input since 5 April, modeled gas input, net input saved versus immersion, modeled CO2e avoided, input efficiency, and an off-grid garage solar surplus note explaining hot water use instead of curtailment.

Solar payback: [123 Days | 5 Apr 26 to 5 Aug 26] Today 5.04 kWh; import saved £0.98 + export earned £0.10 Rates 23.9p Tracker import; 12.0p export Total 1011.20 kWh; £194.50 total return (£1.58/day) Payback £595.92 left; 24.6% recovered; break-even 18 Oct 2027

Solar generation and payback chart showing daily generation, daily import savings, export earnings, total return including export income, remaining payback, forecast, and summary metrics.Solar power profile chart showing measured watts through the day, a 2h average, generation start and end markers when available, and the daily peak.Solar projection outlook chart showing estimated break-even date, cumulative and 25-year net return including export income, scenario range, monthly projected generation, observed return split into import saved and export earned, and lifetime assumptions.Solar payback progress chart showing paid-back percentage, actual return so far, remaining cost, and projected break-even progress.

Cost, Energy & Comfort [3 Days | 2 Aug–4 Aug 26] HP £1.01 cheaper than modeled boiler without off-grid solar+battery DHW HP — IGo EV Saver - £0.41 use + £1.40 elec SC = £1.81 Boiler — Fixed gas + Agile elec - £0.44 gas + £0.88 gas SC + £1.50 elec SC = £2.82

Heat-pump and boiler cost comparison with over-time charts, bill-relevant cost comparison, tariff ranking and COP diagnosticsEnergy and comfort comparison for Boiler with off-grid solar+battery DHW — observed and Boiler without off-grid solar+battery DHW — modeledOperational carbon comparison for the heat pump, Boiler without off-grid solar+battery DHW — modeled, and Boiler with off-grid solar+battery DHW — observed, plus HP timing intensityStandard Deviation Analysis

Solar payback: [122 Days | 5 Apr 26 to 4 Aug 26] Today 6.33 kWh; import saved £0.64 + export earned £0.45 Rates 29.7p Tracker import; 12.0p export Total 1006.16 kWh; £193.43 total return (£1.59/day) Payback £596.99 left; 24.5% recovered; break-even 17 Oct 2027

Solar generation and payback chart showing daily generation, daily import savings, export earnings, total return including export income, remaining payback, forecast, and summary metrics.Solar power profile chart showing measured watts through the day, a 2h average, generation start and end markers when available, and the daily peak.Solar projection outlook chart showing estimated break-even date, cumulative and 25-year net return including export income, scenario range, monthly projected generation, observed return split into import saved and export earned, and lifetime assumptions.Solar payback progress chart showing paid-back percentage, actual return so far, remaining cost, and projected break-even progress.

Cost, Energy & Comfort [832 Days | 24 Apr 24–3 Aug 26] Modeled boiler without off-grid solar+battery DHW £118.87 cheaper than HP HP — Agile - £1811.21 use + £414.48 elec SC = £2225.69 Boiler — Tracker→Fixed gas + Tracker→Agile elec - £1328.32 gas + £238.78 gas SC + £539.71 elec SC = £2106.82

Heat-pump and boiler cost comparison with over-time charts, bill-relevant cost comparison, tariff ranking and COP diagnosticsEnergy and comfort comparison for Boiler with off-grid solar+battery DHW — observed and Boiler without off-grid solar+battery DHW — modeledOperational carbon comparison for the heat pump, Boiler without off-grid solar+battery DHW — modeled, and Boiler with off-grid solar+battery DHW — observed, plus HP timing intensityStandard Deviation Analysis

Solar hot water: [121 Days | 5 Apr 26 to 3 Aug 26] 3 Aug: 2.27 kWh; since 5 Apr 274.9 kWh into tank. Modeled boiler gas input ~398.6 kWh; net input saved ~123.7 kWh. Modeled CO₂e avoided: ~0.65 kg on 3 Aug; ~78.1 kg since 5 Apr. ~31% less input, ~1.45x vs boiler model.

Solar hot water chart showing immersion input for the completed day, cumulative input since 5 April, modeled gas input, net input saved versus immersion, modeled CO2e avoided, input efficiency, and an off-grid garage solar surplus note explaining hot water use instead of curtailment.

