Hunter

@statisticurban.bsky.social

Data scientist │ MS in CS, stats, biochemistry │ Current Econ MS student │ 🇺🇸🇩🇪🇬🇧 Policy-centered tweets about tech, bio, urbanism, economics, & politics

Georgia Republicans are falling off an electoral cliff... If it keeps up, Georgia won't be a swing state for all that long. It'll look more like Virginia and Colorado than Wisconsin.

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Markets expect inflation to run at ~5.3% over the next year. I wonder what a Trump midterm at 5% inflation, a weakening labor market, and war in the Middle East looks like.

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The attacks on Ras Laffan and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz leave the US as very nearly the world's sole helium supplier. Helium is crucial in a huge range of products, including semiconductor manufacturing, welding, fiber optic production, and MRI machines.

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According to new BLS data released this morning, in the entirety of 2025, *just 181,000 new jobs* were added in the US. Compare that to 2024’s average of 168,000 per month. Objectively, the Trump administration has been vastly worse than the Biden administration for job creation.

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The Senate is losing its distinctiveness. People like Bernie, Jon Tester, Elizabeth Warren, Murkowski, Manchin - they fit their states perfectly. But new arrivals like McCormick and Ashley Moody are essentially just “generic Republican number 5.”

Per a new Financial Times article from today: vast parts of the US aren't looking great economically. Many states, including large ones like IL, WA, NJ, GA, and VA, could be in recession. However, the "big 4" (NY, TX, FL, CA) are holding on.

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Per the FT, manufacturing is in the worst economic position of any sector of the economy atm. The US has lost 78,000 manufacturing jobs so far in 2025. Those tariffs sure are working great.

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Minnesota feels like someone picked up an East Coast state and just dropped it in the middle of the upper Midwest. Similarly, Colorado feels like a West Coast state dropped in the Rockies.

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Here's a map of the housing shortage by state. You'll see the South and Midwest generally do better, while the West and Northeast are struggling. And California is... well, it's California.

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Americans aren't choosing to move to, or stay in, blue states. Only 5 states both voted for Kamala Harris and attract more Americans than they lose. Four of them, DE, NH, VT, and ME, are very small states. 21 Trump-voting states have positive domestic migration. Democrats must build housing.

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Nightmare. Five alarm fire. Trump just fired Lisa Cook, a member of the Fed Board of Governors. Trump can only remove her "for cause," i.e. gross negligence or malfeasance. So he charged her with mortgage fraud. Remember this man is guilty of 34 felony counts of falsifying business records.

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It feels wrong to me that Wisconsin is more populated than Minnesota. The Twin Cities are so much bigger than anything in WI. All the mid-size towns and deceptively populous rural areas in WI throw me off.

MAGA seems to think that wages will magically go up if you deport people. But immigration generally slightly raises wages of native workers, or has little impact. And by deporting people, you shrink the entire economy. One less worker, one less consumer, one less taxpayer.

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If conservatives wanted to preserve Cracker Barrel in amber, might I suggest they should have prevented its past three years of quarterly growth from looking like this? Perhaps by eating there?

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