Russian #wheat exports in July: lowest since 2017/18, driven by Azov/Black Sea disruption. Futures are tumbling anyway. Makes sense? Not really. Here's what we think is going on: sizov.report/reports/3068... #blacksea #oatt #sizovreport
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Funds were actively buying Euronext #wheat last week amid Black Sea and Azov Sea disruption. This week? Probably selling — as if the region suddenly went quiet. It didn't. No signs of de-escalation, and importer demand should be picking up. #wheat #oatt #sizovreport
Why is #wheat rallying hard again today? More attacks in the Black Sea. A few days ago I broke down what's happening — and why wheat is called a "widowmaker" — on The Telegraph podcast "Ukraine: the latest." www.youtube.com/watch?v=gzG-... #oatt #Russia #Ukraine #blacksea #sizovreport
Wow. #Wheat is up 2 cents — thanks to rallying crude. (Meanwhile the global market is staring down its largest supply shock in years, thanks to Azov/Black Sea disruption. But who cares about such tiny details, right?) #wheat #oatt #sizovreport
Another vessel hit near Odesa today. The pattern continues. #wheat #corn #blacksea #oatt #sizovreport
Friday's sell-off on Black Sea de-escalation rumours — overdone? The deal talk is coming from Ukraine. From Russia? Silence. Hard to imagine a deal without Moscow at the table. Things to watch this week: UN Security Council (Mon), Zelensky-Trump meeting (Tue), and probably more attacks.
Front-month Euronext #wheat just hit the highest since June 2024 and CBOT is approaching $7 handle again. Here's what we wrote last week: "Until Russia finds an effective way to repel Ukrainian attacks, its export flows will remain under pressure - the rally has further room to run." #sizovreport
French #corn ratings: 90% good/excellent in early May. 44% now. That's the fastest collapse on record. EU S&D could see substantial revisions: bigger corn imports, larger #wheat feed use? #oatt #sizovreport #agwx
We just cut our July Russian #wheat export estimate to 1.5 mmt from 2.0 mmt. That's roughly half the 5-year average of 3.1 mmt. Azov Sea closure is the main reason - but muted demand from Egypt and Turkey isn't helping either. Full breakdown: sizov.report/reports/3053... #sizovreport #oatt
French #corn ratings: 90% good/excellent in early May. 44% now. That's the fastest collapse on record. EU S&D could see substantial revisions: bigger corn imports, larger #wheat feed use? #oatt #sizovreport #agwx
Headlines: Russian #wheat harvest badly delayed! Reality: yes, behind 2025 - but that was a relatively early campaign. Versus the average, it's close to normal pace. The real story is yields in the South, the #1 growing region. Surprises there. #wheat #Russia #sizovreport
CBOT #wheat, 10 cents from limit up. Everyone's watching Azov Sea disruptions. Fewer are watching Odesa - Russian strikes there overnight were what actually triggered today's spike. The key takeaway: both RU and UA 26/27 export estimates could be cut substantially. More room to run? #sizovreport
Why did #wheat turn green today? Maybe some people caught our podcast with @StandardGrain and realized "sell the Black Sea spike" might not be the best playbook this time. share.vidyard.com/watch/t3ViNX... #wheat #blacksea #oatt #sizovreport #kerch
Is Wheat Underpriced? Russia/Ukraine War Update 7/14/26
Andrey Sizov discusses the current state of grain markets, focusing on the importance of the Black Sea region for global wheat supply, particularly amid ongoing conflicts. He explains that, while rece...
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French #corn ratings dropping like a rock. With heat still persistent, I don't think it's over. France is the EU's top corn grower. Is U.S. corn taking notes? #agwx #oatt #agwx #sizovreport
French #corn ratings dropping like a rock. With heat still persistent, I don't think it's over. France is the EU's top corn grower. Is U.S. corn taking notes? #agwx #oatt #agwx #sizovreport
Models continue to predict hot weather for the Midwest. #Corn and #soybeans yields won't like temps around 100F (38°C) with limited precip during the key development stage. #agwx #oatt #sizovreport
Euronext #corn: fresh 3-year high, then a pullback from 240. Funds are near record-high longs. A lot of length to unwind if this turns. Reversal or just pause? #agwx #oatt #sizovreport
French corn ratings just fell below the 2020-2025 range floor. We predicted this. The bigger question: heat isn't expected to ease until 2H of July. This could get much worse before it gets better. #corn #agwx #sizovreport
European heat in one chart. Euronext November corn is up 14% since mid-June. Wheat hasn't moved nearly as much — Black Sea harvest hopes seem to be capping it. But watch this space. The market may still be underpricing the EU story. #corn #wheat #agwx #sizovreport
#Wheat +3%. Funds shorts don't like tighter US U.S. S&D. Reversal or dead cat bounce? #oatt #sizovreport
French #corn ratings dropped to the lowest in recent years last week - and two things to keep in mind: This reflects plant conditions as of Monday only. The main heat came later, so expect another big drop in the next update. 1/
Exceptional early yield numbers from Rostov, Russia’s top #wheat region. Winter barley yields are at 4.7 mt/ha (87 bu/ac), up 73% year on year. Keep in mind that 2025 was a very weak year though. Still, winter barley yields often correlate well with wheat, which is harvested next. #sizovreport
Diesel prices in Russia are rising fast. Will it impact the new #wheat crop? Wholesale is up ~20% Y/Y and ~20% since January. The main driver: global middle-distillate prices. ICE gasoil doubled from February to April and remains ~20% above February levels. 1/ #oatt #sizovreport
Models are turning hotter for the EU — risks rising, especially for French #wheat. Matif up 2%+ today. #oatt #agwx #sizovreport