Solar payback: [121 Days | 5 Apr 26 to 3 Aug 26] Today 7.65 kWh; import saved £1.01 + export earned £0.46 Rates 29.5p Tracker import; 12.0p export Total 999.83 kWh; £192.33 total return (£1.59/day) Payback £598.09 left; 24.3% recovered; break-even 15 Oct 2027

Solar generation and payback chart showing daily generation, daily import savings, export earnings, total return including export income, remaining payback, forecast, and summary metrics.Solar power profile chart showing measured watts through the day, a 2h average, generation start and end markers when available, and the daily peak.Solar projection outlook chart showing estimated break-even date, cumulative and 25-year net return including export income, scenario range, monthly projected generation, observed return split into import saved and export earned, and lifetime assumptions.Solar payback progress chart showing paid-back percentage, actual return so far, remaining cost, and projected break-even progress.

Cost, Energy & Comfort [365 Days | 3 Aug 25–2 Aug 26] HP £283.30 cheaper than modeled boiler without off-grid solar+battery DHW HP — Agile - £437.90 use + £182.44 elec SC = £620.34 Boiler — Tracker→Fixed gas + Tracker→Agile elec - £559.32 gas + £108.57 gas SC + £235.75 elec SC = £903.64

Heat-pump and boiler cost comparison with over-time charts, bill-relevant cost comparison, tariff ranking and COP diagnosticsEnergy and comfort comparison for Boiler with off-grid solar+battery DHW — observed and Boiler without off-grid solar+battery DHW — modeledOperational carbon comparison for the heat pump, Boiler without off-grid solar+battery DHW — modeled, and Boiler with off-grid solar+battery DHW — observed, plus HP timing intensityStandard Deviation Analysis

Solar hot water: [120 Days | 5 Apr 26 to 2 Aug 26] 2 Aug: 2.31 kWh; since 5 Apr 272.7 kWh into tank. Modeled boiler gas input ~395.3 kWh; net input saved ~122.7 kWh. Modeled CO₂e avoided: ~0.66 kg on 2 Aug; ~77.5 kg since 5 Apr. ~31% less input, ~1.45x vs boiler model.

Solar hot water chart showing immersion input for the completed day, cumulative input since 5 April, modeled gas input, net input saved versus immersion, modeled CO2e avoided, input efficiency, and an off-grid garage solar surplus note explaining hot water use instead of curtailment.

Solar payback: [120 Days | 5 Apr 26 to 2 Aug 26] Today 6.87 kWh; import saved £0.62 + export earned £0.52 Rates 29.6p Tracker import; 12.0p export Total 992.17 kWh; £190.87 total return (£1.59/day) Payback £599.55 left; 24.1% recovered; break-even 15 Oct 2027

Solar generation and payback chart showing daily generation, daily import savings, export earnings, total return including export income, remaining payback, forecast, and summary metrics.Solar power profile chart showing measured watts through the day, a 2h average, generation start and end markers when available, and the daily peak.Solar projection outlook chart showing estimated break-even date, cumulative and 25-year net return including export income, scenario range, monthly projected generation, observed return split into import saved and export earned, and lifetime assumptions.Solar payback progress chart showing paid-back percentage, actual return so far, remaining cost, and projected break-even progress.

Cost, Energy & Comfort [180 Days | 3 Feb–1 Aug 26] HP £125.02 cheaper than modeled boiler without off-grid solar+battery DHW HP — Agile - £177.17 use + £89.97 elec SC = £267.14 Boiler — Tracker→Fixed gas + Tracker→Agile elec - £224.71 gas + £53.33 gas SC + £114.11 elec SC = £392.15

Heat-pump and boiler cost comparison with over-time charts, bill-relevant cost comparison, tariff ranking and COP diagnosticsEnergy and comfort comparison for Boiler with off-grid solar+battery DHW — observed and Boiler without off-grid solar+battery DHW — modeledOperational carbon comparison for the heat pump, Boiler without off-grid solar+battery DHW — modeled, and Boiler with off-grid solar+battery DHW — observed, plus HP timing intensityStandard Deviation Analysis

Solar hot water: [119 Days | 5 Apr 26 to 1 Aug 26] 1 Aug: 3.50 kWh; since 5 Apr 270.3 kWh into tank. Modeled boiler gas input ~392.0 kWh; net input saved ~121.7 kWh. Modeled CO₂e avoided: ~1.00 kg on 1 Aug; ~76.8 kg since 5 Apr. ~31% less input, ~1.45x vs boiler model.

