My latest, with David Hastings Dunn: why Trump's stagecraft-over-statecraft funeral diplomacy with Zelensky and Netanyahu couldn't move the dial one either of the increasingly entangled wars in Ukraine and Iran. navigatingthevortex.substack.com/p/trump-zele...
Trump, Zelensky, and Netanyahu in Washington: funeral (of) diplomacy?
By David Hastings Dunn & Stefan Wolff
navigatingthevortex.substack.com
My OSCE Moscow Mechanism findings, presented today: 20,610 deported, 2,264 returned. www.navigatingthevor...
New US strikes on Iran, a revoked oil waiver. The Islamabad MOU manages a pause, not a peace — Lebanon may be the bigger risk. www.navigatingthevor...
Orbán's political exit has unlocked €90 billion in EU loans for Ukraine, but deep divergence on membership terms remains -- and the consequences of a compromise could be disastrous for Ukraine and the EU alike: bit.ly/4d6SU8y
Orbán's election defeat frees €90 billion for Ukraine — but the harder question is EU membership
By Tetyana Malyarenko and Stefan Wolff
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Proudly announcing that my article with @dawnwalsh.bsky.social on "External Involvement in Peace Agreements" has just been published in Nationalism and Ethnic Politics and is free to read and download here: www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.....
External Involvement in Peace Agreements: Providing Physical Security or Facilitating Governance?
Powersharing peace agreements are said to require extensive and prolonged external involvement to facilitate shared governance. However, no comprehensive comparison exists of the roles provided for...
tandfonline.com
Ceasefires tend to collapse as a result of minor incidents that then spiral out of control—my interview with Trevor Phillips on The Times at One: www.navigatingthevortex.com/p/is-the-ame...
"Is the American strategy working or flailing?" — Iran, the blockade, and China
The Iran–US ceasefire expires 22 April. Stefan Wolff on back-channel talks, the blockade risk, and why China is failing its global leadership test.
navigatingthevortex.com
🇲🇩 🇪🇺 New Op-Ed | Standing up to the Kremlin: Lessons from Moldova for defeating Russian election interference By Philip J. Javens & Prof @stefwolff.bsky.social How did Moldova withstand large-scale #Russian FIMI in its 2025 elections? 📖 Read ⬇️ fpc.org.uk/op-ed-standi...
Op-ed | Standing up to the Kremlin: Lessons from Moldova for Defeating Russian Election Interference - The Foreign Policy Centre
Foreign Information Manipulation and Interference (FIMI) has been high on the agenda of liberal democracies for years.[1] The European External Action Service has just published its fourth annual repo...
fpc.org.uk
In addition to our three panels, Ethnopolitics SG emeritus convenors @stefwolff.bsky.social and @tagarin.bsky.social took part alongside @neophytosloizides.bsky.social as discussants at the launch of John McGarry's (@queensucsdd.bsky.social) magisterial new book, The Politics of Domination.
Always a pleasure to cooperate with @rgwhitman.bsky.social... and intellectually productive:
Richard G. Whitman@rgwhitman.bsky.social · 5mo agoIran and Ukraine are changing the EU and testing its unity - analysis with @stefwolff.bsky.social on the end of the EU's age of innocence - theconversation.com/iran-and-ukr...
A reconstituted European alliance, with a coalition at its heart that is not just willing but also capable of deterring Russia, is necessary and possible: bit.ly/40sGX61
After four years of war, an end of the fighting in Ukraine is not in sight
But Kyiv's western allies should no longer be in any doubt about what to do.
navigatingthevortex.com
We have just published Episode 2 of Navigating the Vortex | Ethnopolitics Edition, in which we talk with Tamirace Fakhoury and John Nagle about their work on power sharing and contentious politics in divided societies: bit.ly/4tI9gea
The OSCE – notwithstanding the organisation’s ongoing crisis – still represents an important forum to articulate and negotiate participating States’ national interests: bit.ly/46jVdS4
Why it's worth saving the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe
And what role the UK can play in restoring the organisation's operational effectiveness
navigatingthevortex.com
The inaugural meeting of the Board of Peace will mostly be remembered for its chairman-for-life threatening Iran with war: bit.ly/4tUf44z
Pay-as-you-mediate: Iran, Ukraine and Donald Trump's board of peace
Conflict settlements are not real-estate deals.
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Putin may think that he has successfully tricked Trump into doing his bidding. But on this occasion, Zelensky may have outsmarted them both, albeit at the price of the war against his country continuing. navigatingthevortex.substack.com/p/the-five-p...
