Today, the Government gave us the first real details of its plans for devolution. The headline measure is letting mayors keep a slice of Income Tax raised in their areas, in an effort to sharpen their incentives to grow. www.gov.uk/government/n...

PM hands mayors share of income tax to make lives better in every postcode

The Prime Minister will today launch the biggest transfer of power from Westminster in a generation, giving communities greater control over the decisions that shape jobs, transport, housing and publi...

gov.uk

The UK's run of feel-good economic data came to an abrupt end this morning. The flash composite PMI index for May suggests private-sector activity shrank on the month. Worryingly, this happened despite pre-emptive buying propping up manufacturing. Services shrank at the fastest rate since 2021.

The UK economy grew by 0.6% in Q1 2026, according to data released by the ONS today. This continues a trend of strong Q1 data post-pandemic, which has previously petered out in later quarters. Given high energy prices and interest rates, don’t be surprised if that happens again in 2026. 🧵

I've been writing about interest rates (again) for the RF Substack.

Resolution Foundation@resolutionfoundation.org · 3mo ago

The Bank of England has so far refrained from raising interest rates, but they're going up anyway. @simonpittaway.bsky.social endeavours to figure out why, in our latest Substack ⤵️ buff.ly/jSznnrR

Interesting from today's FPC record: the recent rise in mortgage rates reflects lenders facing higher funding costs rather than wider spreads. So far at least, it's not a classic credit crunch for mortgagors - just an unwelcome repricing for those looking to take out a loan (inc. yours truly!)

🏠 New report out today from me, @jamessmithrf.bsky.social and Hannah Aldridge 🏠 We dig into whether financial regulation is holding back young people’s dreams of owning a home — and what policymakers should actually do to help 🧵⤵️ buff.ly/0OaFqsX

Credit where credit's due? • Resolution Foundation

Almost half of Britain’s 8.3 million potential first-time buyers earn enough for a mortgage on a starter home, but just 11 per cent have enough saved for a deposit. A targeted equity-loan scheme is th...

buff.ly

The MPC's 5-4 split today continued a rising tide of dissenting votes from internal BoE members. Last year, one-in-five votes cast by internals went against the majority decision - the highest rate of internal dissent since 2005. This is good! A sign of active debate among the committee.

Simon Pittaway@simonpittaway.bsky.social · 6mo ago

The MPC delivers a bit of a dovish surprise, holding Bank Rate at 3.75% only by a narrow 5-4 margin. Markets were expecting a clear-cut 7-2 vote. There will be lots of unpack on the Bank’s latest outlook for the economy and the future path of interest rates.

Look, I know there's a lot going on in the news right now. But the MPC decision today was actually quite interesting! They were only one vote away from delivering a cut that wasn't on the cards at all, and they now think inflation will not just drop sharply this year but stay low. Thread below ⤵️

The MPC delivers a bit of a dovish surprise, holding Bank Rate at 3.75% only by a narrow 5-4 margin. Markets were expecting a clear-cut 7-2 vote. There will be lots of unpack on the Bank’s latest outlook for the economy and the future path of interest rates.

As interest rates fall, why is Britain’s average mortgage bill set to keep rising in 2026? In our latest Substack, @simonpittaway.bsky.social unpacks the weirdness of this interest rate cycle. ⬇️ buff.ly/EEQ99bZ

Why your mortgage bill might rise as rates fall..

Senior Economist Simon Pittaway on 2026's mortgage mystery: how can mortgage bills go up while the Bank continues to cut rates?

resolutionfoundation.substack.com

New research out from me today: why has Britain experienced so little productivity growth in recent years? And why (at least up until now) has the US has performed so much better? Spoiler: it’s not just tech companies and energy prices 🧵

The UK economy unexpectedly grew by 0.1% in the last quarter of 2024 on the back of an unexpectedly strong December. But yet another fall in GDP per capita underlines our ongoing living standards squeeze. A thread on the key takeaways from today’s data.🧵

One reason why UK low-income households are especially poor (by intl. standards) is the cost of goods & services for this demographic. What’s behind this – and what should be done? @simonpittaway.bsky.social of @resfoundation.bsky.social explores #LSEInequalitiesBlog

Why is Britain a particularly pricey place to be poor?

Lower-income households in the UK are significantly poorer than their counterparts in countries like France and Germany. What’s more, the gap in living standards gets wider still when you fac…

buff.ly

Are any marketsy people on here able to explain why gilt-OIS spreads have risen so much over the past year? The timing is consistent with QT being the driver, but that's only circumstantial evidence.

When comparing incomes across countries, we adjust for the local price of all goods and services (known as purchasing power parity, or PPP). But when comparing the incomes of poorer households, shouldn’t we focus on the price of things that matter most to them?🧵