Solar hot water chart showing immersion input for the completed day, cumulative input since 5 April, modeled gas input, net input saved versus immersion, modeled CO2e avoided, input efficiency, and an off-grid garage solar surplus note explaining hot water use instead of curtailment.

Solar payback: [119 Days | 5 Apr 26 to 1 Aug 26] Today 10.43 kWh; import saved £0.50 + export earned £0.96 Rates 26.8p Tracker import; 12.0p export Total 985.30 kWh; £189.73 total return (£1.59/day) Payback £600.69 left; 24.0% recovered; break-even 13 Oct 2027

Solar generation and payback chart showing daily generation, daily import savings, export earnings, total return including export income, remaining payback, forecast, and summary metrics.Solar power profile chart showing measured watts through the day, a 2h average, generation start and end markers when available, and the daily peak.Solar projection outlook chart showing estimated break-even date, cumulative and 25-year net return including export income, scenario range, monthly projected generation, observed return split into import saved and export earned, and lifetime assumptions.Solar payback progress chart showing paid-back percentage, actual return so far, remaining cost, and projected break-even progress.

[31 Days | 1 Jul–31 Jul 26] Profile-based subtotal: HP £13.22 lower vs modeled boiler without off-grid solar+battery DHW HP IGo EV: £4.21 use + £14.46 elec SC = £18.67 Boiler gas Fixed, elec Agile: £7.30 gas + £9.10 gas SC + £15.49 elec SC = £31.89

Heat-pump and boiler cost comparison with over-time charts, bill-relevant cost comparison, tariff ranking and COP diagnosticsEnergy and comfort comparison for Boiler with off-grid solar+battery DHW — observed and Boiler without off-grid solar+battery DHW — modeledOperational carbon comparison for the heat pump, Boiler without off-grid solar+battery DHW — modeled, and Boiler with off-grid solar+battery DHW — observed, plus HP timing intensityStandard Deviation Analysis

Solar hot water: [118 Days | 5 Apr 26 to 31 Jul 26] 31 Jul: 0.46 kWh; since 5 Apr 266.8 kWh into tank. Modeled boiler gas input ~386.9 kWh; net input saved ~120.1 kWh. Modeled CO₂e avoided: ~0.13 kg on 31 Jul; ~75.8 kg since 5 Apr. ~31% less input, ~1.45x vs boiler model.

Solar hot water chart showing immersion input for the completed day, cumulative input since 5 April, modeled gas input, net input saved versus immersion, modeled CO2e avoided, input efficiency, and an off-grid garage solar surplus note explaining hot water use instead of curtailment.

Solar payback: [118 Days | 5 Apr 26 to 31 Jul 26] Today 9.17 kWh; import saved £0.72 + export earned £0.76 Rates 29.9p Tracker import; 12.0p export Total 974.87 kWh; £188.27 total return (£1.60/day) Payback £602.15 left; 23.8% recovered; break-even 12 Oct 2027

Solar generation and payback chart showing daily generation, daily import savings, export earnings, total return including export income, remaining payback, forecast, and summary metrics.Solar power profile chart showing measured watts through the day, a 2h average, generation start and end markers when available, and the daily peak.Solar projection outlook chart showing estimated break-even date, cumulative and 25-year net return including export income, scenario range, monthly projected generation, observed return split into import saved and export earned, and lifetime assumptions.Solar payback progress chart showing paid-back percentage, actual return so far, remaining cost, and projected break-even progress.

1/4 Starting tomorrow... A fairer heat pump vs boiler comparison should use the total household bill, including unavoidable standing charges. e.g. Over this 90-day period, the heat pump household cost £65.99, compared with £101.77 for the modelled boiler household.