The five problems with Trump's latest Ukraine peace plan that will only prolong the war
By Tetyana Malyarenko and Stefan Wolff
navigatingthevortex.substack.com
Proudly announcing my latest co-production which can be pre-ordered here: academic.oup.com/book/62306
Claims of progress in the negotiations in Abu Dhabi are therefore at best over-optimistic and at worst self-deluding: bit.ly/3Mfn2E7
Farcical peace talks continue in Abu Dhabi as Russia tries to bomb and freeze Ukraine into submission
Russia, Ukraine and the US have met for a second time in as many weeks to discuss a possible cessation of hostilities.
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After two rounds of talks in Abu Dhabi, it remains unclear whether an actual negotiation process will now get under way between Russia and Ukraine and what its format and direction will be: bit.ly/4bVyCif
Europe and its few scattered allies elsewhere need to start acting as if they were alone in a hostile world—because they are: bit.ly/4pVO0hV
Trump's performance at Davos underscored America's diminishing trustworthiness and dependability
The consequences for Britain, the EU, and Ukraine are obvious and unpleasant.
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Current transatlantic de-escalation notwithstanding, has Europe done enough to persuade President Trump to change course permanently over Greenland? bit.ly/4adJgj5
Europe's push-back over Greenland forced a Trump climb-down — for now.
But the reprieve is likely only temporary.
navigatingthevortex.com
The war in Ukraine is likely to mark a few more milestones before there is another opportunity to prove again that aggression never pays: bit.ly/4pCQOAB
Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine now outlasts the Soviet fight against Nazi Germany
What does history tell us about Kyiv’s prospects?
navigatingthevortex.com
🇺🇸🇬🇱 The U.S. still depends on defense cooperation with Europe, warns @stefwolff.bsky.social, with any move on #Greenland carrying serious security risks.
The law of the jungle is back — and the US, and much of the rest of the world, will ultimately pay a heavy price for it: bit.ly/3YsbbVV
Trump's Venezuela raid foreshadows more turbulence in a new 'great power' carve-up of the world
It signals the return of the law of the jungle for which the US, and much of the rest of the world, will ultimately pay a heavy price.
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In light of recent US experiences in Afghanistan and Iraq, more instability, not less, will be the likely result of the capture of Maduro: bit.ly/4qFYMtC
The fighting in Ukraine is likely to continue unabated for the time being as neither of the warring sides, nor their backers, appear exhausted enough for peace: bit.ly/4azaQrU
The fall of Siversk caps a difficult year for Ukraine
What the end of the war will look like is as unclear as when and how the sides will get there.
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Internal divisions over Ukraine funding and Mercosur trade deal expose limitations of EU leadership in a world carved up by Washington, Moscow and Beijing: bit.ly/3MEtWD1
A fudge on Ukraine and a delay on Mercosur: how the EU procrastinates and fails to prove Trump wrong
By Richard Whitman & Stefan Wolff
navigatingthevortex.com
EU agrees €90 billion loan to Ukraine, but squabbles over frozen Russian assets expose the bloc’s deep divisions - my analysis with @stefwolff.bsky.social theconversation.com/eu-agrees-90...
EU agrees €90 billion loan to Ukraine, but squabbles over frozen Russian assets expose the bloc’s deep divisions
To placate pro-Moscow governments in Hungary, Slovakia and Czechia, the EU had to include an ‘opt-out’ clause for its support for Ukraine.
theconversation.com
For Europe, deterring Russia and appeasing the US have become existential priorities in a bigger game in which Ukraine might end up as yet another bargaining chip: bit.ly/4abQ8xV
New US national security strategy adds to Ukraine’s woes and exacerbates Europe’s dilemmas
By Tetyana Malyarenko & Stefan Wolff
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Russian repression against Crimean #Tatars in occupied Ukraine follows a pattern. Using a new geo-coded event dataset, researchers Elmira Muratova & @felixschulte.bsky.social map human rights violations & explain why repression is often carried out on Thursdays. More on the #KonKoop DataLab blog ⤵️
Thursdays are for Searches: The Russian Repression Calendar in Occupied Crimea - KonKoop
Authoritarian control follows a grim calculus. The literature on state repression shows that coercion is not random but operates under a highly strategic logic. Russia’s repressive campaign in its occupied territories in Ukraine is no exception. Shortly after the illegal occupation and annexation of Crimea in February and March 2014,…
konkoop.de