Cost, Energy & Comfort [90 Days | 2 May 26 to 30 Jul 26] HP £20.99 cheaper than boiler without off-grid solar+battery DHW HP — IGo EV Saver - £39.52 SC-adjusted - £65.98 elec+SC - £26.47 avoided gas SC Boiler — Tracker -> Fixed, modeled - £60.51 incl gas SC

Heat-pump and boiler cost comparison with over-time charts, standing-charge-adjusted tariff ranking and COP diagnosticsEnergy and comfort comparison for Boiler with off-grid solar+battery DHW — observed and Boiler without off-grid solar+battery DHW — modeledOperational carbon comparison for the heat pump, Boiler without off-grid solar+battery DHW — modeled, and Boiler with off-grid solar+battery DHW — observed, plus HP timing intensityStandard Deviation Analysis

Solar hot water: [117 Days | 5 Apr 26 to 30 Jul 26] 30 Jul: 2.31 kWh; since 5 Apr 266.4 kWh into tank. Modeled boiler gas input ~386.2 kWh; net input saved ~119.9 kWh. Modeled CO₂e avoided: ~0.66 kg on 30 Jul; ~75.7 kg since 5 Apr. ~31% less input, ~1.45x vs boiler model.

Solar hot water chart showing immersion input for the completed day, cumulative input since 5 April, modeled gas input, net input saved versus immersion, modeled CO2e avoided, input efficiency, and an off-grid garage solar surplus note explaining hot water use instead of curtailment.

Solar payback: [117 Days | 5 Apr 26 to 30 Jul 26] Today 11.80 kWh; import saved £1.08 + export earned £0.91 Rates 29.2p Tracker import; 12.0p export Total 965.70 kWh; £186.79 total return (£1.60/day) Payback £603.63 left; 23.6% recovered; break-even 11 Oct 2027

Solar generation and payback chart showing daily generation, daily import savings, export earnings, total return including export income, remaining payback, forecast, and summary metrics.Solar power profile chart showing measured watts through the day, a 2h average, generation start and end markers when available, and the daily peak.Solar projection outlook chart showing estimated break-even date, cumulative and 25-year net return including export income, scenario range, monthly projected generation, observed return split into import saved and export earned, and lifetime assumptions.Solar payback progress chart showing paid-back percentage, actual return so far, remaining cost, and projected break-even progress.

Cost, Energy & Comfort [30 Days | 30 Jun 26 to 29 Jul 26] HP £6.93 cheaper than boiler without off-grid solar+battery DHW HP — IGo EV Saver - £9.24 SC-adjusted - £18.05 elec+SC - £8.80 avoided gas SC Boiler — Fixed, modeled - £16.17 incl gas SC

Heat-pump and boiler cost comparison with over-time charts, standing-charge-adjusted tariff ranking and COP diagnosticsEnergy and comfort comparison for Boiler with off-grid solar+battery DHW — observed and Boiler without off-grid solar+battery DHW — modeledOperational carbon comparison for the heat pump, Boiler without off-grid solar+battery DHW — modeled, and Boiler with off-grid solar+battery DHW — observed, plus HP timing intensityStandard Deviation Analysis

Solar hot water: [116 Days | 5 Apr 26 to 29 Jul 26] 29 Jul: 1.47 kWh; since 5 Apr 264.1 kWh into tank. Modeled boiler gas input ~382.9 kWh; net input saved ~118.8 kWh. Modeled CO₂e avoided: ~0.42 kg on 29 Jul; ~75.0 kg since 5 Apr. ~31% less input, ~1.45x vs boiler model.

Solar hot water chart showing immersion input for the completed day, cumulative input since 5 April, modeled gas input, net input saved versus immersion, modeled CO2e avoided, input efficiency, and an off-grid garage solar surplus note explaining hot water use instead of curtailment.

Solar payback: [116 Days | 5 Apr 26 to 29 Jul 26] Today 6.69 kWh; import saved £0.92 + export earned £0.37 Rates 29.3p Tracker import; 12.0p export Total 953.91 kWh; £184.80 total return (£1.59/day) Payback £605.62 left; 23.4% recovered; break-even 11 Oct 2027

Solar generation and payback chart showing daily generation, daily import savings, export earnings, total return including export income, remaining payback, forecast, and summary metrics.Solar power profile chart showing measured watts through the day, a 2h average, generation start and end markers when available, and the daily peak.Solar projection outlook chart showing estimated break-even date, cumulative and 25-year net return including export income, scenario range, monthly projected generation, observed return split into import saved and export earned, and lifetime assumptions.Solar payback progress chart showing paid-back percentage, actual return so far, remaining cost, and projected break-even progress.

Cost, Energy & Comfort [21 Days | 8 Jul 26 to 28 Jul 26] HP £5.21 cheaper than boiler without off-grid solar+battery DHW HP — IGo EV Saver - £6.34 SC-adjusted - £12.50 elec+SC - £6.16 avoided gas SC Boiler — Fixed, modeled - £11.55 incl gas SC

Heat-pump and boiler cost comparison with over-time charts, standing-charge-adjusted tariff ranking and COP diagnosticsEnergy and comfort comparison for Boiler with off-grid solar+battery DHW — observed and Boiler without off-grid solar+battery DHW — modeledOperational carbon comparison for the heat pump, Boiler without off-grid solar+battery DHW — modeled, and Boiler with off-grid solar+battery DHW — observed, plus HP timing intensityStandard Deviation Analysis

Solar hot water: [115 Days | 5 Apr 26 to 28 Jul 26] 28 Jul: 1.68 kWh; since 5 Apr 262.6 kWh into tank. Modeled boiler gas input ~380.8 kWh; net input saved ~118.2 kWh. Modeled CO₂e avoided: ~0.48 kg on 28 Jul; ~74.6 kg since 5 Apr. ~31% less input, ~1.45x vs boiler model.

Solar hot water chart showing immersion input for the completed day, cumulative input since 5 April, modeled gas input, net input saved versus immersion, modeled CO2e avoided, input efficiency, and an off-grid garage solar surplus note explaining hot water use instead of curtailment.

Solar payback: [115 Days | 5 Apr 26 to 28 Jul 26] Today 7.12 kWh; import saved £0.46 + export earned £0.60 Rates 28.3p Tracker import; 12.0p export Total 947.22 kWh; £183.51 total return (£1.60/day) Payback £606.91 left; 23.2% recovered; break-even 9 Oct 2027

Solar generation and payback chart showing daily generation, daily import savings, export earnings, total return including export income, remaining payback, forecast, and summary metrics.Solar power profile chart showing measured watts through the day, a 2h average, generation start and end markers when available, and the daily peak.Solar projection outlook chart showing estimated break-even date, cumulative and 25-year net return including export income, scenario range, monthly projected generation, observed return split into import saved and export earned, and lifetime assumptions.Solar payback progress chart showing paid-back percentage, actual return so far, remaining cost, and projected break-even progress.

Cost, Energy & Comfort [18 Days | 10 Jul 26 to 27 Jul 26] HP £4.26 cheaper than boiler without off-grid solar+battery DHW HP — IGo EV Saver - £5.47 SC-adjusted - £10.75 elec+SC - £5.28 avoided gas SC Boiler — Fixed, modeled - £9.73 incl gas SC

Heat-pump and boiler cost comparison with over-time charts, standing-charge-adjusted tariff ranking and COP diagnosticsEnergy and comfort comparison for Boiler with off-grid solar+battery DHW — observed and Boiler without off-grid solar+battery DHW — modeledOperational carbon comparison for the heat pump, Boiler without off-grid solar+battery DHW — modeled, and Boiler with off-grid solar+battery DHW — observed, plus HP timing intensityStandard Deviation Analysis

Solar payback: [114 Days | 5 Apr 26 to 27 Jul 26] Today 5.36 kWh; import saved £0.74 + export earned £0.28 Rates 28.3p Tracker import; 12.0p export Total 940.09 kWh; £182.46 total return (£1.60/day) Payback £607.96 left; 23.1% recovered; break-even 7 Oct 2027

Solar generation and payback chart showing daily generation, daily import savings, export earnings, total return including export income, remaining payback, forecast, and summary metrics.Solar power profile chart showing measured watts through the day, a 2h average, generation start and end markers when available, and the daily peak.Solar projection outlook chart showing estimated break-even date, cumulative and 25-year net return including export income, scenario range, monthly projected generation, observed return split into import saved and export earned, and lifetime assumptions.Solar payback progress chart showing paid-back percentage, actual return so far, remaining cost, and projected break-even progress.